Argentina is having massive inflation
I don't think it will affect world grain prices but since they are freezing food prices I would expect farmers will be forced to sell to Brazil, until domestic supplies are in danger and then they will be forced to close the border, for exported grain
That isn't a big deal for us, but our NA economy could experience the same kind of inflation some day
On our farm since we can store a yrs worth of production, I would not sell a day sooner then the day I write a cheque
50% inflation is a big deal if your cost soars 50% higher then your selling price
I would not shrug off such a senerio, we just don't know when it will happen
The stk market is due to falter some day and the signals are obvious that the Fed will adopt a loose moey policy to offset the stk market losses thus propping up the asset value with printed money
We did this once already, but some day inflation will be the end result, that can not be controlled
History shows that printing paper is the go to answer
A recession will result in printed paper
Trump has already signalled that policy and the Fed seems to agree, that stk prices can not falter or the economy will do the same thing
The problem is:
The horse may escsape the barn before the door is cloased or the door may never get closed
Severall things are possible and inflation ranks high as a possivbility IMHO
We are not Arggentina, but the economy is signalling the same problems, just a bit of delay
If the USA or China ever have a problem, then look out for inflation
The USA is assuming debts of huge amounts, today and entitlements that will never be paid, except by printing and trying to sell bonds in ever increasing amounts
The public will demand their entitelments, thus what other avenue is open other than printing more bonds
The only way for the decision makers to pay the debts, is to print ever larger amounts of paper
That is why i say the easiest way to escape a recession, debt relief or any other unforseen problem is for the Fed/Treasury to print paper
And that is when the danger of inflation can happen
The last time China was not a major player
Today china, russia and the USA, any one of those three could plunge somebody over the cliff
And that can have unexpected consequences of major proportions
Just to add a bit more fuel to the fire is the buy backs
This does not do anything for the economy, but it does increase the share values, and the monetary benefits that go along with share values
This is all short sighted decisions and some day we will have mmajor problems
Be ready to defend yourself if inflation hits in a major way or also we could see a recession 1st
For dang sure, something will happen
I just don't know what and when, but eh country ias soft and laid back going thruough the same motions every day
What would you do if your income was cut by 2/3rds either by recession or sky high consumer prices
What would you do if the economy suddenly lost a major part of the jobs due to something
Don't say it won't happen because something will happen
It always happens
Massive inflation is coming to the USA. $350 WTIC is going to F* people up.
in the u.s.a., the commodity cycle has been operating on a 30 yr cycle. for example,...
oil topped out approximately 1950, 1980, 2010, and should top out in 2040...
(give or take a couple years in either direction).
depressions in the western world happen on a 100 yr cycle. 1830's, 1930's, and about the 2030's...
so I expect a depression in the 2030's, the fed will go absolutely bonkers with printing money, and we should get a huge commodity run up into about 2040...
the 100 yr cycle can be off by 10 years either direction. so our depression could start in the early to mid 2020's.
Dang bear, those are some long term cycles.
A list of US depressions;