KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 10, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. April CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +1.9%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.0%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET: April Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closed modestly lower on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7510.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7749.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7510.02. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7371.42.
The June S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2863.81 would open the door for a larger-degree decline this month. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2917.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 2957.30. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 50-day moving low crossing at 2863.81. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09.
The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline due to ongoing concerns over China-U.S. tariff tensions. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off May's high, the 25% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 25,456.82 is the next downside target. If the Dow resumes the rally off March's low, last-October's high crossing at 26,951.81 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 26,695.96. Second resistance is last-October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 25% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 25,456.82. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,795.46.
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June T-bonds closed up 19/32's at 148-26
June T-bonds closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage r a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high high crossing at 150-21 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 146-21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 149-06. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 146-21. Second support is April's low crossing at 145-31.
June T-notes closed up 80-pts. At 124.000.
June T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 124.310 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 122.300 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 124.085. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 122.300. Second support is April's low crossing at 122.205.
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June crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.34.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.34 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.55 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.34. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.
June heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 212.68. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17.
June unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it bounced off the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.57. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.57 would open the door for a possible test of the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 209.69. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.57. Second support is the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31.
June Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.626 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 2.432 is the next downside target.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.626. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.727. First support is April's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.432.
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The June Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the May 1st low crossing at 96.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the May 1st low crossing at 96.87. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 96.70.
The June Euro closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.27 are needed to temper the bearish outlook. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.27. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.33. First support is April's low crossing at 111.56. Second support is the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 1.2899 is the next downside target. Close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3147 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1.3208. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1.3245. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2899. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.9920 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9713 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9920. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0008. First support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713.
The June Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.87. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 0.0918 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0901 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0916. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0893. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0892.
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June gold closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1292.20 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1292.20. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.460 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.939 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.939. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.186. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.460. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper closed lower on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 267.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 282.46. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.30. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at 272.86. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at 267.05.
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July Corn closed down 11 3/4-cents at 3.52 1/2.
July corn closed sharply lower on Thursday. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.90. First support is April's low crossing at 3.51 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
July wheat closed down 10-cents at 4.29.
July wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.44. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.56. First support is April's low crossing at 4.26. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 3.97 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.90 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 1/4-cents at 5.17 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
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July soybeans closed down 16 1/4-cents at 8.11.
July soybeans closed sharply lower on Thursday as concerns over U.S./China trade negotiations out weighed planting delays across large portions of the Midwest. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, psychological support crossing at 8.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 8.40 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.67. First support is today's low crossing at 8.06 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.
July soybean meal closed down $3.90 at 289.00.
July soybean meal closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 275.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.80 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 297.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.80. First support is today's low crossing at 288.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at 275.50.
July soybean oil closed down 43-pts. at 26.57.
July soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 25.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.41. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.11. First support is today's low crossing at 26.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 25.94.
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June hogs closed up $1.45 at $90.00.
June hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the April-29th low crossing at 87.03 are needed to renew the decline off April's high. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 85.37. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73.
June cattle closed up $0.87 at 111.95.
June cattle closed higher on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79 is the next downside target. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 116.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.99. First support is today's low crossing at 110.87. Second support the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79.
May Feeder cattle closed up $0.48 at $136.25.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.18 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at 139.18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.35. First support is Monday's low crossing at 133.65. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.58 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 22.15 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 24.34 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's decline, last-September's low crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off 2018's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the June 2018 low crossing at 67.49 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 75.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Drier weather ahead has improved corn planting prospects.