INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 7, 2019, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.6%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 



 

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 54.2)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 48.8)

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. Annual Washington Conference on the Americas

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. March Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +14.9B; previous +15.19B)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.8M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.1M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight over fears that trade talks between the U.S. and China are in jeopardy. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7739.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7739.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7492.67.  



The June S&P 500 was lower overnight over concerns about U.S./China trade talks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2918.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 2957.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2957.30. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2918.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2861.36.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 150-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 148-24. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-00. Second support is April's low crossing at 145-31.



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 123.295 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, April's low crossing at 122.205 then March's low crossing at 121.155 are the next downside targets. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.295. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is April's low crossing at 122.205. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 122.120.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



June crude oil was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.17 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.82 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.  



June heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 202.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 202.95. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17. 



June unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.75 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the overnight low crossing at 195.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 191.75. 



June Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 2.444 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.595 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.595. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.736. First support is April's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.444.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are also turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.14 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target.First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.14. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.36.



The June Euro was slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.75 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.37. First support is April's low crossing at 111.57. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.   



The June British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 1.3245 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3044 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.3245. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3323. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2899. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.  



The June Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9916 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9713 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9916. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0017. First support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713. 



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.94. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.



The June Japanese Yen steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 0.0918 is a potential upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0898 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0910. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0893. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0892.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1284.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1284.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1298.10. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.



July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.983 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.983. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.231. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.570. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460.



July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 288.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 272.86 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 284.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 288.96. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 278.06. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 272.86   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was stead to fractionally higher overnight and filled Monday's gap crossing at 3.66. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.58 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.73 1/4 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.73 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.90. First support is April's low crossing at 3.51 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



July wheat was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.46 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.46 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.57 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.26. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4. 



July Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.03.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.05 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.90 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74.  



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 8.12 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 8.40 1/2 would suggest that the aforementioned gap might have been an exhaustion gap. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.76 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.51 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.76 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.16 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 8.12 1/4.



July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 291.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 305.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 300.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 305.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at 293.10. Second support is weekly support crossing at 291.30.   



July soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight and filled Monday's gap crossing at 27.29. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 25.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.38. First support is Monday's low crossing at 26.58. Second support is monthly support crossing at 25.47.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed limit down at $89.75. 



June hogs closed limit down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness on Tuesday. Closes below the April-29th low crossing at 87.03 are needed to renew the decline off April's high. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.73. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 88.74. Second support is April's low crossing at 86.25. 



June cattle closed down $1.15 at 112.27. 



June cattle closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79 is the next downside target. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 118.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.28. First support is today's low crossing at 111.87. Second support the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. 

 

May Feeder cattle closed down $1.13 at $136.06. 



May Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off April's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 142.22 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at  crossing at 142.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.38. First support is today's low crossing at 133.65. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.65 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 24.34 is the next upside target. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 22.15 is the next downside target.         



July sugar closed lower on Monday as it extends this spring's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's decline, last-September's low crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



July cotton gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 72.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  

Comments
By metmike - May 7, 2019, 10:16 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Watching corn still.

A week of dry weather will help with planting but then it turns wet again. How long the dry lasts or soon the rain returns is important now.