Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:06 a.m.

Happy May 11th!  Just another day?  Do something special to make somebody feel GREAT today. Don't just think about it. Then think about how you just made their world a tiny bit greener. 

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.   Drier pattern next week(not completely dry) and quite cool  (which will help planting to catch up). How long will this last?  When  will rains return from west to east.

 How much rain this weekend system for the waterlogged Eastern Cornbelt.

Still seeing  possible heat ridge developing in week 2.......growing signs. Exact location?


Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     




US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Wind Chill Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:09 a.m.
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Chilly air here for several days.

Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades. 


By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:12 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Left over very cool air dominates at the start of next week. Huge warm up after that. Potential heat ridge!

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:12 a.m.
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Coolest Northeast, warmest Rockies to C.Plains. Major warming as the week goes on!

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:14 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

Cool Canadian High Pressure to start,  fronts may trigger some scattered showers. Big warming as the week goes on Storm in the Plains next weekend.

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:16 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map         Not much in the Cornbelt on Friday

Last 7 day precip below that

Weekly Precipitation

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:17 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Rain still in the forecast for the ECB this weekend. Drier next week but still some scattered showers.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:18 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts.

   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:18 a.m.
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Severe Storm risk


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook       
By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:20 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

A bit of the moisture sneaks back to the Ohio River Valley (Eastern Cornbelt) this weekend. 

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

 The Cornbelt has had way too much rain. We will be drying out(but not completely dry) for the next week.

How long will that go on???

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:23 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).  Still too wet over a large area, planting  stays stalled out at them moment in many places, especially the Eastern Cornbelt. 

A bit of rain this weekend in the ECB. Scattered showers next week but overall, drying will take place. Now we try to figure out when the rains will return in week 2 and how much planting might get done before then..........especially in the waterlogged Eastern Cornbelt........where next weeks drying will last the longest.

Potential heat ridge in the extended forecast!

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:24 a.m.
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Currently, there is 0%  of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm) in the Southeast though which has some drought. The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next month.


Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:26 a.m.
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The ideal time frame for planting corn is now.  The market is scrutinizing  the 2 week forecasts every day.  

This operational GFS model product is updated every 12 hours. The GFS is updated every 6 hour but this product is only updated for the 0Z and 12Z run. This is just 1 run, from 1 model. The week 2 portion is often volatile/changeable.

Select a Parameter:    

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:35 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Tuesday: Doesn't look as wet to me..........with the southern stream and heaviest rains aimed father south today and well south of the Corbelt for the really heavy stuff. 

Wednesday: Looks pretty wet on this model, especially south.

Thursday: Still wet BUT more zonal flow vs southwest flow which has the potential to dry things out least end the threats of excessive rain events as we get more progression. 

Friday: The trend from yesterday continues with several solutions breaking the long lived connection from the southern stream to the Plains. This will be modulated by the upper level ridge in the Southeast US. The more the ridge weakens, the better chances become to dry out and for sure it would result in a more progressive flow.

Saturday: This model keeps it wet with the active southern stream aimed toward the Plains, into, especially the S.Midwest.

Sunday: After the break from rain from late week 1 to early week 2, this model sees the southern stream taking over again as we turn pretty wet again, especially Plains to S.Midwest.  Some of the solutions that don't bring the southern stream back, have a cut off northern stream low which, at the least makes it very chilly and possibly causes lighter rains.........this is for the end of week 2 period below which is very uncertain right now. 

Monday: Wow, big spread in how to handle the southern stream. Half of the members are extremely bullish and wet. This is the wettest model and this is the end of week 2............which follows a dry period leading up to it.

Tuesday: After the dry period leading up to these maps(for late week 2) the Canadian model brings back the wet southern stream again. The amount of rain will be greatly affected by how strong the upper level ridge is in the Southeast. Today's run has that ridge weaker but not all solutions agree. Tomorrow will likely handle it a bit differently. Also a question of how much northern stream influence/air will be left from the cool period earlier.

Wednesday: HOLY COW! The upper level heat ridge in the Southeast bounces back and is flexing its muscles as it extends all the way back to the Ohio Valley up the East Coast! This will cause it to be HOT in the southeast and possibly back to the S.Midwest and up the East Coast. However, this model is by far the most bullish with the heat ridge. The upper level low is also impressive in the Southwest and southern stream flow emanating from that will be steered around the periphery of the ridge, where the heavy rains will be. The upper level high on this model is strong enough to potentially shield the waterlogged Eastern Cornbelt and keep it very warm and dry.

Thursday: The mean is not nearly as amplified with the upper level ridge in the Southeast today...........though some members have it with gusto. Much spread and uncertainty in solutions late week 2. 

Friday: Upper level ridge and trough in the south are farther west today..........on the mean. Individual solutions are everywhere. Their location is key to where the heavy rains set up in week 2.  Far enough west and rains get shut down in the Midwest, especially east. If the heat ridge sets up in the Southeast again, heavy rains return. Watching for this potential heat ridge and its location with regards to cooling demand and natural gas prices.

Saturday: Extreme variations and spread in the individual members yielding completely opposite solutions. This makes the mean of low less value because the majority DON'T show that particular pattern........they show something on one side or the other of the mean. So, possibly one extreme camp will be correct and the other will morph in that direction the next few days???? It's a result of the big battle between the long lived northern stream and southern stream flows, with amplification in week 2 and position of the large scale features at that time determining which one might win out.  The Canadian model actually has  more northern stream today (but still not a majority) vs the GFS below, which is the opposite of their positions yesterday. Only a minority have the big heat ridge building that is much more prevalent on the GFS.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on May 26, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:39 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Tuesday: Much drier today. Not as many solutions with much southern stream. Almost half of them shut it down completely.

Wednesday: Half of the solutions have a very wet southern stream, especially in the S.Plains. The ensemble mean for the European model, however is MUCH drier than this.

Thursday: Upper level low in Southeast Canada a dominant feature on many solutions means chilly weather in the Northeast to Midwest..........cutting off the deep moisture so precip not as heavy there.

Friday: Solutions all over the place today for late week 2.  Some turn drier, some stay wet.

Saturday:  This model dries us out. Possible disconnect of the southern stream with a cutoff low in the Southwest/West

Sunday:  Wide spread in solutions. Some build the upper level ridge in the Southeast again with an upper level trough/low in the Southwest anchoring the strong and wet southern stream and moisture gushing north. Others have a different solution, some with a decent northern stream. Great uncertainty late week 2, after a dry period beforehand.

Monday: Not as gung ho with the southern stream aimed at the Plains/Midwest as the Canadian model has been the last 2 days but it still starts turning wetter from the southwest again late week 2. It will depend on where the upper level ridge sets up. In the Southeast again..........and it turns wet again.

Tuesday: Turns very wet in the S.Plains later in week 2..........because the majority have the upper level ridge in the Southeast rebuilding.  How wet and how far east/northeast and when are some good questions the market is asking right now. And how long will the dry period ahead of this last?

Wednesday: The GFS ensembles still have some ooomph left in the northern stream with the upper level low in the Northeast which keeps the upper level ridge in the Southeast from expanding as far north.

Thursday:  A great deal of disparity in solutions. Overall, drier in the waterlogged Eastern Cornbelt.

Friday: Northern stream stronger on this model than the Canadian model on some solutions. Uncertainty in week, especially with destiny of southern stream large scale feature locations.

Saturday: Over half the members have a heat ridge somewhere between the S.Plains to Southeast, with a northern stream that gets bumped northeast and almost out of the picture, especially compared to yesterday. Stay tuned for changes.

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:50 a.m.
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Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above)

Last Tuesday: No positive anomaly in the East today, so less ridging there, so the negative anomaly in the Southwest doesn't have the couplet  connection to steer moisture as strongly northward into the Plains/Midwest. Negative anomaly in Southeast Canada should help steer some northern stream chill south of the border.

Wednesday: Positive anomaly over the Great Lakes today. Still a negative anomaly over the Southwest.

Thursday: Positive anomaly over Northern Canada good for cool northern stream connection below it. Still a negative anomaly over the southwest associated with the southern stream...........which may get suppressed  a  bit by the northern stream.

Friday: Still a positive anomaly over Northern Canada that favors a cold connection to the south, into the US but its shifting farther a bit northwest late in week 2(that might not mean a lot so far out). Still a negative anomaly in the Southwest which keeps the southern stream potential alive. Upper level ridging in the Southeast or not will determine that.

Saturday: Positive anomaly in the high latitudes connects the northern stream to some chilly air which goes south of the US/Canadian border. Negative, southern stream anomaly in the Southwest associated with the heavy rains may get left behind.

Sunday: Positive anomaly in high latitudes still connects with weak negative anomaly in the Northeast US favorably to send chilly air south. Southern stream upper level negative anomaly in the Southwest and potential positive anomaly in the Southeast could re instate the big rain making mechanism, especially in the Plains to S.Midwest. This map is at the end of week 2.

Monday: The positive anomaly in the high latitudes continues as the main/obvious anomaly and it connects with a weak negative anomaly in far Southeast(a decent couplet) to favor northern stream flow directed south, into the US. Still a negative anomaly in the Southwest with southern stream potential...........that can be asserted with gusto in the Plains eastward if an upper level ridge builds in the Southeast again..........where we have a weak positive anomaly today. 

Tuesday: The positive anomaly in the high latitudes is still there as a potential source for a northern stream with cool air aimed south. The big deal, however is the action from the very wet southern stream which will be modulated by a potential upper level ridge in the Southeast. We do see a positive anomaly there today which favors it redeveloping later in week 2. This steers/diverts the active/wet southern stream into the Plains and possibly points northeast..........along with pumping juicy Gulf of Mex air northward. Being late week 2, things will look a bit different tomorrow. 

Wednesday: Several competing forces. 1. The high latitude positive anomaly coupling with the downstream negative anomaly in Southeast Canada that steers northern stream flow. This will aim cold fronts south of the US/Canadian border. 2. The upper level ridge/positive anomaly in the Southeast and negative anomaly in the Southwest/upper level trough associated with the very wet southern stream flow.........aimed towards the Plains. Where exactly these set up will determine where the most active weather will be with the warmest  and driest weather most likely in the Southeast, coolest along the Canadian border. Wettest weather most likely in the S.Plains.............but how far east that expands is the biggest unknown.

Thursday: Positive anomaly still in the high latitudes but the coupling downstream may get broken as the downstream trough/upper level low/negative anomaly in Southeast Canada fills. This is tandem with  an upper level ridge/positive anomaly growing in the east also suggests warming in the East. Weak negative anomaly in the west is going to modulate the energy from the jet stream and storms coming in from the Pacific. 

Friday: Still the tenacious positive anomaly in the high latitudes coupling with a negative anomaly downstream in the Northeast acting as a block and source of northern stream chilly air being flushed south from Canada. Southern stream positive anomaly is a bit farther west today in the Plains, with the negative anomaly along the Southwest Coast, also a bit farther west vs Thursday. Watching for possible heat ridge in the south.

Saturday:  The long lived northern stream couplet of positive anomalies in the high latitudes coupled downstream to negative anomalies in Southeast Canada/Northeast US may be getting disrupted. At the very least, the growing positive southern stream anomoly in the middle of the country may deflect northern stream influence to the north. This is a result of a building heat ridge.

Still a negative southern stream anomaly in the Southwest (trough of low pressure), coupled with the down stream upper level ridge/positive anomaly, under that right conditions can lead to excessive rains around the periphery of the ridge( especially if it sets up in the Southeast) or could shut down the rains underneath it for much of the Cornbelt if it sets up farther northwest.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 11:55 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Tuesday: AO drops well below 0. NAO recovers from negative to near zero, same with PNA.

Thursday: Solidly negative AO and NAO forbode some late season chilly weather south of the Canadian border. PNA  close to 0.

Friday: Still solidly negative AO and NAO tell us that cold air from higher latitudes in Canada will be flushed south into the middle latitudes, south of the US border. This moderates on these indices late in week 2 as they increase a bit. PNA is near 0 still.

Saturday: Still negative AO/NAO and likely modulating chilly air masses tracking well south into the US.  Also suppressing the southern stream and drying things out some.  PNA near 0.

Sunday: Very negative AO, NAO negative but increases some it should be chilly.  PNA around 0 but increases a tad late week 2.

Monday:  Negative AO and NAO, strong enough, with the pattern to flush air from high latitudes in Canada, southward to mid latitudes, farther south in the USA. So cool weather continues thru week 2. PNA a tad positive.

Tuesday: Negative AO and NAO cause cool weather influence well into week 2. NAO increases late in the period. PNA around 0.

Wednesday: Negative AO and NAO cause cool weather influence but things may be changing farther south late in week 2 with regards to the upper level ridge in the Southeast. PNA a bit positive.

Thursday: Negative AO. NAO negative but increasing late with potential pattern change in the East back to warmer. PNA positive.

Friday: Tenacious negative AO and NAO maintain and act in favor of cooler air transport southward from higher latitudes, as least well into week 2. PNA slightly positive. 

Saturday: Still negative AO with the high latitudes not changing a great deal but NAO increases a bit. Mid latitudes could be changing, with potential for more warming from the south in a manner that these indices are not designed to capture well(since they are NORTHERN stream flow indicators). PNA a tad positive.




By metmike - May 11, 2019, noon
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Friday: We might see additional drying from the north on future forecasts. 

Saturday: Yes, we should see less rain coming up in the extended forecasts.

Sunday: Still looking for them to take out more rain in the 6-10 day.........but it might start

returning from the west during the 2nd part of the 8-14 day. Temps remain very cool.

Monday: Staying very cool with absolute certainty on this aftenoons updated NWS maps.  Looking for them to continue with less rain in the 6-10 day but a case can be made to possibly increase rain again in the 8-14 day for some areas.  Rain amounts late in week 2 are the huge question right now. 

Tuesday: NWS finally took the rain out of the 6-10 day. This dry period has now been known for days by the market. What is unknown, is when will the rains return later in week 2(8-14 day) from the west, so how long will the drying last? The 8-14 day outlook will start getting wetter now! Temps should remain cool on both maps this afternoon.

Wednesday: Looking to see how much rain returns in the later period(from the west) and heat building again in the Southeast.

Thursday: How long will the dry weather in the 6-10 day hold on to the Eastern Cornbelt? Temps should start warming in the 8-14 day.

Friday: Wetter in the west into the Plains, drier in the Eastern Cornbelt/East. Temperatures uncertain trend.

Saturday: Should be pretty wet again but this is dependent on where a potential heat ridge sets up. The GFS products have been pretty gung ho on the heat ridge the past 24 hours vs the European model but todays extended NWS products should continue to turn up the heat in the eastern half, while staying cool West.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - May 11, 2019, noon
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Heavy rain event potential will stay in the S.Plains for quite awhile.

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 12:01 p.m.
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Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  1h1 hour ago              




Last 11 months for the Corn Belt...wettest on record (2016 ranks as number two followed by 1994, 1973, and 2011)




Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  1h1 hour ago              


Like March...PDSI for April in the Corn Belt highest ever Makes case that the Corn Belt is wetter than it has EVER been for this time of year (glass half empty)? Makes case the Corn Belt has the best soil moisture conditions ever going into a growing season (glass half full)?



By metmike - May 11, 2019, 12:01 p.m.
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Last week in May thru the first week in June

This is a low skill time frame. It shows a reversion to the April pattern.

Heat ridge in the Southeast.........and drying out even more.

Plains/Midwest cool and wet. 

When we get to this time of year, extremely high soil moisture content makes it very difficult to sustain a major heat ridge or dome of upper level high pressure. In fact, it steers long range  forecasts towards cooler than average for temperatures above the wet soils. 

This also increases chances for above precip. 


Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 25 May 2019 to 07 Jun 2019
Updated: 10 May 2019

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - May 11, 2019, 12:03 p.m.
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A storm chaser sent a drone after a Tornado and the footage is amazing