KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 415.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 268.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1232.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 472.035M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.431M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 225.024M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.123M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.647M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.084M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.477M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.931M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
Thursday, May 23, 2019
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 634.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 674.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 533.9K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 212K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -16K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1660000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)
9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.9)
9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 52.5; previous 52.4)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. April New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 680K; previous 692K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -1.7%; previous +4.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.0)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1653B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +106B)
11:00 AM ET. May Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 12)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 14)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 5)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 11)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, May 24, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -2.0%; previous +2.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Monday, May 27, 2019
N/A U.S.: Memorial Day. Financial markets closed
N/A U.S: Jefferson Davis' Birthday holiday in Mississippi
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7629.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7629.96. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. First support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7371.42. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2890.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2890.27. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support isthe 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were mostly steady overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 150-21 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 150-10. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-29.
June T-notes were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.212 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 124.310 is the next upside targets. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 124.270. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is May's low crossing at 122.300. Second support is April's low crossing at 122.205.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 64.75 is the next upside target. Closes below May's low crossing at 60.04 would renew the decline off April's high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is May's low crossing at 60.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.
June heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17.
June unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 192.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 192.64. Second support is the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31.
June Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.599 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.681 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.681. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.768. First support is May's low crossing at 2.516. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.477.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 98.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.49 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.92.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.95 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.95. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is April's low crossing at 111.57. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline below the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 1.2701. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 1.2591 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2952 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2853. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2953. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2678. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2591.
The June Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9892 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9987 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9987. Second resistance is the 2018-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0098. First support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.76. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0907 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0907. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 1267.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1293.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1302.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.756 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.756. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.050. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 14.350. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 267.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 286.41. First support is the overnight low crossing at 269.05. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 267.05.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. If Monday's gap crossing at 3.84 3/4 is filled it would greatly increase the odds that the gap was an exhaustion gap. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, last-November's high crossing at 4.03 1/4 is the next upside target. If Tuesday's high did post a short-term top, I would not be surprised to see a 10 to 20-cent pullback. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.73 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.99 1/2. Second resistance is last-November's high crossing at 4.03 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.73. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.68 3/4.
July wheat was lower overnight following Tuesday's downside reversal.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.46 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the 38% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 4.95. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.56 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.46 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.36.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.27 1/2 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 4.61 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.06 3/4. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.46 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.06 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.82.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight following Tuesday's downside reversal. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.27 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight. So far the consolidation following the May 15th high is to be expected given the overall bearish fundamentals surrounding the soybean market. If May's low marked an important bottom, we should eventually see July soybeans rally higher into early-June. However, it will take further planting delays along with continued wet conditions across large portions of the Midwest to sustain the rally off May's low, Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8.48 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.78 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 7.91. Second support is monthly support crossing at 7.75.
July soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 294.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.80. Second resistance is the April 26th reaction high crossing at 309.90. First support is 10-day moving average crossing at 294.20. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 283.10.
July soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews last-week's rally, the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.07 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.45. First support is May's low crossing at 26.21. Second support is monthly support crossing at 25.47.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $1.65 at $90.10.
June hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at 85.37 would renew the rally off April's high. If June extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 93.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is May's low crossing at 85.37. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73.
June cattle closed down $0.50 at 110.85.
June cattle closed lower on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 112.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.59. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.65. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.78 at $143.00.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.81 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 146.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.82. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 140.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 24.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar posted a key reversal up and closed higher on Tuesday. Additional gains on Wednesday would confirm today's key reversal up. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.76 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!