Weather Wednesday
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Started by metmike - April 17, 2019, 11:51 a.m.

Happy April 17th!   Do something to make somebody feel LUCKY today. Don't just think about it. Then think about it.............and how you just made somebody's world a tiny bit greener. 

Our local chess tournament last month got some great coverage. I'm extraordinarily proud of the kids and also the adults that helped run this event:

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere. Big storm this week with heavy rain and severe weather.  This is going to really start to matter for corn planting, that, ideally should begin in earnest within 3 weeks.............but probably not this year in many places. Overnight models were a bit drier again and quite a bit warmer again compared to a couple of days ago(improving planting prospects vs then)

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     


Wind map    Hit this with your cursor: 

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Wind Chill Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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Warm and Windy!


By metmike - April 17, 2019, 11:53 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Chilly late this week............then big warming.

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 11:54 a.m.
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Average Temperature anomalies for days 3-7:

Widespreak  above average but with a chilly start/early in the period .

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 11:59 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

Weak systems next week.

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:01 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:03 p.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

A large  area of moderate/heavy rains in the middle/late part of this week.

For the 3rd day in a row, not  as wet as previous days for the Central belt..........Iowa misses the heavy rains!

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:03 p.m.
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts


  Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/15/19 - 12Z 04/16/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/16/19 - 12Z 04/17/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:04 p.m.
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Severe Storm Outlook


Current Convective Outlooks
Updated: Mon Apr  8 12:48:09 UTC 2019 (2h 51m ago)
        Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Leitman
Issued: 08/1243Z
Valid: 08/1300Z - 09/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 08/0549Z
Valid: 09/1200Z - 10/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 08/0733Z
Valid: 10/1200Z - 11/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook       
By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:05 p.m.
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Current Dew Points

Moisture surging northward.

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:06 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day or 2 to catch up to incorporate the latest data. Still too wet over a large area even with recently drying. Very warm temperatures ahead will assist with more drying.

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:07 p.m.
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Currently, there is 0%  of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there.

The South has been really drying out recently but heavy rains coming up should wipe out some of the dryness in  that area. 

 The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next month.

            Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:18 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles from WEDNESDAY:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past:

Last Monday:  The mean/average is zonal but many solutions don't look like the average, they have an amplification of the pattern somewhere(possibly just transient). Majority are not nearly as wet as last week. No major cold intrusions. 

Tuesday: The mean is zonal and mild but the flow could still be fairly active......just not featuring excessive rain events because of being progressive.

Wednesday: Very wide spread in solutions from very strong and wet southern stream dominant(a slight majority) to dry and chilly northern stream, new pattern. The Canadian ensembles is by far the wettest for late week 2 as the other models are much drier today.

Thursday:  The mean looks fairly zonal again but the individual solutions which offset each other in the average have a wide spread.  Still looking for a potential drier pattern but there are still some with enough southern stream to cause it to be wet............if those solutions are correct. 

Friday: The mean and also individual solutions are looking zonal and drier..........this is the driest looking model for week 2. 

Saturday: Mean is still zonal but maybe closer to average precip now and not as dry. Just over half the solutions actually would have above average precip, less than half drier. 

Sunday:  Zonal but active mean with mild temps. After a dry period  of several days possible early in week 2(from the pattern described recently/above and the progression of days in the forecast, it looks wet again later in week 2.

Monday: The big change on the mean today is the upper level heights(ridging) building from the south into the Midwest compared to yesterday. At the very least, this would mean warm temperatures. This could also deflect/effect the storm track/jet stream.

Tuesday: Warm solutions on majority, with upper level high in the Southeast on numerous solutions and an active southern stream on some solutions that still carry the risk of wet weather in the Plains.

Wednesday: Clearly warm again. How long and how strong for the upper level ridge when its in the center of the country?  It shuts down the southern stream/shunts it  much farther westward in that position. If it shifts east, the potential to turn wet again increases. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 02, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:20 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Thursday: GFS ensembles continue VERY wet from a powerful southern stream.  Southern Plains to points east/northeast have the highest potential for excessive rains.

Friday: This model still has a pretty potent southern stream and deep upper level trough on many solutions.......favored towards the west.

Saturday:  Not as wet with less upper level ridging in the Southeast.

Sunday: Not as wet again, with regards to the threat of excessive rain events,  without much ridging in the Southeast. However, It still could be quite wet in some places and very active.

Monday: Still not nearly as wet as last week with several solutions taking the southern stream out as a major factor.

Tuesday: Some solutions shift to a much drier pattern change.  Some have some northern stream flow. Uncertainty for late week 2, especially late.

Wednesday:  Still much disagreement but most take away the wet southern stream connection and dry things out in the Midwest.  A few bring in some potential northern stream connection and a decent slug of cold.

Thursday: The GFS ensembles majority are much drier here at the end of week 2. Almost half half of them have a strong ridge in the west /Rockies that shuts down the moisture.  

Friday: The big upper ridge in the west solution that had been growing has almost vanished, half the solutions have an upper level low there its wetter than yesterday and potentially active  on half the solutions.

Saturday: Individual solutions continue to look wetter than a couple of days ago but some are drier too. Low confidence because of the spread.  The mean has precip a tad above average.

Sunday:  Precip is looking wetter again.

Monday:  Definitely looks pretty warm on most solutions. Rains are uncertain.  Depends on if we have an active flow or the jet stream is diverted away from the Midwest or only pays brief visits.

Tuesday: Drier and no southern stream aimed towards the Midwest. Very warm.

Wednesday:  Still very warm in week 2 and mostly drier. Could start turning wet in the Plains/Upper Midwest late in the period?

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:23 p.m.
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Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above)

Last Tuesday: Anomalies changing quite a bit. A new positive one in Northwest Canada across Alaska(another around Greenland) with the positive anomaly in the Northeast that was the main one last week, being replaced with a negative anomaly in Southeast Canada. This suggests the increasing potential for chilly weather in mid April. It could also dry things out in the Midwest by suppressing the southern stream farther south, into the S.Plains. 

Wednesday: New anomaly centers continue from yesterday. Positive Northwest Canada to Alaska, negative downstream to the southeast. Should mean cooler mid April weather. Will it also dry things out in the Upper Midwest/N.Plains and suppress the southern stream south? Watch the upper level ridge in the Southeast. If it holds, it will be very wet in the S.Plains. 

Thursday: Anomalies in the high latitudes, N.Alaska across the N.Pole to NE.Canada and negative anomolies in the S.Plains increase chances for cold in Canada to travel south but the big story is going to be southern stream energy.........and where its aimed. This will be defined by the negative anomaly in the vicinity of the S.Plains and positive anomaly in the far Southeast(which pumps up the moisture and blocks the progression of the large scale upper level low to its west). How wet it gets will be influenced by how amplied these features are. 

Friday: High latitude positive anomaly is undercut by Pacific flow/disconnected from a downstream negative anomaly which would establish a couplet for moving cold air south. Still a negative anomaly in the Southern Plains and vicinity associated with the Southern Stream.

Saturday: Southern stream negative anomaly shifting west of Plains,  slight positive anomaly in the Midwest suggests potentially much drier....and warmer.

Sunday:  No big anomaly centers to key off of. Slightly positive in the east and negative in the Plains still suggests at least some rain. 

Monday: Weak anomalies from the mean, much because the disagreements average out.

Tuesday:  Positive anomaly growing a tad along the West Coast. Slight negative anomaly in Southeast Canada. If this amplifies, it helps shut down the big precip events. 

Wednesday: The noted anomaly from yesterday, though still not impressive has a smideon more amplitude today.....which keeps my forecast for a drier pattern change in week 2 valid. If this leads to a ridge west/trough east couplet, it would also cool things down in the East.............and potentially much cooler in the Midsection on some guidance.

Thursday: Modest ridge West/trough East anomaly keeps me leaning drier later this month and at this end of week 2 time frame. This would also cause it to be cool in the Midwest/East, with warmth in the West.

Friday: The positive anomaly in the west is completely gone today. No very strong anomalies in the US, with a weak negative one off the East Coast. 

Saturday: Weak anomalies that have been shifting every day. Modest positive anomalies across much of the US, except the East Coast would mean mild to warm.

Sunday:  Weak positive anomaly in the N. Plains. Great uncertainty.

Monday: Pretty decent positive anomaly across the northern half of the US into Southeastern warm temps. Not sure on rains but its NOT an excessive rain set up in the Midwest.

Tuesday: Even bigger positive anomaly NorthCentral US. High confidence for warmth. This would shutdown the moisture to some places................possibly forcing the southern stream to take a track that keeps it from being aimed at the Midwest.

Wednesday: Still big positive anomaly Upper Midwest to Hudson Bay. WARM again! Still dry for alot of the Midwest in this position but could turn wet if it starts shifting eastward.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:24 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Expect widespread warmth!!

I'm in agreement with the temperatures again but they have too much rain in their forecasts below. 

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - April 17, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
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Previous discussions:       

         Re: Weather Friday            


                By WxFollower - April 5, 2019, 12:43 p.m.            

It is getting quite dry in much of the SE US. So, rain is needed. Upcoming warmth will exacerbate the problem.


                      Re: Re: Weather Friday            


                By metmike - April 5, 2019, 7:53 p.m.            



I've noted how dry that its been recently in the South and it's too dry now in a growing area(I just updated the drought monitor map above).

The pattern coming up could take care of that quickly if the zone of heavy rains is far enough east. 



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By mcfarm - April 8, 2019, 10:25 a.m.            


metmike, big talk of a 12 to 16 inch snow fall coming to the upper midwest......are you predicting th same?


                       By metmike - April 8, 2019, 11:16 a.m.            


Yes mcfarm!

Looks like SD to MN will have the heaviest snow. Thanks much for pointing this out.





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                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            




                By metmike - April 9, 2019, 4:01 p.m.            


                                Like                Reply            





                Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By cliff-e - April 9, 2019, 5:48 p.m.            


Looks like another "Bomb Cyclone" Winter storm headed for Minnesnowta with up to 30" snow and 50 mph wind gusts. On April 14 2018 we had 23" wet heavy snow that delayed planting...this time around we have wetter soils with only half of our Fall tillage completed so many of us will consider the prevented plant option if this storm comes to fruition.




                Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By metmike - April 9, 2019, 10:50 p.m.            


Thanks cliff,

I remember those poor early Spring planting conditions for Minnesota last year and you stating the same thing about your intentions for the prevent planting option well into May.

I will make the same prediction as last year............that you get your crop planted, 90% chance.

How did last years similar snowstorm and cold/wet early Spring affect the planting? On June 3, 2018, 98% of the Minnesota corn was planted which was actually 2% ahead of the average for that date..........thanks to some very warm/dry weather in much of  May.

Temps were more than 6 degrees above normal for the entire month of May last year!!

How did the late snowstorm and cold/wet Spring last year effect development of the MN crop last year thru pollination?

USDA August `13, 2018 crop condition: 77% Good/Excellent in MN. 2% poor.

Crop yield estimate by state after pollination:


It's not likely that May will turn as warm and dry as it did last year which allowed for the crop to be planted quickly but each year is different. Hopefully this will be another great one for you!

It really is getting harder and harder to hurt these crops with increasing CO2 and beneficial climate change. Hopefully you'll have another bin buster or close to it again even if early planting is not going to be in the cards for the 2nd year in a row. By historical standards, we are way overdue for some major adversity during the  growing season but climate change has changed those historical odds for adversity from drought during the growing season(the biggest risk to crops) to being lower than before. 


                      Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By cliff-e - April 10, 2019, 6:47 a.m.            


It's now April 2019...our rivers have been at flood stage for nearly 3 weeks already and our soil profile is definitely wetter as we now hear our basement sump pump running this year vs. last year when it never ran during the April 2018 floods. And we're still hearing of producers without operating credit for this year due to projected negative cash flows. 



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            


                By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:25 p.m.            


Thanks cliff,

Yep, all those facts are true about how the weather HAS(past tense) affected your soils and this current snow IS current tense about to affect things in a huge negative way. The bearish USDA report for corn yesterday didn't help any either. Sorry that things are so messed up for you right now. 

My forecast is for it to start drying out up there later in April FUTURE tense which is what matters now.........and for which there is the most uncertainty. 

For all I know, May could end up being the wettest May in history for MN because the models/guidance we use just don't have the skill to forecast that far out............which in this case means everything to your planting.

Let's hope that, instead it turns very warm and dry like it did in May 2018.


                Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            


                By metmike - April 10, 2019, 12:27 p.m.            


      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  4h4 hours ago              


Palmer drought index for March for the Corn Belt easily the highest on record. Maybe makes a case that the Corn Belt is wetter now than it has EVER been for this time of year?



By metmike - April 17, 2019, 6:17 p.m.
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