brazil weather
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Started by coffeeclotch - May 27, 2019, 8:49 a.m.

Mike I saw talk of early frost potential in Brazil. Do you see that ? 

By metmike - May 27, 2019, 11:50 a.m.
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Hi coffeeclotch,

Great question. June-August is frost risk season for coffee country.

There is no threat to the crop during the next 2 weeks. A more comprehensive discussion on coffee later today!

By metmike - May 27, 2019, 9:56 p.m.
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By metmike - May 27, 2019, 10:05 p.m.
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                  In the distant past, when coffee country was farther from the equator and before beneficial

global warming/climate change and there was a higher risk for freezing temperatures to do damage to the crop in their Winter, prices would rally in Apr/May to dial in frost risk premium, then drop ahead of and during the harvest in Jul/Aug. 

Prices have crashed over the last year and have not been following any sort of seasonal trend.                                               

Date Posted & Author


Kaffee saisonal
By metmike - May 27, 2019, 10:06 p.m.
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Coffee charts going back 10 years:

1 Year Below


2 Year below



 Coffee 10 years below-we broke 10 year lows recently

Drought in Brazil in 2014 caused a spike

Drought in Brazil and bad weather globally in 2010 caused the 2011 spike



Note at this link below, that coffee prices dipped below 50c in late 2001 and the first half of 2002!

So coffee can still go much lower!

By metmike - May 27, 2019, 10:08 p.m.
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History of frosts/freezes and droughts in Brazil thru 2000.


DateSeverity (Damage)Coffee Frost or Drought
1902 (Late July/early August)DevastatingF*
1918 (June 24-26)SevereF*
1942 (Late June/early July)SevereF*
1953 (July 4-5)SevereF*
1955 (July 30-August 1)Severeslight F
1962 (July 25-26)MinorF*
1963 (August 5-6)ModerateF and D
1966 (August 6)Severeslight F
1967 (June 8)MinorF*
1969 (July 9-10)ModerateF*
1972 (July 8-9)ModerateF*
1975 (July 17-19)Very SevereF*
1978 (August 13-16)ModerateF*
1979 (June 1)ModerateF*
1981 (July 20-22)SevereF*
1984 (August 25)MinorF*
1985 (August-November)MinorD
1994 (June 25-26 and July 9-10)Severe/Very SevereF and D
1999 (August to November)Severe (40% crop lost)
2000 (July 17)Moderate (est)F*


* In most cases frost or drought was not                    indicated by the source.  Although only F is written in                    these cases it is likely a combination of the two forces                    that caused devastation to the coffee crop.


By metmike - May 27, 2019, 10:14 p.m.
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2 week temperatures in Brazil show no chance of frost. Above normal.


Select a Parameter:    

By metmike - June 10, 2019, 2:17 p.m.
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No threats for a frost/freeze on weather models here to start off the week of June 10, 2019