Thoughts on corn and beans
13 responses | 0 likes
Started by cfdr - Nov. 26, 2018, 12:13 p.m.

First the corn?

Big crop, but carryover declining.  There is hope here.


Not so much here, IMHO.  Everyone seems to be waiting for the big meeting, but what are the chances either man is ready to make significant concessions?  I think they agree to try to agree sometime in the future.  China will not fold to Trump's demands until things have changed enough that a deal can be made to look like a win for them.  But .  .  .  you never know.

Lots and lots of beans.  If enough are to be exported to make headway, don't we need to be starting to move them soon?  And, Brazil's crop is supposedly coming early, from what I've heard, so the clock is running.

Technically, meal looks like it is working on breaking through a barrier to the downside.

Is the only hope next summer's weather?  That looks questionable too, as there has been a noticeable change in drought patterns in the midwest for the last thirty years. 

By Jim_M - Nov. 26, 2018, 4:34 p.m.
Like Reply

I would be surprised at f we see beans with a $7 handle.  The bearishness is no secret, yet beans have held their value for 6 months now.  

Now that I have said that, sell beans with everything you have because they will probably go to $6. (G)

By bcb - Nov. 26, 2018, 5:37 p.m.
Like Reply

Corn/CHINA lucky they have found all that extra corn. Plus Hog Flu....less feed/protein/Beans.

BUT Imho I think corn cz should hold around 352-350

Beans stocks going to 1 bil. What is so bullish there? If u have been following my weeknd comments u know

I have been buying Jan puts or rallies for the last 2 weeks.

If Sept. beans for the month of Sept had a HIGH of 838.25 and Nov. beans for the month had a low of 832.75 why not Jan beans targeting that area.

What to talk corn acres? Corn doesn't have to do any work for those acres. Just let beans break another 20,30 40 cents. That will buy corn acres.

By cfdr - Nov. 26, 2018, 5:43 p.m.
Like Reply

Yes, that seems too cheap.

The only thing is, like I said, the clock is ticking with SA.

And, farmer's bins are welded shut - so far, at least.  What is it going to take to move those beans?

Just a guess, but looks like a possible cycle low around the holidays.  FWIW.

By bcb - Nov. 26, 2018, 5:47 p.m.
Like Reply

If u want a rally help we are taking the family and grand kids to Maui Xmas day and back New yrs. Day. That should get ya a rally when I'm gone. We hope the kids understand no real xmas gifts this yr HO HO HO

By hayman - Nov. 26, 2018, 8:35 p.m.
Like Reply

It was noticed that Chinese pigs were catching colds back in August.  By any barometer, this is ancient history.  Regards futures trading, it is moldy and well rotted.  By the way, Russia is dealing with this same issue and has it in complete control.  Oh, and to the idea of selling with both hands...  This is how its gonna feel.

By Jim_M - Nov. 26, 2018, 9 p.m.
Like Reply

Per ASF, yes piggies were catching colds in August, but China being who they are, it could be months before the real story is out and how bad it is.

They say ASF is 100% fatal.  I disagree.  I say it is 1000% fatal because if a pig in a group of 10 has the flu, they all are going to get culled.  

With what....800 million pigs, the true damage doesn't happen over night.  That's hard to price.  So piggies are for the most part, supported because of it.  Where the top is, is anyone's guess.  I think we will find out next summer how bad it is when we see if China is importing record amounts of pork.

By frey_1999 - Nov. 26, 2018, 10:19 p.m.
Like Reply

The Market has NO FEAR of bean demand  and it knows that will lead to 7 million more corn acres.

Next year if this trade war continues carryout will balloon  to 1.25 billion beans and 2.5 billion corn which might give the US farmer an opportunity to collect LDP's again. 

By hayman - Nov. 27, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
Like Reply

The touting of supply and demand perceptions conjured up by bean counting bums is merely babbling balderdash.  Cloaked in these confounding opiates, the conclusions made under their influence are actually the exact opposite of what will be.  Such is the nature of back asswards analysis posing as scholarly slop.  Follow the money.  There should be a profitability index identifying posters on trading forums.  Such accountability for trading recommendations provides loads of entertaining insight.  Famous trading wizard once commented that the only utility of most trading forums is to identify the class clowns, the broke braggart dunces, so to speak.  Their batting average is so uncanny wrong that it shines like beacon.

By cfdr - Nov. 27, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
Like Reply

True, but it doesn't tell us much about the current situation in beans.

I've never claimed to have any edge when it comes to corn or beans.  My mind does not want to work on them.  When it comes to cattle, the fundamentals and how they are interpreted are, at times, easier for me.

Now, many years ago - back in the 80s - when we would get into a situation like we appear to be in with beans now, my friend who bought cattle for a packing company would look for the time where the cattle feeders would finally stop fighting the market and, as he put it, "puke them out."

Question - do we need to see something like that prior to a meaningful rally?

By cfdr - Nov. 28, 2018, 9:13 a.m.
Like Reply

One thing I neglected to say here.  In each of the last three declines off of the highs, there was a substantial corrective rally.  If we apply retracement percentages to today's decline, the target would be $5.50/bu monthly cash corn.  IMHO, this could easily occur today - but it would most likely take weather.  The problem with this is that we have seen a major change in weather patterns to fewer droughts in the last thirty years.

Chaotic systems are never completely predictable.

By cutworm - Nov. 28, 2018, 11:23 a.m.
Like Reply

Chaotic systems are never completely predictable.

I think that a lot of Chaotic systems are To big for us to understand all the variables. That does not mean that they are unpredictable. Just bigger than our learning allows. 

By mcfarm - Nov. 28, 2018, 11:28 a.m.
Like Reply

I would be careful there cutworm. We have real savy scientists in our gov who use computer models to predict global warming 100's of years out. Those models are trying to predict things far larger than our microscopic ability ...microscopic compared to mother nature. So I guess we humans we continue to predict and accuracy is optional

By cfdr - Nov. 28, 2018, 11:55 a.m.
Like Reply

I think that a lot of Chaotic systems are To big for us to understand all the variables. That does not mean that they are unpredictable. Just bigger than our learning allows.

And, most likely, they will always be "bigger than our learning allows."

This is a major feature in chaotic systems - there are fractals.  No matter how deep into the pattern you go, you see the same patterns.  In the study of markets, there is a (very) rough example.  You make a model.  It looks good.  It falls apart in real time.  You make an updated version.  It looks good. It falls apart in real time. 

This seems to go on forever.  There is always more complexity no matter how deeply you dig.

And, yes, climate scientists have been running into this for over thirty years.

But, you are at least partially correct.  Sometimes chaotic systems can be predicted  - at least, at some times, these systems can be assigned a probability of being predictable.

I think of them as being infinitely complex.  I have no idea if they indeed are infinitely complex, but they sure seem to be.