My favorite topic. Reading a report this morning lamenting about dry and hot in Central SA and how it's taken about 5-8 Millions tons off the bottom line. Almost as an after thought, there is a off hand comment that Argentina's crop will be 20 Million tons larger than last years drought stricken crop.
News just loves a bullish story, but again, this is a topic that is anything but bullish. Even with a smaller SA crop, it is STILL a big crop.
that being said the story for the next few weeks has to be SA weather and chiiiiina {wow whatever happened to Russia russia Russia every minute of every hour on the news}
and the energy seems to breaking to the up ...don't stand if front of trains or in this case a slow moving ride at the local amusement park
I guess, but overall the end game is still an overall crop that could be 20 MT bigger than last years. Not to mention when does harvest start? I also read a Chinese hog farm with 100K head has ASF and cases are popping up every where.
China bought 11 more bean cargoes today for state reserves.
In another couple weeks, SA will be feeding China with a fresh load of beans.
Export inspections reported earlier today. Nothing to write home about, corn was especially mediocre:
I think that the extremely heavy rains in N.Argentina may be at least as big of a factor as the dry weather in Brazil:
Last GFS has a 20 inch max for 2 week totals:
Crop calendar for Argentina:
http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Argentina-Crop-Cycles
Crop Calendar for Brazil:(beans were planted a couple of weeks early this year....will be ready early:
http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles
Soybeans flowering and setting pods.
arc has argentina wet to flooding and brazil hot and dry
Craig Solberg @CraigSolberg 1h1 hour ago
Nice 4-day rain totals in an area of Brazil/Paraguay that really needed it
kory is shaving beans from 116...one firm put out a 110...way to pessimistic kory says. The areas that got rain have more potential the areas that did not are hurt...30% in parana...50% good and 20 ave he says. most of those soils down there have little water holding capacity and they need rain very few days.... heat in the map for the next week
Not much change in the South America weather in week 1. Possibly as much as 10 inches of rain in parts of Argentina, not much in Brazil.
Some week 2 models shift the rains farther north, into day Southern Brazil. We'll have to see about that.
Still no rain for bone dry Central Brazil out 2 weeks.
Note how dry that its been in Brazil the past 30 days.........wet in Argentina:
Weekly #ethanol rebounded as we move away from the holidays. However, the seasonal rebound was not enough to offset our general concerns.