Sunday Weather: Warmer!
Tuesday Weather: Heat ridge more impressive-storms/rain late week bullish
Wednesday: Heat ridge breaks down towards the end of week 2-heavy rain forecasts late this week into early/mid next week.
Friday Weather: Heavy rains next week around a big Heat ridge in the Southeast.
Sunday Weather: Excessive rains still coming
Areas of the country that grow Winter wheat:
WHEAT: The May USDA Supply & Demand and Production report for wheat was considered bearish with 2018-19 US wheat ending stocks coming in at 1.127 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 1.096 billion bushels (1.038-1.187 billion range) and compared to 1.087 billion in April. 2018-19 World ending stocks came in at 274.98 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 276.2 million tonnes (274.1-282.9 million range) and compared to 275.6 million in April. The 2019-20 US ending stocks came in at 1.141 million bushels versus the average estimate at 940 million bushels from a range of 881 to 1.173 billion bushels. The 2019-20 World ending stocks came in at 293.01 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 277.2 million tonnes from a range of 265.0 to 285.0 million tonnes. The US All Wheat production came in at 1.897 versus the average estimate 1.911 billion bushels (range 1.779-2.044 billion) and compared to last year's 1.884 billion. Total Winter wheat came in at 1.268 billion bushels versus the average estimate at 1.282 billion (1.116-1.406 range) and compared to 1.184 billion last year. The Hard Red wheat came in at 780 million bushels versus the average estimate at 766 million and compared to 662 million last year. Soft Red wheat came in at 265 million bushels versus the average estimate at 280 million bushels and compared to 286 million last year. White winter wheat came in at 224 million bushels versus the average estimate at 235 million bushels and compared to 236 million last year. PRICE OUTLOOK: Both old crop and new crop US ending stocks figures were above the average estimates. The USDA cut 2018-19 exports another 20 million bushels. The USDA also increased Russia's production to 77.0 million tonnes and the EU's to 153.8 million tonnes pushing 2019-20 world ending stocks to 293 million tonnes well above the estimates. July wheat next downside target is at 417 1/2 with resistance at 432. July KC wheat next downside swing target is at 383.5 with resistance at 399.5.
Export inspections. Corn and beans not so good. Wheat was excellent.
Money managers hit an all-time combined grains & oilseeds net short of 700,460 fut+opt contracts in week ended May 7. April 30 May 7, # fut+opt contracts:
#Corn -306,699 -282,327 #Soybeans -148,526 -160,553 (record)
#wheat -83,502 -82,146
Meal -15,599 -33,135
Crop progress numbers:
Less planted corn than expected(by the market). Almost tied with 2013 as the slowest planting in the last 2 decades. More Spring Wheat planted than expected though. 45% done vs 35% expected.
U.S. planting progress, May 12:
#Corn 30% (23% last week, 66% average, trade guess 35%) #Soybeans 9% (6% last week, 29% avg, trade guess 15%)
#wheat 45% (22% last week, 67% avg, trade guess 35%)