Areas of the country that grow Winter wheat:

https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2013/03/07/usda-releases-new-maps-identifying-major-crop-producing-areas-united-states

Crop progress report from Monday:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1819.txt

Planting progress

Corn 15%  vs 27% average

Beans 3% vs 6% average

HRS 13% vs 33% average

Winter wheat 64% gd/Ex vs 62%

Planting delayed states in corn:

Illinois 9% planted (5yr avg 43%)

Indiana 2% (5yr 17%)

Minnesota 2% (5yr 24%)

Ohio 2% (13%)

Spring #wheat:

Minnesota 2% (33%)

N. Dakota 5% (21%)

S. Dakota 8% (60%)

Montana 23% (34%)

Export sales were poor:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

     Cornbroker21‏ @Cornbroker21                  7h7 hours ago              

Weekly Export Sales for Week Ending 4-25-2019#Corn#Soybeans#Wheat#Sorghum#Cotton#Rice

Lows in 1 week, slight freeze threat this Friday morning in the S.Plains. Needs to get st 5 degrees colder.

Export inspections...........not so good:

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

      Advance Trading, Inc‏ @trust_ati                  15s15 seconds ago              

Export Inspections & Destinations 05.06.19#exports

USDA crop report:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1919.txt

Spring wheat up from 13% last week to just 22% planted vs average of 49% 

MN/ND/SD leading the way behind numbers.

Winter wheat ratings dropped 3% out of excellent to good........not a big deal. Wet weather affecting the SRW crop a bit that needs dry and sunshine.

Ratings of 64% G/E tell us that a decent crop is on the way compared to a horrible 37% G/E last year. 

weather updated 5-9

weather updated 5-10

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht_charts/snd_cbt.pdf

WHEAT: The May USDA Supply & Demand and Production report for wheat was considered bearish with 2018-19 US wheat ending stocks coming in at 1.127 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 1.096 billion bushels (1.038-1.187 billion range) and compared to 1.087 billion in April. 2018-19 World ending stocks came in at 274.98 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 276.2 million tonnes (274.1-282.9 million range) and compared to 275.6 million in April. The 2019-20 US ending stocks came in at 1.141 million bushels versus the average estimate at 940 million bushels from a range of 881 to 1.173 billion bushels. The 2019-20 World ending stocks came in at 293.01 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 277.2 million tonnes from a range of 265.0 to 285.0 million tonnes. The US All Wheat production came in at 1.897 versus the average estimate 1.911 billion bushels (range 1.779-2.044 billion) and compared to last year's 1.884 billion. Total Winter wheat came in at 1.268 billion bushels versus the average estimate at 1.282 billion (1.116-1.406 range) and compared to 1.184 billion last year. The Hard Red wheat came in at 780 million bushels versus the average estimate at 766 million and compared to 662 million last year. Soft Red wheat came in at 265 million bushels versus the average estimate at 280 million bushels and compared to 286 million last year. White winter wheat came in at 224 million bushels versus the average estimate at 235 million bushels and compared to 236 million last year. PRICE OUTLOOK: Both old crop and new crop US ending stocks figures were above the average estimates. The USDA cut 2018-19 exports another 20 million bushels. The USDA also increased Russia's production to 77.0 million tonnes and the EU's to 153.8 million tonnes pushing 2019-20 world ending stocks to 293 million tonnes well above the estimates. July wheat next downside target is at 417 1/2 with resistance at 432. July KC wheat next downside swing target is at 383.5 with resistance at 399.5.

Export inspections. Corn and beans not so good. Wheat was excellent.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                            

U.S. #wheat shipments certainly picked up in the 2nd half of 2018-19. Total shipments through May 9 were finally up fractionally over the previous year. USDA has 18/19 exports at 925 mbu versus 901 mbu in 17/18. The 19/20 forecast is 900 mbu.

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                    

Last week's U.S. #wheat inspections were the largest since Sept. 2016 and incl. 399k tonnes HRW and 210kt HRS. Some 272k tonnes of #soybeans were shipped to #China. #Corn inspections are now up 5% over last year, but they were up 7% last week (gap is closing).

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                       

But for #wheat, production is seen outpacing consumption after crops rebound in Russia, EU, and others. The one that I would put in question is Australia, which often has droughts during El Nino, and that pattern is seen lingering potentially into 2020.

    Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                       

Money managers hit an all-time combined grains & oilseeds net short of 700,460 fut+opt contracts in week ended May 7. April 30  May 7, # fut+opt contracts:

#Corn -306,699  -282,327

#Soybeans -148,526  -160,553 (record)

 CBOT #wheat -83,502  -82,146

 Meal -15,599  -33,135