KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 8, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 407.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 259.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.7%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1228.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.0%)
10:00 AM ET. April Online Help Wanted Index
10:10 AM ET. ISM Semiannual Report On Business & Economic Forecast
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 470.567M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected +0.2M; previous +9.934M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 226.743M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -1.3M; previous +0.917M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.722M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -1.3M; previous -1.307M)
Refinery Usage (expected 89.9%; previous 89.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.152M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.296M)
Thursday, May 9, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 796K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 336.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 419.5K)
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -50.2B; previous -49.38B)
Exports (USD) (previous 209.69B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Imports (USD) (previous 259.07B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 230K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +0)
Continuing Claims (previous 1671000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +17K)
9:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. March Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 462B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +123B)
12:00 PM ET. April Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
1:30 PM ET. May 9 Economic Forum
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A Chinese delegation in U.S. to for latest talks on bilateral trade relationship
N/A SEC Annual Conference On Financial Market Regulation commences
Friday, May 10, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. April CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +1.9%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.0%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET: April Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to ongoing concerns over trade talks between the U.S. and China, which could be jeopardy. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7500.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7767.32 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7500.83. Second support is the March 27th reaction low crossing at 7276.00.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight over concerns about U.S./China trade talks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2862.32 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2922.03 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2957.30. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2862.32. Second support is the March 25th reaction low crossing at 2792.40.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 150-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-02 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 149-06. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-02. Second support is April's low crossing at 145-31.
June T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 124.310 is the next upside targets. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 122.300 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 124.060. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is April's low crossing at 122.205. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 122.120.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.25 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.65 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.
June heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17.
June unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.10. Second support is the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31.
June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.626 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 2.444 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.626. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.731. First support is April's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.444.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.18 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target.First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.18. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.36.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.71 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.32. First support is April's low crossing at 111.57. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3053 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 1.3245 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.3245. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3323. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2899. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9906 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9713 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9906. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0012. First support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 0.0918 is a potential upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0898 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0913. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0893. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0892.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1283.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1283.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1297.20. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.969 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.969. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.210. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.570. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460.
July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 272.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 288.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 283.44. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 288.10. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 278.06. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 272.86
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible ahead of Friday's WASDE report. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.73 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 3.55 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.73. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.90. First support is April's low crossing at 3.51 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
July wheat was steady overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.57. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.26. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 1-cents at 4.04.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.16 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.03 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.16 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.90 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74.
July Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 8.12 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 8.40 1/2 would suggest that the aforementioned gap might have been an exhaustion gap. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.72 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.72 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.16 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 8.12 1/4.
July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 291.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 304.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 299.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 304.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at 293.10. Second support is weekly support crossing at 291.30.
July soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 25.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 26.58. Second support is monthly support crossing at 25.47.
Thanks tallpine!