KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, December 24, 2018
8:30 AM ET. November CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.24)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.31)
1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early on Christmas Eve. Markets close at 13:00 EST
Tuesday, December 25, 2018
N/A U.S.: Christmas Day. Financial markets closed
N/A Marianas: Christmas Day
Wednesday, December 26, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +3.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.1%)
9:00 AM ET. October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
10:00 AM ET. December Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 14)
Shipments Idx (previous 12)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)
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The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower for the fourth day in a row on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the September 25th reaction low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5842.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6673.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6673.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6840.68. First support is today's low crossing at 6030.00. Second support is the September 25th reaction low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5842.00.
The March S&P 500 closed lower for the seventh day in a row on Friday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 2407.97 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2643.27 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2569.65. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2643.27. First support is today's low crossing at 2412.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 2407.97.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 22,219.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,401.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23,791.53. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,401.16. First support is today's low crossing at 22,396.34. Second support is weekly support crossing at 22,219.11.
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March T-bonds closed up 13-points at 144-26.
March T-bonds closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 146-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 146-00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 146-22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 143-21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142-04.
March T-notes closed up 25-points at 121-020.
March T-notes closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 121.200 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.063 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 121.135. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 121.200. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.215. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.063.
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February crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.16.First support is today's low crossing at 45.13. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.
February heating oil closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 194.43 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 194.43. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 204.35. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 162.34.
February unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 124.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 151.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 151.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is today's low crossing at 128.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 124.09.
February Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.083 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.388 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.852. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.083. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.388. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.154.
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The March Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends Thursday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 95.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 97.20. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the reaction low crossing at 95.38. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91.
The March Euro closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. If March extends Thursday's rally, November's high crossing at 116.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.92. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2749 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2749. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2922. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2540. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off last-Tuesday's high, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.0252. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0256. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0097. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.82. First support is today's low crossing at 73.70. Second support is the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67.
The March Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. If March extends Thursday's rally, the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0892 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 0.0909. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is December's low crossing at 1.0886. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0885.
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February gold closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1235.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1270.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1285.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1235.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1216.80.
March silver posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.585 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 15.040 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 14.915. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 15.040. First support is the reaction low crossing at 14.115. Second support is November's low crossing at 13.985.
March copper closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, August's low crossing at 260.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.61 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 265.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 260.00.
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March Corn closed up 3 1/4-cents at 3.78 1/2.
March corn closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the September-November uptrend line crossing near 3.72 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is the September-November uptrend line crossing near 3.72. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed down 10-cents at 5.13 1/2.
March wheat closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/4 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 6 3/4-cents at 5.02 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.57. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.90. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 6 3/4-cents at 5.61 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.81 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is today's low crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.
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January soybeans closed down 8 3/4-cents at 8.84 3/4.
January soybeans closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.86 3/4 opens the door for a test of the reaction low crossing at 8.57. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 917. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.57. Second support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2.
March soybean meal closed down $1.90 at 310.10.
March soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 305.30 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 327.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 321.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil closed down 35 pts. at 28.13.
March soybean oil lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 27.42 is the next downside target. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 29.09 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 29.74. First support is today's low crossing at 28.51. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
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February hogs closed down $1.25 at $61.03.
February hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.26. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 68.83. First support is today's low crossing at 61.03. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $0.35 at 122.70.
February cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 123.67 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 121.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 123.28. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 123.67. First support is Monday's low crossing at 123.67. Second support is December's crossing at 119.82.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.08 at $147.35.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.58 would open the door for a possible test of the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. If January resumes the decline off last Thursday's high, December's low crossing at 143.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is the November 21st reaction high crossing at 150.00. First support is December's low crossing at 143.13. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.
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March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 24.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.98 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower for the fifth day in a row on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks again tallpine!