Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:07 a.m.

Hello March 7th!   Do something to warm somebody's heart today. Don't just think about it. Then think about it.............and how you just made somebody's world a tiny bit better. 

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max. Here's the latest weather..... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere. Time to warm up!!!

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     


Wind map    Hit this with your cursor: 

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Wind Chill Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Winter Weather

Image result for image of snowflakes

Snowfall the next 3 days:


Forecast Hour:  084
Image URL:




Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:08 a.m.
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Bitter Cold recedes quickly!. 


By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:09 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Warming up!

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:10 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Less intense cold blues from previous maps, shifting back into the N.Plains to West. Back to near average elsewhere.....reds start growing in the South, then East.

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:10 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


Pacific energy and weather systems make the scene late week and afterwards with some southern stream action. Becoming very active in the midsection!

Where will the heavy snow be with Winter Storms?

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:11 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

 Precip really increases east of the Rockies, starting late this week.....then very active.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:12 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

Bone dry air but the moisture is returning.
Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours



You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:22 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles from THURSDAY:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last Thursday: The trough in the middle of the country is not as deep and on numerous solutions is in Southeast Canada and connected to some northern stream flow. The western 2/3rds of the US look to have more zonal, west to east Pacific flow.

Friday: The zonal west to east, mild Pacific flow, now across the entire country is almost universal....very strong agreement. 

Saturday: VERY MILD. Zonal west to east Pacific flow.

Sunday:  VERY MILD, zonal, west to east Pacific flow.

Monday:  Still very mild, zonal Pacific flow. Some minor/subtle changes in the Northeast(from a few solutions) that might cause more troughing/cooling that need to be watched to see if they amount to anything down the road.

Tuesday: Several solutions showing more troughing East. The mean still looks zonal and mild but the changes continue to be slight and in the colder direction. 

Wednesday:  Around the same as Tuesday. Overall a mild zonal look to the mean but with some subtle ridge/west, tough/east tendencies, that on some solutions, is amplified enough to engage northern stream cold. 

Thursday: Back to being milder again. Zonal Pacific west to east flow prevalent on the majority but not all solutions. The upper level low in Northeast Canada is too far north on most solutions to impart northern stream cold very far southward into the US. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Mar 22, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:25 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with a week ago:

Last Thursday: Will there be a ridge in the Southeast that extends northward from the southern stream or will there be an upper level low in Southeast Canada from the northern stream that has influence southward? The ridge wins on this model. 

Friday: Cold air supply cut off. Mild west to east or even southwest to northeast steering currents. Possible weak intrusions of cold in the Northeast. 

Saturday:  Mild. 

Sunday: The source for the bitter cold that we are currently experiencing is completely cut off. Cold fronts will not be that cold. 

Monday: Unlike the Canadian ensembles, the GFS ensembles are more bullish with the northern stream. Some of them build a ridge/west, trough/east(downstream) couplet that would usher in the cold from Canada. This was mentioned on Sunday afternoon in a special update when it first started showing up............but that doesn't mean that it will happen. Just an interesting new development for what the models think(guess) will be happening in 2 weeks.

Tuesday: Still moving in the colder direction on the majority of solutions with more troughing in the Northeast noted on all of them now.

Wednesday: Ridge west/trough east is slightly less amplified today on several of the solutions(less northern stream connection) but still the main feature to be watching at the end of week 2.

Thursday: Ridge west/trough east couplet vs undercutting Pacific flow is the battle. Overnight models were a  milder in the center of the country and shifted to cold from the northern stream farther east, to the far Northeast US from the couplet mentioned.

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:29 a.m.
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Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above)

Last Thursday: Cold air supply completely cut off!!!

Friday: Cold air supply completely cut off!!!  Mid March looks very mild.

Saturday: Same as previous days.

Monday:  Upper level ridge building along the West Coast into Canada with troughing and the end of 2 weeks. This is cooler for that period than the last several days. The Euro ensembles started this on Saturday Night and the Sun PM GFS ensembles caught on as noted on the special Weather Sunday update yesterday ahead of the natural gas open, then following it.  This doesn't mean it will happen........just that a few more model solutions show it.........while others still do not.

Tuesday: You can see the modest upper level ridge in W.Canada and trough downstream on the anomaly below. Turning cold again in the east and during the late parts of March if this is right.

Wednesday: Similar to yesterday but the anomalies are a tad weaker.

Thursday: Actually, the ridge/west, trough/east couplet today looks a bit stronger but the downstream upper level trough/low anomaly is much farther Eastern Canada.......which allows more of the warmth from the western ridge to push farther east and the cold from the downstream trough to be mainly in Southeast Canada vs south of the border.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:32 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Saturday: Positive AO and NAO, slight negative PNA not favorable for widespread cold to penetrate deeply in the the US.

Sunday: Noteworthy changes in these indices continue. AO now even more strongly positive.........unfavorable for cold to be transported from high latitudes to low latitudes. NAO is positive and PNA a bit negative, also not favorable for cold in the East. This makes cold air outbreaks late in  week 2 and beyond to be less likely in the East.

Monday: More changes. The AO is still solidly positive(not good for cold) but dropping late now. The NAO stays positive, not good for cold in the East but the PNA, which is negative, increases toward zero late in week 2. Tomorrow will likely bring more changes.

Tuesday: AO is positive but falling during week 2 but still just above 0 at the end. NAO stays a bit positive. PNA is negative but almost gets back to 0 at the end. Nothing to use as a strong indicator at the end of week 2..........and these indices are best as indicators during the Winter............which is winding down.

Wednesday: AO now goes from very strongly positive in week 1 to plunging in week 2..........all the way back to 0 at the end of the period............opening the door for slightly better chances of cold going from higher to mid latitudes. NAO stays slightly positive(makes it tough for cold to penetrate very far south along the East Coast. PNA increases back to 0 in week 2. Still not anything powerful. 

Thursday: AO which is strongly previously, drops in week 2 and is close to zero at the end. NAO stays a bit positive, PNA close to 0 at the end of 2 weeks.  Nothing substantive to provide a clue on the pattern for later in March. 

Friday: AO which is strongly positive .................similar to yesterday drops close to zero at the end of 2 weeks. NAO slightly positive, PNA a bit negative going to near zero at the end of 2 weeks. Nothing big.

Sunday: AO slowly drops from a stout positive to near 0 at the end of week 2. NAO slightly positive, PNA around 0. Nothing substantive, except to say that extreme cold outbreaks are not likely. 

Monday: AO drops faster in week 2, now with numerous solutions solidly negative..........increasing chances for cold in the high latitudes to be transported towards the mid latitudes during the 2nd part of March. However, the very wide spread indicated uncertainty/low confidence. NAO has increasing spread and uncertainty on both sides of zero. PNA too but the trend for the PNA is up and most solutions are now positive at the end of 2 weeks vs previously around zero. This has also elevated the chances for cold to penetrate south vs the last few days using these indices.

Tuesday: AO continues to look more favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to mid latitudes in late March. Going from positive in week 1 and plunging in week 2, to negative by the end. NAO around zero. PNA increasing to positive which enhances the chance of cold penetrating into the US, east of the Rockies. 

Wednesday:  AO only drops to zero now at the end of week 2..............less favorable for frigid air to travel from high to mid latitudes. NAO stays a bit positive............also less favorable for cold. PNA is a bit positive, which still favors cold. None of the indices are very powerful forecast tools right today.

Thursday: AO which is positive, drops but only close to zero. NAO stays a bit positive, PNA also positive.........favorable for a ridge and warmth in the West. Other than that, nothing profound.

The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:34 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Updated this afternoon:


Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:36 a.m.
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Previous posts:

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Saturday            


                By wxgrant - March 2, 2019, 12:37 p.m.            

The EURO Ensembles really warm up the Southeast next weekend and then all of Canada and the eastern seaboard the following week. The GFS warms as well but not as much as the EURO. 


                                        Re: Weather Saturday            


                By mikempt - March 2, 2019, 2:51 p.m.            


Thurs evening into Friday we had four inches of snow here in Valley forge. We had sleet and freezing rain Friday night. Its cold and gray here today,more snow tomorrow evening!






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                Re: Re: Weather Sunday            




                By metmike - March 3, 2019, 10:14 a.m.            


                                Like                Reply            


      Craig Solberg  2              


Afternoon highs yesterday and their departure from normal for the northern Plains HUGE are seeing temperatures 30+, 40+, even 50+ degrees below normal "Stupid" cold for any time of year...but especially for March 2








                Re: Weather Sunday            


                By WxFollower - March 3, 2019, 3:24 p.m.            


 There's a serious tornado threat ongoing as I type this in parts of south-central AL eastward into central GA in places in or near locations such as Montgomery, AL, and Macon, GA! Several tornadoes have at least been radar suggested, including at least one large one!



                Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By metmike - March 3, 2019, 3:36 p.m.            


Thanks Larry!

SPC Products Overview




                Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By metmike - March 3, 2019, 4:07 p.m.            

            Special Weather update:

An interesting change during the late week 2 period is the Euro ensembles want to build some ridging in the West with downstream troughing and cooling. They've shown this for the past 2 model runs.

The last 12z operational GFS is never to be trusted in week 2 but it has an extreme version, with high latitude, upper level ridging/blocking and a deep low underneath that which tracks across the northern tier and is in the East at the end of the period.

This, however is NOT an outlier. The ensemble mean is mild but misleading. Around half the solutions try to build a ridge/west, trough downstream couplet late in week 2, similar to the European model ensembles. This would cause the East and Midwest to be colder than most of the runs for the last few days have suggested as we hit 2 weeks out. 

This is a new development but still just something to watch to see if it continues...........or reverts back to a continuation of mild flow. 

The solutions below are day 15, which is at 384 hours....for the last 12z GFS ensembles




                Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            


                By metmike - March 6, 2019, 11:19 a.m.            


      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  11m11 minutes ago              




Corn Belt winter (i.e. last three months) 5th wettest ever Last 6 months and last 9 months...wettest ever recorded Yeah, it's wet outside











                Re: Weather Wednesday            


                By silverspiker - March 6, 2019, 5:24 p.m.            


.... more than 22 horses have died in the last 2 months out at Santa Anita Race Track .... weather....

Nearly 1,500 pulses of lightning recorded off Southern California coast in 5 minutes

Nearly 1,500 pulses of lightning recorded off Southern California coast in 5 minutes

A band of thunderstorms that stretched from southern Kern County past the Channel Islands was producing a dramatic lightning show Tuesday night in the Southern California sky.

In one five-minute stretch alone, shortly after 8 p.m., the National Weather Service recorded 1,489 pulses of lightning off the coast, 231 over Santa Barbara County and 40 in Los Angeles County, said Kathy Hoxsie, a meteorologist with the weather service in Oxnard.

“It’s a lot,” she said. “We usually don’t get that.”

Those numbers appeared to taper off later Tuesday evening. The storms were expected to move into Ventura and Los Angeles counties overnight.

“There’s no guarantee that they’ll hold together, but it looks pretty good right now,” Hoxsie said.

People wanting to catch a glimpse of the show should do so from indoors, Hoxsie said, noting that lightning can strike 10 or 12 miles away from a storm. Los Angeles County sheriff’s officials decided to land a department helicopter because of the extreme weather.

A Delta flight to Seattle returned to Los Angeles International Airport after getting struck by lightning, said Los Angeles Airport Police Officer Rob Pedregon. No injuries were reported.

Later in the evening, a lightning strike caused a brief power outage at three terminals, said LAX spokesman Charles Pannunzio.

“It is dangerous for people to go outside and watch the lightning,” Hoxsie said. “People think they’re safe because it’s not on top of where they’re standing, but that’s not accurate.”

Here are some of the striking images captured during Tuesday’s lightning show:

By metmike - March 7, 2019, 11:42 a.m.
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      Craig Solberg43              


Palmer Drought Severity Index for February for the Corn Belt was the 2nd highest on record, almost identical to the February level of 1994 (after the Great Floods of 1993) Yeah, it is wet out there...



By metmike - March 7, 2019, 3:36 p.m.
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12z GFS ensembles was much colder in the late period, starting around day 10. This caused natural gas to go higher. 

Euro ensembles a tad colder pattern for that period too.

Canadian ensembles also colder then.