That looks like $10 ng

                                                                                                                                                                                       -134 bcf...............pretty bullish. Market spiked higher but hasn't been able to add to the gains................., here 20 minutes later. Not a bullish sign initially.  

However, the way ng has been trading, we could be sharply higher or lower in an hour.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

The storage deficit with a year ago increased. It's now -620 bcf.

But most of this bullish news was dialed in last week.

I wouldn't be in a hurry to sell, that's for sure.

 This -134 was 24 to the bullish side of the WSJ survey average of -110 and makes it the most bullish in those terms since 1/5/18, which was 26 to the bullish.

 In comparison to years past on a HDD equivalent basis, this was in total contrast to recent weeks probably slightly bullish and at the very least near neutral. Recent weeks have been strongly bearish vs past years. So, this one report was quite the turnaround. However, the market knows that this is just one very bullish report that could be on an island surrounded by more bearish reports to come. If so, prices may not rise much from recent days. If not and if we have a cold winter, look out above!

From Natural Gas Intelligence:

"Jumpy Natural Gas Markets Get Big Bullish Surprise from Season’s First EIA Storage Withdrawal"

The European ensembles actually came out colder early this afternoon but natural gas didn't respond very bullishly as it has been.

tjc made a comment earlier this week. "Who will be left to buy?"

We might be running into some of that right now and/orrrr, today could just have been a buy the rumor, sell the fact profit taking on THE most bullish news of all related to this extreme cold being released and in the rear view trading mirror.

In addition to what Mike said, my guess is that this being a pre-holiday late afternoon had something to do with it. Many folks had already started their holiday weekend. Also, many longs were likely covering. This is not a normal Wed afternoon.

It only takes 1 buyer and no sellers to make the price go up.

That's a good point with regards to natural gas prices having the potential to go extraordinarily high................if the market lacks big sellers that don't want to step in front of the potential for historically low, even precariously low end of season storage levels. 

Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:

"Fickle Natural Gas Futures Shrug Off Bullish EIA Report"

While you can make a case for this to be an unexpected reaction, you can also make a case for the most bullish news of all, that the market has been trading since it gapped higher on Sunday Night of November 5th.........to be out now.

Forecasts were already pretty cold for the past week(with some brief moderations) but the brand of cold coming up, compared to average will not be able to match what we had last week. 

As I've been mentioning in the weather updates, Canada will be drained of all the extreme cold and have mild temperatures relative to their average next week. 

 Even though the origin of our air masses will be coming from Canada and be cold compared to average, the farther south they are driven, the frigid Arctic blasts that have dominated in November will not be repeated on the same scale with next weeks cold.

However, we can get a few snowstorms with this fairly cold pattern that also features alot of precip. A widespread, fairly deep snow pack will defeat the weak, low angled sun from warming and can result in chilling the temperatures by 10 degrees/day  and night over the area covered by snow.

The big wildcard is what is happening in week 2.

This is the point in time that offers the opportunity for cross polar flow to return(like earlier this month) and replenish Canada with some real frigid air, which continues to track south into the US.

The models want to bounce the AO back near 0 at the end of the period but that far out is unreliable and the strongly negative AO in week 2 is a powerful cold metric.

I'm putting the latest 12z Canadian model ensembles below because several of them(more than before) are suggesting the polar vortex will become displaced from its usual position and drop much farther south. This is more likely with an extremely negative AO and NAO. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 06, 2018 12 UTC

With regards to the polar vortex being displaced very far south of its usual position. This is exactly what we have seen so far in November.

The maps from below, were from yesterday. The extreme cold hitting the Great Lakes and Northeast right now are being caused by this.

Boston may have its coldest Thanksgiving in history!

Whatever caused this to happen earlier this month, has a chance to repeat.

    

000h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 20, 2018 12UTC

Thanksgiving Day will be coldest in over a century for millions in U.S.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/thanksgiving-day-will-be-coldest-over-century-millions-us-n938926

The lowest high temperature for a Thanksgiving in New York City came on Nov. 30, 1871, when the mercury fell to 22 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. The coldest Turkey Day in Boston was 19 degrees, in 1873. Philadelphia's coldest Thanksgiving was 28 degrees, in 1901.

New York City is also bracing for winds of 15 mph to 25 mph on Thursday, which had Macy's parade organizers on high alert Wednesday. The parade will go on, but whether the 16 giant balloons will fly is another question.

Any sustained winds of 23 mph or gusts of 34 mph would ground the massive inflatable stars, organizers said. They'll decide Thursday morning whether the balloons will be in action.

 This week's -134 was the earliest 100+ draw on record.

We traders are a funny lot.  Bullish news comes out and we don't necessarily see the reaction we were expecting and we start talking about whether it was priced in or was it really that bullis or the market is looking ahead....etc etc.

I think it's safe to say that it wasn't bearish.  There is no bearish weather coming.  The next 2 weeks will probably be withdrawals too and there is no balmy weather in the next 2-3 weeks that would suggest anything different on the horizon.  It is not a stretch to suggest that if we see some deep blues on weather maps going into January, we are potentially $10 away from where we could be.  You would have to have a heck of a crystal ball to sell NG right now.  Or be walking around with a big pair of crystal balls, if you know what I mean.