ISM Comes in well below expectations.
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Started by TimNew - Jan. 3, 2019, 11:18 a.m.

I've always considered the ISM MFG measure to be a solid indicator of US Manufacturing.  It came in at a relatively weak 54.1 this morning.  Looking at the history, this is not a bad/weak level but is the lowest we've seen since Nov 16 in a trend that has followed closer to 60 (historical highs).  In this measure, anything above 50 indicates growth,  but a near 6 point drop in one month bears watching.

Coupled with Apples earnings advisory and a nervous market just got more nervous.

By wglassfo - Jan. 3, 2019, 11:46 a.m.
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I am willing to bet nobody paid one bit of attention or even read my post warning about AAPL being over priced

I'm not sure if the post was last week or longer ago

One thing I omitted in the post because I could not confirm was citi cutting back on APPL products in 1st qtr although china sales were not mentioned, which surprised me. It appears AAPL is in for reduced sales going forward

We all know the large part AAPL has in the total index

By pj - Jan. 3, 2019, 12:02 p.m.
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As you probably saw, Consumer Confidence dropped for the 2nd straight month in December, after hitting an 18-yr high in October. My guess the sharp drop in the stock market had a lot to do with it.

By wglassfo - Jan. 3, 2019, 12:21 p.m.
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I could never figure out why consumer confidence would drop in an environment such as we have today. 

I could understand if something happened to take a big chunk of disposable income out of the monthly budget, but gas price is low, everything seems some what stable

By TimNew - Jan. 3, 2019, 12:27 p.m.
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There is historically a strong correlation between the stock market and consumer confidence so the recent decline is likely related.  CC is still in the stratosphere, relatively speaking,  but we've definitely seen a decline.

OTOH, ADP is showing the largest private sector jobs growth in 2 years.   But,  I am seeing "nibbling" at the edges of what had been phenomenal eco-indicators.