WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast March 13, 2019
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Started by metmike - March 12, 2019, 11:33 p.m.


"The WTI Crude Oil market tried to rally during most of the trading session on Tuesday but found resistance yet again at the $57 region. Because of this we ended up forming a bit of a shooting star, suggesting that we are going to continue to bounce around in the same consolidation area that we have been in for some time now."

By metmike - March 12, 2019, 11:35 p.m.
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Crude price the last week......................breaking out to the upside?:

Crude 2 months below

Crude......longer term............9 years below

By metmike - March 12, 2019, 11:35 p.m.
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Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil. 




Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline. 





Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast). 



By metmike - March 12, 2019, 11:36 p.m.
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Here are the latest gas prices across the country:


Why are west coast gasoline prices higher?


The two main reasons are transportation and taxes. Part of the cost of gasoline is what it costs to take refined product and transport it to the end user. Below is a map of the main refineries and pipeline in North America.

You can see that the west coast has a much smaller amount of infrastructure than other parts of the map. As a result, more of your gasoline is refined in places that require it to be shipped by transportation.

The second reason is that the states on the West Coast have used fuel taxes more than the average.

If you add to that state requirements about how the gasoline is blended based on the various state environmental air quality and emissions standards, you can tweak the price again. The addition of MTBE or ethanol seasonally, further adds cost to a gallon.

Both coast tax their gasoline beyond the norm. Add to that in California they require 2 to 3 times as many fuel mixes as any other state which increases the cost again.

By Richard - March 13, 2019, 9:57 a.m.
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WTIC is headed to the mid 60's in the near future. This back and forth is just preparing a base to launch from. Still long 2 futures and 2 minis. 

By Jim_M - March 13, 2019, 11:19 a.m.
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I agree.  I don't think OPEC rests until WTI is in...at least....the mid 60 range.  The higher brent goes, the more likely the US is going to ship barrels offshore.  

By metmike - March 13, 2019, 1:34 p.m.
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From Tuesday:

EIA trims US oil production outlook to 12.3 million b/d in 2019, 13.03 million b/d in 2020            

EIA raises 2019 price forecast to $62.78/b for Brent, $56.13/b for WTI



US to become net oil exporter on a monthly basis in December


EIA sees US gasoline prices staying below 2018 average through 2020


EIA raises 2019 price forecast to $62.78/b for Brent, $56.13/b for WTI


    Washington —     The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday trimmed its outlook for domestic crude production by 110,000 b/d for 2019 and by 170,000 b/d for 2020 on lower expectations out of the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the Niobrara and Anadarko shale plays.

By metmike - March 13, 2019, 1:41 p.m.
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Great analysis/discussion from some seasoned veterans:

Crude Oil EIA Report Analysis with Tom & Tommy O'Brien - March 13th, 2019


By metmike - March 13, 2019, 1:45 p.m.
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EIA number for crude:

      https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Latest ReleaseMar 13, 2019Actual-3.862MForecast2.655MPrevious7.069M                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Mar 13, 2019 10:30-3.862M2.655M7.069M
Mar 06, 2019 11:307.069M1.203M-8.647M
Feb 27, 2019 11:30-8.647M2.842M3.672M
Feb 21, 2019 12:003.672M3.080M3.633M
Feb 13, 2019 11:303.633M2.668M1.263M
Feb 06, 2019 11:301.263M2.179M0.919M

Show more

By metmike - March 13, 2019, 1:49 p.m.
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All the energies have historically been very strong at this time of year!


Crude Oil

Rohöl saisonal

By silverspiker - March 13, 2019, 7:03 p.m.
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crude oil has alot of daily slop.... not this time....

... to the moon Alice...

By metmike - March 15, 2019, 11:34 p.m.
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Oil Prices To Skyrocket If U.S. Shale Stalls


"A collapse of production in Venezuela, aggressive production curtailments from OPEC+, relatively strong demand and an economy humming along – and oil prices are still sharply below the highs seen last year.

To be sure, oil has bounced just about to the highest level since November, and a confluence of bullish forces seem to be pushing prices in an upward direction. But in years past, news that an oil producer like Venezuela suddenly saw production fall from over 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) down to 500,000 or 600,000 bpd overnight would have sent prices skyward. Now crude jumps by a buck or so.

The reason for the relative restraint is that the market has been anticipating U.S. shale production to grow at an unchecked rate. In January, the EIA predicted the U.S. would average 12.1 mb/d of oil production this year. A month later, the agency revised that forecast up by a massive 300,000 bpd to 12.4 mb/d. It was a familiar narrative. U.S. shale continues to exceed prior expectations.

However, the EIA just downgraded its forecast for the first time in six months. The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook sees output averaging 12.3 mb/d. It’s a rather minor downward revision, but the direction is important."

By Jim_M - March 17, 2019, 10:41 a.m.
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A refinery caught fire yesterday and is shut down.  That should give liquid energies a nice pop tonight.