Corn/grains week of May 13, 2019
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Started by metmike - May 13, 2019, noon

The weather has been too wet for planting, especially affecting the corn market, since corn is planted first. #2 corn producing state Illinois is the farthest behind right now.  The delay in planting and forecast for more rain caused corn prices to go up in late April but the market, at the start of last week was seeing a pattern change to drier, which would lead to planting catching up is many places this month. This put pressure on prices(in tandem with the bearish China news, then the bearish USDA report).

Planting progress for corn came in at just 30% on Monday afternoon, well below market expectations of 35% and the 3rd slowest ever.  With another big weather system coming in late this week into early next week with big storms  the market is focusing on additional delays..........even while a heat ridge builds in ahead of that system.  The week 2 part of the forecast may feature us drying out again in many locations and a heat ridge in, at least the Southeast belt. Will storms continue along the periphery of the heat ridge?


Sunday Weather: Warmer!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/29970/

Monday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30066/

Tuesday Weather:  Heat ridge more impressive-storms late week with unwanted rain

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30177/

Wednesday: Heat ridge breaks down towards the end of week 2-heavy rain forecasts late this week into early/mid next week.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30239/

Weather Thursday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30279/

Friday Weather: Heavy rains next week around a big Heat ridge in the Southeast.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30354/

Saturday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30434/

Sunday Weather: Excessive rains still coming

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30501/


Comments
By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:01 p.m.
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Export inspections. Corn and beans not so good. Wheat was excellent.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

   

                                       Last week's U.S. #wheat inspections were the largest since Sept. 2016 and incl. 399k tonnes HRW and 210kt HRS. Some 272k tonnes of #soybeans were shipped to #China. #Corn inspections are now up 5% over last year, but they were up 7% last week (gap is closing).

                                                 

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:06 p.m.
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USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND REVIEW    May 10, 2019


https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht_charts/snd_cbt.pdf

CORN: The May USDA Supply & Demand report for corn was considered bearish with US 2018-19 corn ending stocks coming in at 2.095 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 2.061 billion bushels (range 1.985-2.21 billion range) and compared to 2.035 billion in April. 2018-19 World ending stocks came in at 325.94 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 315.3 million tonnes (313.0-318.2 million range) and compared to 314.01 million in April. The new crop 2019-20 US ending stocks came in at 2.485 billion bushels in a range 1.694-2.506. The 2019-20 World ending stocks were estimated at 314.71 million tonnes versis an expected range of 271.2 to 329.0 million tonnes. Brazil's corn production came in at 100 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 96.7 million tonnes (95.0-98.0 million range) and compared to the April estimate of 96.0 million tonnes. Argentina's corn production came in at 49 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 48.0 million tonnes (46.5-50.0 million range) and compared to 48.0 million in April. PRICE OUTLOOK: The much larger than expected South America production helped to cause a bearish report with December corn moving down to new contract lows. World ending stocks at 325.94 million tonnes came in well outside of the range of estimates for 313.0-318.2 million tonnes. A break to the 365 1/2 level appears to have priced in a very negative outlook and there will be many factors which could develop to shift the balance sheet more positive. Consider buying December near 365 1/2. The downside target for July corn is at 344

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:09 p.m.
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              AgriSource Inc@agrisource       

    

    

      

    

    

      

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:10 p.m.
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      AgriSource Inc@agrisource                                              

                                            

USDA May 10, 2019 Report Charts below shows the initial May USDA yields, compared to the USDA Final Yields, since 1995 2019 #corn yield 176 bpa 2019 #soybean yield 49.5 bpa

                                                     

 

               

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:12 p.m.
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This was from a week ago. We will have a crop planting progress update this afternoon.


    @agrisource

                                         

Top 5 Slowest Corn Planting Years since 1991- As of May 5th Only IA, MO, and NE do not fall in the top 5 slowest IN, SD, and MN are slower than the 1993 pace US #Corn at 23% is 4th slowest in past 29 years #plant19

                                               

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:15 p.m.
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By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:17 p.m.
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      AgriSource Inc@agrisource                  May 2              

   

                                    

We have been receiving some questions on historical Prevent Plant acreage. Since 1997, the US has seen prevent plant acreage as low as 1.239 mln acres in 2012, to as high as 9.6 mln acres in 2011. The last 3 years have averaged 1.9 to 3.4 mln acres that went unplanted. #plant19

                                                 

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:18 p.m.
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      Darin D. Fessler@DDFalpha                  16h16 hours ago              

                                         

Final Planting Dates: #corn #soybeans #plant19 

                                                       

 

               

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:29 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx      

                                     

USDA's grains circular offered a better outlook for #corn than soybeans: "Global consumption continues to outpace production driven by higher feed use, particularly for growth in poultry production. Corn for non-feed use also expands, primarily driven by growth in #China."

                                                       

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:30 p.m.
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By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:33 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                       

   

                                     

Money managers hit an all-time combined grains & oilseeds net short of 700,460 fut+opt contracts in week ended May 7. April 30 ➡️ May 7, # fut+opt contracts:

#Corn -306,699 ➡️ -282,327

#Soybeans -148,526 ➡️ -160,553 (record)

 CBOT #wheat -83,502 ➡️ -82,146

 Meal -15,599 ➡️ -33,135

                                                       

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 4:22 p.m.
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Crop progress numbers:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2019.txt


Less planted corn than expected(by the market). Almost tied with 2013 as the slowest planting in the last 2 decades.

U.S. planting progress, May 12:

#Corn 30% (23% last week, 66% average, trade guess 35%)

#Soybeans 9% (6% last week, 29% avg, trade guess 15%) 

Spring #wheat 45% (22% last week, 67% avg, trade guess 35%)


Trade expectations for Crop Progress. Last year on May 12, #corn was 59% planted, #soybeans 32%, spring #wheat 54%. Five-year average for corn is 66%, soybeans 29%, spring wheat 67%.

                                                 

 

              

  

  

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 4:33 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  14m14 minutes ago              

                                        

Notable delays, #corn:

 Illinois 11% (5y avg 82%)

 Indiana 6% (avg 57%)

 Iowa 48% (76%)

 Minn 21% (65%) 

Ohio 4% (47%) 

Nebraska 46% (72%) 

N Dak 11% (43%) 

S Dak 4% (54%)

 Michigan 5% (34%) 

Wisconsin 14% (46%)

 Missouri 52% (87%)

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 6:08 p.m.
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By metmike - May 14, 2019, 11:41 a.m.
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      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  19h19 hours ago              

                                         

Historical national corn planting progress figures as of May 12 (since 1987)

                                                 

 

By metmike - May 14, 2019, 7:17 p.m.
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Tue wx updated

By silverspiker - May 15, 2019, 3:33 a.m.
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Buying N july whead @ 4:20 and buying July corn at 3:48 ......


...... these are the times and days that make the day trader of grain complex commodities.....

..... like migratory waterfowl

By metmike - May 15, 2019, 11:19 a.m.
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Thanks SS!

U.S. #corn planting progress was seriously behind normal schedule on May 12 at just 30% complete, well behind the 5-year avg of 66%. But if conditions are right, farmers can plant quickly. Here are the 10 fastest planting weeks on record since 1980, by percent planted.

                                               

 

By metmike - May 16, 2019, 11:50 a.m.
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By silverspiker - May 17, 2019, 12:16 a.m.
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....   3-92  - July.  ... 5-th day of week CLOSE 

By metmike - May 18, 2019, 1:21 p.m.
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 metmike: Funds covered some of this position after the Tuesday end date of this report.



     Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  21h21 hours ago              

                                         

Week ended May 14 was the 5th week in a row that funds set a new combined net short in CBOT grain/oilseed fut+opt: 719,076 contracts.

 May 7 ➡️ May 14

:#Corn -282,327 ➡️ -282,918

#Soybeans -160,553 ➡️ -168,835 (record)

 Corn producer -16,340 ➡️ -4,516

 Soy prod. +70,077 ➡️ +66,862