KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, February 25, 2019  

8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous 0.27)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.16)

10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade * Release delayed from 8 Feb due to

                    the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January

                      Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 1.0)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 14.5)

  N/A               Trump departs en route for Vietnam for second meeting with

                    Kim Jong Un

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6962.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6962.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6685.19.  

The March S&P 500 gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 2823.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2738.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is November's high crossing at 2823.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2738.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2629.94.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144-29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.

March T-notes was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 121.190 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.220. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

April crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 58.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 57.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.09.  

April heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 223.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 185.02. 

April unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 182.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 166.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 166.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.15. 

April Henry natural gas gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 2.813 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.684 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.813. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.872. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.684. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 97.12. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.00. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 94.87.    

The March Euro was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.41. First support is February's low crossing at 112.76. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.   

The March British Pound was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 1.3252 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2903 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3127. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3252. First support is February's low crossing at 1.2791. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.  

The March Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0022 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0022. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0114. First support is February's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902. 

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.19 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.19. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0910 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0910. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0892.

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1322.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1376.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1304.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1300.00.  

May silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.626 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 16.295. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.626. Second support is January's low crossing at 15.280. 

May copper was higher overnight and spiked above the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76 as it extends the rally off January's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.81.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

May corn was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.89 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May renews the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 3.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.92 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.95. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.77. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.75.  

May wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.69 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.44 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 4.79 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.69 3/4. 

May Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 3/4-cents at 4.66.

May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. If May resumes the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 4.56 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.98 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.82 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.98 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.57 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.56 3/4.  

May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.77 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.77 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

May soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.34 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.53. First support is January's low crossing at 9.04 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.

May soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 314.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 306.60. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.70.  

May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, February's high crossing at 31.32 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 32.02. First support is the reaction low crossing at 29.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.53.

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed down $0.50 at $55.45. 

April hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 51.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.57. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 63.33. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.   

April cattle closed up $0.28 at 128.88. 

April cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 129.60. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.44. Second support is January's low crossing at 123.50.   

April Feeder cattle closed down $0.23 at $145.30. 

April Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144.37 would open the door for a possible test of January's low crossing at 142.63. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 146.88 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.88. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

May coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.46 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

May cocoa closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the December high crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target.       

May sugar closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at 14.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.   

May cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.79 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.