Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 11:52 a.m.

It's January 12th.......   Just another day?  Do something special for somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a it now.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Snow maker moving east today. The real Winter weather is coming up later this month!!!  

Here are the latest hazards across the country:

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     





Winter Weather

Image result for image of snowflakes

Snowfall the next day:

Forecast Hour:  024
Image URL:




Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning


By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and tomorrow.

Seasonal cold.   



By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 11:55 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Colder than the recent pattern  but not too bad by January standards.............until the end of next week, when frigid Arctic air starts diving into the NorthCentral US.

This will define the weather in week 2!

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 11:56 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?


The real cold is after this period.

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 11:59 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

Pretty quiet next week.........until late. Arctic blast in the North, southern stream storm in the South.

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, noon
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By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 12:03 p.m.
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Current Dew Points

Pretty dry air in place across much of the country but enough moisture for this current weather maker to produce half a foot of snow in some places.
Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours



You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      


     Soil moisture anomaly:

Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.


Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 12:08 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................12Z ensembles from SATURDAY:
Analysis starting from 6 days ago:

Sunday: MUCH milder than previous solutions. Mild members now outnumber cold ones. Still great uncertainty as week 2 progresses. Enough cross polar flow and bitter cold lurking just north of the US border so that any cold fronts with a decent southward push could be quite potent.  

Monday: Looks a bit colder today. Same potentially Frigid pattern.

Tuesday: Coldest yet.  Cross polar flow. Polar vortex displaced south.

Wednesday: Same pattern but not as cold as the last 2 days.

Thursday: Still the same very cold pattern, a tad colder than yesterday.

Friday: Still the same very cold pattern with everything above applying. Polar vortex displaced south with cross polar flow and very northern stream dominant, which penetrates deeply across the US/Canadian border. Ridge West/Trough Midwest/East couplet.

Saturday/Today: Not quite as amplified on the ensemble mean/average because a few members undercut the northern stream with Pacific flow.

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jan 27, 2019 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 12:13 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with a week ago:

Sunday: Coldest of the models(European ensemble was pretty mild). Ridge West, trough East extends pretty far north, to the higher latitudes. This will bring frigid air south across Canada. The most likely point of deep penetration into the US, will be in the Northeast. 

Monday: 0z run was the coldest yet. Bone chilling cold! Polar vortex takes an excursion south, aimed towards Southeast Canada.

Tuesday: Similar to yesterday. Ridge west, trough east couplet. Cold focused on the Northeast.

Wednesday: Same pattern but not quite as cold.

Thursday: Very cold with cold aimed a bit farther west on some solutions, more towards the Midwest vs Northeast vs yesterday.

Friday/Today: Extreme cold pattern. Ridge West/Trough East transports frigid air from high latitudes deeply south of US border..........similar agreement to Canadian ensembles above.

Saturday/Today: Same as yesterday. Almost universal agreement vs the Canadian model ensembles, now having a minority with undercutting southern stream.  The European model ensembles agreed with this too.

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 12:16 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Sunday: AO still negative and changeable/uncertain but without the extreme negative solutions of previous days......still favors cold delivery south from high latitudes. NAO  around zero and PNA slightly positive. Tipping odds for cold in the Northeast. 

Monday: AO negative, favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to mid latitudes. NAO near 0(but actual weather maps seem like they would generate a -NAO) PNA a bit positive.......favorable for cold to push into USA in the Midwest/East.

Tuesday: AO really dives lower at the end of week 2, almost to record low levels. This favors extreme cold traveling from north/high latitudes to south/mid latitudes. NAO is close to zero. PNA is slightly positive. 

Wednesday: AO still plunges during week 2, favorable for cold to move from north to south in Canada into the US. NAO close to zero, NAO slightly positive.

Thursday: AO still negative(favorable for extreme cold to move south) but not a low as recent solutions, with a couple of exceptions. NAO goes from a bit positive to slightly negative at the end of the period. PNA slightly positive. 

Friday: AO now extremely negative, to the bottom of the graph negative on some solutions. Strongly favors bitter cold moving from high to middle latitudes. NAO more negative than the last few days............helps push the cold into the US, especially Midwest/East. PNA a bit positive.........also helps cold pattern.

Saturday: AO still negative but not as extreme. NAO close to zero, leaning negative late. PNA modestly positive.  Still strongly favors cold, just quite as extreme as yesterday.

The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2019, 12:17 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks should continue to get much colder...........and colder!!

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability