opening tonight grains
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Started by bcb - May 5, 2019, 6:44 p.m.

opening might be lower tonight thanks to Pres. Trump. He might by Friday move up the 10% tariffs to 25% because China is slow to finish off talks. 

By metmike - May 5, 2019, 7:44 p.m.
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Thanks bcb!

As my forecasts have been indicating, the pattern after this weeks rains sweep east(ending early Friday) turns much drier for at least a week.

This will allow ALL places to experience drying. Cool temps will lessen the drying, so it will take awhile to dry out enough to plant in many places.

However, the high angled sun will work wonders and water will be percolating thru the soils as well as flood waters receding.

Sharply lower on tonights open. 

Actually, we should see downside gaps lower in corn, beans and wheat

By metmike - May 5, 2019, 7:47 p.m.
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The pattern could turn wetter again late in week 2 but that period is VERY uncertain.

If it stays dry, even with these cool temperatures, most of the crop should get planted by the end of month as we catch up quickly. 

Not ideal conditions or as early as we'd like to see for opimal yeilds but we don't lose a great deal of acres like we would if it turns wet again late in week 2.

By metmike - May 5, 2019, 8:19 p.m.
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If these sharply lower gaps hold, they are strongly negative technical indicators.........downside breakaway gaps. 

If we fill them, they would be gap and crap reversal signals, especially in the beans, which would be reversing from lows and suggest a major exhaustion in the selling.

With the weather shifting to drier and potentially leading to planting catching up later this month, I am favoring the short side but the real big trade would come if we suddenly shifted again and kept the rains coming after this week.

With the record fund short, this has the most upside potential from short covering.

Down here in the dumps with funds having a record short already, we aren't going to see them chomping at the bit to sell a great deal more from record shorts already(near contract lows in corn and at contract lows in beans), so my shorting preference, is at prices higher than we are in early trading..........on confirmation that the drier weather will continue thru week 2.

Planting progress numbers tomorrow will feature us falling farther behind but expected but this will be a number thats important to the forecast..........not as important as the weather.

BCB, thanks again for the heads up on the China news which clearly added alot of panic type selling to the very early trading(some recent longs getting out at the market for sure). 

By mcfarm - May 5, 2019, 8:27 p.m.
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grains dn hard...corn dn 8 1/2 and beans 12 1/2......not really too funny esp when sitting at zero % planted

By metmike - May 5, 2019, 9:15 p.m.
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Got another 2.1" here yesterday too. 

We're 10 inches above normal for rain this year.

By bcb - May 5, 2019, 9:25 p.m.
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This down is all on Trump and now the possibility of China not coming to this week talks.

Screw the weather tonight and tomorrow's trade. Its politics now.

N.Il 5 inches of rain in 6 days last week and Wed. night Thursday could see more than other 1 in plus. 

By tjc - May 5, 2019, 10:12 p.m.
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Another tweet!

MY president acts like a teenage girl 20 years ago on the telephone.

This time he does not have 1.65 a bushel to bale farmers out!

So expletive deleted

By tjc - May 5, 2019, 10:18 p.m.
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LaSalle County, Illinois---6 inches last week

SADLY--never thought grains would NOT get a spring bounce---left 50-60 cents perbu corn and 90 cents soya from what now appears to be Feb YEARLY high

Thank the LORD I am landlord on inherited land

By metmike - May 5, 2019, 10:21 p.m.
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"Screw the weather tonight and tomorrow's trade. Its politics now. N.Il 5 inches of rain in 6 days last week and Wed. night Thursday could see more than other 1 in plus."

I agree that politics has alot to do with how extreme we are lower, but all the forecasts are drier to much drier and last week was almost pure weather in corn. 

That 5 inches of rain was LAST week bcb. That's why we went higher LAST week. That additional 1 inch of rain is over an inch LESS than it was forecast to be last week.

So we have:

1. Old bullish news-last weeks rain

2. Less bullish rain news for this weeks rains

3. Bearish rain news after this  weeks rain event.

If the forecast was still as wet for this week as it was last week and then continued the rains for the week after that, corn would not be much lower, possibly even higher. Beans would be much  lower though. 

You must have noted the  5c spike lower early on Friday for corn between 5am-8:30am (after being higher much of the night). That was from the GFS taking out a bunch of rain on the 6z operational model, which came out just after 5 am, in combination with the early morning European model ensemble run taking out a bunch of rain just prior to that.

All of it was from just that smaller drier change. Now, the forecast is even drier, which is working in tandem/double whammy on the corn market.

I doubt that this will happen but if we added all that rain back in overnight, I'm confident that corn would fill the gap lower tonight. 

By cliff-e - May 6, 2019, 8:08 a.m.
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Equities down hard. The 45 trade war follies continue.

By metmike - May 6, 2019, 11:48 a.m.
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     Re: Re: Rain            

                         By mcfarmer - May 6, 2019, 7:52 a.m.            


It’s been wet here in NW Iowa.

We got to go Saturday and Sunday, worked nearly straight through. Sitting at about 1/3 planted now.


                Re: Re: Re: Rain            

                           By mikempt - May 6, 2019, 9:24 a.m.            


The Amish in Lancaster have the corn planted


                          By metmike - May 6, 2019, 11:45 a.m.            


Thanks  mike/mcfarm, IA, as noted yesterday is only too wet to plant along the west and east borders.

It's IL/IN/OH that are completely water logged and a looooooooong way from planting. MN is not quite as bad as the ECB but chilly temps are an additional issue there.  


By metmike - May 6, 2019, 5 p.m.
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Just to review what happened, because there is confusion and also because tjc has been asking for what I planned to do trading(I  almost never say in advance what my trades are going to be for several reasons, one of which is that I don't do as well if I am trading somebody else's money..........and knowing that others will want to follow is like that to me, another is that I am often in and out of the market fast, sometimes minutes in natural gas based on a change in a model that causes a knee jerk reaction to the price, which is impossible to pass on here, another is that I'm still recovering from having all my money stolen twice, once in Oct 2011, then again in July 2012).

I do encourage everyone else to share trades and I will do so with certain position trades and always provide the needed weather guidance that makes it pretty clear what direction I think the market is going based on weather........which, like the last 2 days, was clearly negative/bearish.

Just to review the weather.

  1.  Rains last week were already dialed into the rally last week and go hand in hand with dialing in expectations for slow planting progress today which will not be traded for long tonight/ Tuesday because its old news.
  2.  Rains this upcoming week were taken out of the forecast. Less rains this week were/are bearish
  3. Rains after this week's rain event came out of the markets forecast today(though this is what I had since late last week). In fact, the 6-10 day-NWS finally went below rains everywhere today.
  4. Its later in week 2 that rains might be coming back from the west.  This would be the highly uncertain 8-14 day period.

So the first 11-12 days or so in the forecast are bearish/drier. Starting at day 12 is when it turns wetter.

This was extremely frustrating to trade......and I couldn't trade it at all.  This is a shorting set up because of better weather. If this forecast verifies, there should be some selling pressure based on planting catching up............and it will if we dry out but its tricky.  Ordinarily, last nights open would have been the time to get very short...........but the China news caused the massive gap lower in tandem with the much more weather and messed that up.

When the China news turned positive today, the markets recovered..............when, ordinarily drier weather might have pressured prices from higher levels.

We should note that, even though the bearish effect o

Just glad that I was already leaning drier on Friday and stopped buying/covered longs on Thursday and didn't get killed on the open last night.

Also, planting delay weather scares are often the WORST to try to trade because of timing and the markets unpredictable reactions.

Which makes the next 2 days impossible to know. If heavy rains are falling in rain delayed areas, and funds deciding to cover we might still go higher if extended maps really bring in more rain after the dry spell.

The dry spell of a week seems pretty likely but if that suddenly started to shrink in a big way, then it would be a strong buying signal using weather.

But there is no denying that this week long stretch of dry weather coming up, even with cool temperatures was NOT on the markets trading menu late last week and is almost what the doctor ordered(temps are too cool).

I would be very surprised if the dry forecasts continue(rain not added) if  corn makes new highs.

Now its very tricky. Is the market, loaded with massive, record in fact, fund shorts that might be nervous and in short covering mode, realizing that if rains come back in or Trump makes a deal with China, they have tremendous upside risk from here? With the recent pattern and talk of the similarities to 1993 and the entire growing season ahead funds may not want this upside risk. 

For sure we have taken out alot of rain from the forecast compared to late last week and that's a bearish factor and the corn price closing around 6c lower was justified from that factor alone.