KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
8:30 AM ET. December PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. January Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 10.9)
Employment Idx (previous 26.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 14.5)
Prices Received (previous 12.8)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +7.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +8.9%)
10:00 AM ET. January IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 52.6)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 46.4)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +10.2M)
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The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to high prices are possible near-term. If March extend the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6674.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6388.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6674.94. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6897.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50. Second support is December's low crossing at 5820.50.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2636.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2517.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2636.38. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2656.60. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 2317.70.
The Dow closed lower on Monday as weaker-than-expected China trade data sparked fresh fears of a global economic slowdown. Corporate results are also now in play as fourth-quarter earnings season gets under way. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,408.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,338.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 22,638.41.
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March T-bonds closed down 7-points at 145-17.
March T-bonds closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-13 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-13. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 144-13.
March T-notes closed unchanged at 121-305.
March T-notes closed unchanged on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.182 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.270 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.270. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.182. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.280.
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March crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.71. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. First support is December's low crossing at 45.13. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 41.48.
March heating oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 176.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35.
March unleaded gas closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 159.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.72. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 159.42. First support is December's low crossing at 124.24. Second support is the January-10th 2016 low crossing at 112.40.
March Henry natural gas gapped up and closed above the December 31st gap crossing at 3.126 and the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.511 on Monday confirming that a short-term low has been posted. Today's gap up left a nine-day island bottom, another bullish sign that a major bottom has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.511 is the next upside target. Closes below today's gap crossing at 3.002 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.511. Second resistance is the December 20th reaction high crossing at 3.659. First support is today's gap crossing at 3.002. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.771.
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The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.46. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.91. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.
The March Euro closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 116.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is January's low crossing at 113.78. Second support is December's low crossing at 113.62.
The March British Pound closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.2957 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2957. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. First support is January's low crossing at 1.2512. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0204 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0204. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0157.
The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 76.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 76.15. First support is December's low crossing at 73.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.93.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0914 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0914.
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April gold closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1244.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1264.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1244.90.
March silver closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.287 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.681. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.287.
March copper closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.19. First support is January's low crossing at 254.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.
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March Corn closed up 1-cents at 3.79 1/4.
March corn closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last-Thursday's loss. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March takes out December's low crossing at 3.72 1/2, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next likely downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. First support is December's low crossing at 3.72 1/2. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed down 4 3/4-cents at 5.14 3/4.
March wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.17 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 1/2-cents at 4.99.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target.First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 4 1/2-cents at 5.65 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.72 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.72 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
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March soybeans closed down 5 3/4-cents at 9.04 1/2.
March soybeans closed lower on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.05 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.05 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 9.41. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.72 1/4. First support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $2.50 at 312.10.
March soybean meal closed lower on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.50 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 317.10 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 305.30.
March soybean oil closed down 4 pts. at 28.40.
March soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 29.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.09. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is December's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
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February hogs closed down $0.80 at $61.85.
February hogs closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 59.25 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.87. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 66.80. First support is December's low crossing at 60.20. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.
February cattle closed up $0.45 at 125.43.
February cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 125.65. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.73. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 120.47.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.50 at $144.40.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 149.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 142.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 9.51 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 11.02 is the next upside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 13.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Monday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!