Monthly US Dollar Index
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Started by tallpine - April 15, 2019, 9:16 p.m.

By metmike - April 15, 2019, 11:18 p.m.
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Looks like we are smack dab in the middle between the early 2017 top and the early 2018 bottom.

A strengthening dollar would not be good for export demand(making our products more expensive vs their currencies), especially for grains which need some help right now.

A weaker dollar would have the opposite affect............make our products cheaper to foreign customers. 

The FRED® Blog


Dollar strength and the trade balance

"Over the past three decades, the trade-weighted dollar index has varied significantly. For example, from the second quarter of 1995 to the first quarter of 2002, the index increased from 90 to 127, an appreciation of the dollar of over 40 percent. The corresponding trade balance-to-trade ratio drops from around –6 percent to –16 percent. In general, we see a negative relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance.

However, the influence of the exchange rate on the trade balance varies over time. The recent appreciation of the dollar of 20 percent from 2014 to 2016 worsened the trade balance ratio only slightly. The trade balance’s tepid response is likely because of other changes to trade conditions, such as tariffs and regulations. The persistence of the U.S. trade deficit is also noteworthy. Throughout the 22-year span covered in our sample period, the U.S. continuously ran a trade deficit despite the large variation present in the exchange rate. In other words, adjustments to the exchange rate have not removed the U.S. trade deficit even in the long run."