May 9th-just another day? Do something special to make somebody feel GREAT today. Don't just think about it........do it. Then think about how you just made their world a tiny bit greener.
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere. Showers in some places for a couple more days, then mostly dry and quite cool for around a week (which will help planting to catch up a bit) then turning wet again.............when, where and how much rain in the extended outlook is going to be key to how much catching up can be done.
Heat ridge rebuilding in the Southeast late in week 2 is the story today. Could build far enough west to shield the Eastern Cornelt and heat things up at the same time. The potential for excessive rains around the periphery of the upper level ridge is elevated too.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
VERY warm right now in the southern 2/3rds. Cool Northern tier back to the Central Plains.
Highs for days 3-7:
Cool MUCH DRIER air the first few days. Warming begins in the Plains early next week.
Cool to start, then warming!
The pattern but may be transient (cool/dry..........lasting for a week before we turn wet again as the warm "heat ridge" builds in the Southeast again)
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Cool Canadian High Pressure comes in with reinforcing cold fronts that go well into next week..............but temperatures starting warming from the west next week.............as moisture eventually returns, along with rains later next week.
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Another couple days of showers (less in the East)..................then we dry out late this week and lasting a week!!!
Later week 2 has rains returning.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Severe Storm risk
|Current Day 1 Outlook|| Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri|
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 2 Outlook|| Forecaster: Broyles|
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 3 Outlook|| Forecaster: Broyles|
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 4-8 Outlook|
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
There WAS actually a small corridor/dry slot across parts of KS, E.NE into IA...........that area is getting some of the heavier rains this week. The rest of the Cornbelt has had way too much rain. Should dry out, starting this Friday. Then get wet again, a week after that.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week). Still too wet over a large area, planting stays stalled out in many places, especially the Eastern Cornbelt.
Widespread drying should commence late this week, now we try to figure out when the rains will return in week 2 and how much planting might get done before then.
Currently, there is 0% of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm) in the Southeast though which has some drought.
The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next month.
The ideal time frame for planting corn is now. The market will be scrutinizing the 2 week forecasts every day.
This operational GFS model product is updated every 12 hours. The GFS is updated every 6 hour but this product is only updated for the 0Z and 12Z run.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Tuesday: Doesn't look as wet to me..........with the southern stream and heaviest rains aimed father south today and well south of the Corbelt for the really heavy stuff.
Wednesday: Looks pretty wet on this model, especially south.
Thursday: Still wet BUT more zonal flow vs southwest flow which has the potential to dry things out more......at least end the threats of excessive rain events as we get more progression.
Friday: The trend from yesterday continues with several solutions breaking the long lived connection from the southern stream to the Plains. This will be modulated by the upper level ridge in the Southeast US. The more the ridge weakens, the better chances become to dry out and for sure it would result in a more progressive flow.
Saturday: This model keeps it wet with the active southern stream aimed toward the Plains, into, especially the S.Midwest.
Sunday: After the break from rain from late week 1 to early week 2, this model sees the southern stream taking over again as we turn pretty wet again, especially Plains to S.Midwest. Some of the solutions that don't bring the southern stream back, have a cut off northern stream low which, at the least makes it very chilly and possibly causes lighter rains.........this is for the end of week 2 period below which is very uncertain right now.
Monday: Wow, big spread in how to handle the southern stream. Half of the members are extremely bullish and wet. This is the wettest model and this is the end of week 2............which follows a dry period leading up to it.
Tuesday: After the dry period leading up to these maps(for late week 2) the Canadian model brings back the wet southern stream again. The amount of rain will be greatly affected by how strong the upper level ridge is in the Southeast. Today's run has that ridge weaker but not all solutions agree. Tomorrow will likely handle it a bit differently. Also a question of how much northern stream influence/air will be left from the cool period earlier.
Wednesday: HOLY COW! The upper level heat ridge in the Southeast bounces back and is flexing its muscles as it extends all the way back to the Ohio Valley up the East Coast! This will cause it to be HOT in the southeast and possibly back to the S.Midwest and up the East Coast. However, this model is by far the most bullish with the heat ridge. The upper level low is also impressive in the Southwest and southern stream flow emanating from that will be steered around the periphery of the ridge, where the heavy rains will be. The upper level high on this model is strong enough to potentially shield the waterlogged Eastern Cornbelt and keep it very warm and dry.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 23, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Tuesday: Much drier today. Not as many solutions with much southern stream. Almost half of them shut it down completely.
Wednesday: Half of the solutions have a very wet southern stream, especially in the S.Plains. The ensemble mean for the European model, however is MUCH drier than this.
Thursday: Upper level low in Southeast Canada a dominant feature on many solutions means chilly weather in the Northeast to Midwest..........cutting off the deep moisture so precip not as heavy there.
Friday: Solutions all over the place today for late week 2. Some turn drier, some stay wet.
Saturday: This model dries us out. Possible disconnect of the southern stream with a cutoff low in the Southwest/West
Sunday: Wide spread in solutions. Some build the upper level ridge in the Southeast again with an upper level trough/low in the Southwest anchoring the strong and wet southern stream and moisture gushing north. Others have a different solution, some with a decent northern stream. Great uncertainty late week 2, after a dry period beforehand.
Monday: Not as gung ho with the southern stream aimed at the Plains/Midwest as the Canadian model has been the last 2 days but it still starts turning wetter from the southwest again late week 2. It will depend on where the upper level ridge sets up. In the Southeast again..........and it turns wet again.
Tuesday: Turns very wet in the S.Plains later in week 2..........because the majority have the upper level ridge in the Southeast rebuilding. How wet and how far east/northeast and when are some good questions the market is asking right now. And how long will the dry period ahead of this last?
Wednesday: The GFS ensembles still have some ooomph left in the northern stream with the upper level low in the Northeast which keeps the upper level ridge in the Southeast from expanding as far north.
Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above)
Last Tuesday: No positive anomaly in the East today, so less ridging there, so the negative anomaly in the Southwest doesn't have the couplet connection to steer moisture as strongly northward into the Plains/Midwest. Negative anomaly in Southeast Canada should help steer some northern stream chill south of the border.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly over the Great Lakes today. Still a negative anomaly over the Southwest.
Thursday: Positive anomaly over Northern Canada good for cool northern stream connection below it. Still a negative anomaly over the southwest associated with the southern stream...........which may get suppressed a bit by the northern stream.
Friday: Still a positive anomaly over Northern Canada that favors a cold connection to the south, into the US but its shifting farther a bit northwest late in week 2(that might not mean a lot so far out). Still a negative anomaly in the Southwest which keeps the southern stream potential alive. Upper level ridging in the Southeast or not will determine that.
Saturday: Positive anomaly in the high latitudes connects the northern stream to some chilly air which goes south of the US/Canadian border. Negative, southern stream anomaly in the Southwest associated with the heavy rains may get left behind.
Sunday: Positive anomaly in high latitudes still connects with weak negative anomaly in the Northeast US favorably to send chilly air south. Southern stream upper level negative anomaly in the Southwest and potential positive anomaly in the Southeast could re instate the big rain making mechanism, especially in the Plains to S.Midwest. This map is at the end of week 2.
Monday: The positive anomaly in the high latitudes continues as the main/obvious anomaly and it connects with a weak negative anomaly in far Southeast(a decent couplet) to favor northern stream flow directed south, into the US. Still a negative anomaly in the Southwest with southern stream potential...........that can be asserted with gusto in the Plains eastward if an upper level ridge builds in the Southeast again..........where we have a weak positive anomaly today.
Tuesday: The positive anomaly in the high latitudes is still there as a potential source for a northern stream with cool air aimed south. The big deal, however is the action from the very wet southern stream which will be modulated by a potential upper level ridge in the Southeast. We do see a positive anomaly there today which favors it redeveloping later in week 2. This steers/diverts the active/wet southern stream into the Plains and possibly points northeast..........along with pumping juicy Gulf of Mex air northward. Being late week 2, things will look a bit different tomorrow.
Wednesday: Several competing forces. 1. The high latitude positive anomaly coupling with the downstream negative anomaly in Southeast Canada that steers northern stream flow. This will aim cold fronts south of the US/Canadian border. 2. The upper level ridge/positive anomaly in the Southeast and negative anomaly in the Southwest/upper level trough associated with the very wet southern stream flow.........aimed towards the Plains. Where exactly these set up will determine where the most active weather will be with the warmest and driest weather most likely in the Southeast, coolest along the Canadian border. Wettest weather most likely in the S.Plains.............but how far east that expands is the biggest unknown.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Tuesday: AO drops well below 0. NAO recovers from negative to near zero, same with PNA.
Thursday: Solidly negative AO and NAO forbode some late season chilly weather south of the Canadian border. PNA close to 0.
Friday: Still solidly negative AO and NAO tell us that cold air from higher latitudes in Canada will be flushed south into the middle latitudes, south of the US border. This moderates on these indices late in week 2 as they increase a bit. PNA is near 0 still.
Saturday: Still negative AO/NAO and likely modulating chilly air masses tracking well south into the US. Also suppressing the southern stream and drying things out some. PNA near 0.
Sunday: Very negative AO, NAO negative but increases some late.........so it should be chilly. PNA around 0 but increases a tad late week 2.
Monday: Negative AO and NAO, strong enough, with the pattern to flush air from high latitudes in Canada, southward to mid latitudes, farther south in the USA. So cool weather continues thru week 2. PNA a tad positive.
Tuesday: Negative AO and NAO cause cool weather influence well into week 2. NAO increases late in the period. PNA around 0.
Wednesday: Negative AO and NAO cause cool weather influence but things may be changing farther south late in week 2 with regards to the upper level ridge in the Southeast. PNA a bit positive.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Friday: We might see additional drying from the north on future forecasts.
Saturday: Yes, we should see less rain coming up in the extended forecasts.
Sunday: Still looking for them to take out more rain in the 6-10 day.........but it might start
returning from the west during the 2nd part of the 8-14 day. Temps remain very cool.
Monday: Staying very cool with absolute certainty on this aftenoons updated NWS maps. Looking for them to continue with less rain in the 6-10 day but a case can be made to possibly increase rain again in the 8-14 day for some areas. Rain amounts late in week 2 are the huge question right now.
Tuesday: NWS finally took the rain out of the 6-10 day. This dry period has now been known for days by the market. What is unknown, is when will the rains return later in week 2(8-14 day) from the west, so how long will the drying last? The 8-14 day outlook will start getting wetter now! Temps should remain cool on both maps this afternoon.
Wednesday: Looking to see how much rain returns in the later period(from the west) and heat building again in the Southeast.
| Precipitation Probability|
|the 8-14 day outlooks|
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data
Heavy rain risk, for something like the 5th day in a row has continued to shift southward and has been even farther south than the Cornbelt since Saturday.
By tjc - May 5, 2019, 4:27 p.m.
Thank you for detailed weather recap.
What is (MetMike)// the trade going to do? Sell the open? Buy a Sunday night dip? Wait?
By metmike - May 5, 2019, 7:53 p.m.
For sure I'm not buying. The weather pattern has turned bearish.
With an expected downside gap lower on the open, I may not be able to be short from the additional prices I'd hoped for.
But glad to have covered longs on Thursday and not being long right now.
By metmike - May 6, 2019, 11:24 a.m.
Since we are sharply lower early on Monday, and rains are being added at the end of the forecast, my early Monday bias has shifted slightly (to neutral to just looking at the buy side) but no way would I sell down here near the lows, unless the models all turn completely drying thru week 2.
We gave up too much price premium too fast on the spike lower here and weather did not get THAT bearish.
By metmike - May 6, 2019, 5:13 p.m.
This is for you
By metmike - May 6, 2019, 5 p.m.
Just to review what happened, because there is confusion and also because tjc has been asking for what I planned to do trading(I almost never say in advance what my trades are going to be for several reasons, one of which is that I don't do as well if I am trading somebody else's money..........and knowing that others will want to follow is like that to me, another is that I am often in and out of the market fast, sometimes minutes in natural gas based on a change in a model that causes a knee jerk reaction to the price, which is impossible to pass on here, another is that I'm still recovering from having all my money stolen twice, once in Oct 2011, then again in July 2012).
I do encourage everyone else to share trades and I will do so with certain position trades and always provide the needed weather guidance that makes it pretty clear what direction I think the market is going based on weather........which, like the last 2 days, was clearly negative/bearish.
Just to review the weather.
So the first 11-12 days or so in the forecast are bearish/drier. Starting at day 12 is when it turns wetter.
This was extremely frustrating to trade......and I couldn't trade it at all. This is a shorting set up because of better weather. If this forecast verifies, there should be some selling pressure based on planting catching up............and it will if we dry out but its tricky. Ordinarily, last nights open would have been the time to get very short...........but the China news caused the massive gap lower in tandem with the much more weather and messed that up.
When the China news turned positive today, the markets recovered..............when, ordinarily drier weather might have pressured prices from higher levels.
We should note that, even though the bearish effect o
Just glad that I was already leaning drier on Friday and stopped buying/covered longs on Thursday and didn't get killed on the open last night.
Also, planting delay weather scares are often the WORST to try to trade because of timing and the markets unpredictable reactions.
Which makes the next 2 days impossible to know. If heavy rains are falling in rain delayed areas, and funds deciding to cover we might still go higher if extended maps really bring in more rain after the dry spell.
The dry spell of a week seems pretty likely but if that suddenly started to shrink in a big way, then it would be a strong buying signal using weather.
But there is no denying that this week long stretch of dry weather coming up, even with cool temperatures was NOT on the markets trading menu late last week and is almost what the doctor ordered(temps are too cool).
I would be very surprised if the dry forecasts continue(rain not added) if corn makes new highs.
Now its very tricky. Is the market, loaded with massive, record in fact, fund shorts that might be nervous and in short covering mode, realizing that if rains come back in or Trump makes a deal with China, they have tremendous upside risk from here? With the recent pattern and talk of the similarities to 1993 and the entire growing season ahead funds may not want this upside risk.
For sure we have taken out alot of rain from the forecast compared to late last week and that's a bearish factor and the corn price closing around 6c lower was justified from that factor alone.
Like March...PDSI for April in the Corn Belt highest ever Makes case that the Corn Belt is wetter than it has EVER been for this time of year (glass half empty)? Makes case the Corn Belt has the best soil moisture conditions ever going into a growing season (glass half full)?