KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 10, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. April CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +1.9%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.0%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET: April Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight. For the week as of Thursday, the Nasdaq is down 3.1%. If those losses hold, it would mark the worst weekly return since the market selloff in December. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7519.26 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7734.26 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7519.26. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7371.42.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2865.60 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2915.02 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2865.60. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 150-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-07 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 149-06. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-07. Second support is April's low crossing at 145-31.
June T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 124.310 is the next upside targets. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 122.300 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 124.060. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is April's low crossing at 122.205. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 122.120.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was higher in late-overnight trading as it continues to form a small symmetrical triangle. A breakout in either direction of this consolidation pattern should point the direction of the next short-term trending move. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 60.04 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.47 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is Monday's low crossing at 60.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.
June heating oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.18. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.01 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.01. Second support is the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31.
June Henry natural gas was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.626 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 2.444 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.626. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.721. First support is April's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.444.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 96.87 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target.First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the reaction low crossing at 96.87. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.73.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.63 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.23. First support is April's low crossing at 111.57. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 1.2899 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3141 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.3245. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3323. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2899. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.9920 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9713 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9920. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0003. First support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.83. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 0.0918 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0902 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 0.0916. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0902.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1295.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1295.50. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.942 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.927. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.167. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.570. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460.
July copper was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 272.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 281.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.68. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 278.06. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 272.86
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are likely ahead of today's WASDE report. If July extends Thursday's loss, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.71 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.71 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.90. First support is April's low crossing at 3.51 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
July wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.42 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.42 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.55 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.26. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 3.97 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.90 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74.
July Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.19 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.19 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, psychological support crossing at 8.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 8.40 1/2 would suggest that the aforementioned gap might have been an exhaustion gap. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.62 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.36 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.62 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 8.06 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.00.
July soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 275.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 295.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 301.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 288.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at 275.50.
July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 25.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.97. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 26.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at 25.47.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $1.45 at $90.00.
June hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the April-29th low crossing at 87.03 are needed to renew the decline off April's high. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 85.37. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73.
June cattle closed up $0.87 at 111.95.
June cattle closed higher on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79 is the next downside target. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 116.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.99. First support is today's low crossing at 110.87. Second support the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79.
May Feeder cattle closed up $0.48 at $136.25.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.18 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at 139.18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.35. First support is Monday's low crossing at 133.65. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.58 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 22.15 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 24.34 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's decline, last-September's low crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off 2018's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the June 2018 low crossing at 67.49 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 75.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!