Mike I saw talk of early frost potential in Brazil. Do you see that ?
Hi coffeeclotch,
Great question. June-August is frost risk season for coffee country.
There is no threat to the crop during the next 2 weeks. A more comprehensive discussion on coffee later today!
In the distant past, when coffee country was farther from the equator and before beneficial
global warming/climate change and there was a higher risk for freezing temperatures to do damage to the crop in their Winter, prices would rally in Apr/May to dial in frost risk premium, then drop ahead of and during the harvest in Jul/Aug.
Prices have crashed over the last year and have not been following any sort of seasonal trend.
| Date Posted & Author | |
|---|---|
Coffee |
Coffee charts going back 10 years:
1 Year Below
| |
| |
Drought in Brazil in 2014 caused a spike
Drought in Brazil and bad weather globally in 2010 caused the 2011 spike
| |
Note at this link below, that coffee prices dipped below 50c in late 2001 and the first half of 2002!
So coffee can still go much lower!
https://www.macrotrends.net/2535/coffee-prices-historical-chart-data
History of frosts/freezes and droughts in Brazil thru 2000.
http://www.coffeeresearch.org/market/frost.htm
http://www.coffeeresearch.org/market/frosthistory.htm
| Date | Severity (Damage) | Coffee Frost or Drought |
| 1902 (Late July/early August) | Devastating | F* |
| 1918 (June 24-26) | Severe | F* |
| 1942 (Late June/early July) | Severe | F* |
| 1943 | Moderate | F* |
| 1953 (July 4-5) | Severe | F* |
| 1955 (July 30-August 1) | Severe | slight F |
| 1957 | Severe | F* |
| 1962 (July 25-26) | Minor | F* |
| 1963 (August 5-6) | Moderate | F and D |
| 1965 | Minor | F* |
| 1966 (August 6) | Severe | slight F |
| 1967 (June 8) | Minor | F* |
| 1969 (July 9-10) | Moderate | F* |
| 1972 (July 8-9) | Moderate | F* |
| 1975 (July 17-19) | Very Severe | F* |
| 1978 (August 13-16) | Moderate | F* |
| 1979 (June 1) | Moderate | F* |
| 1981 (July 20-22) | Severe | F* |
| 1984 (August 25) | Minor | F* |
| 1985 (August-November) | Minor | D |
| 1988 | Minor | F* |
| 1994 (June 25-26 and July 9-10) | Severe/Very Severe | F and D |
| 1999 (August to November) | Severe (40% crop lost) | D |
| 2000 (July 17) | Moderate (est) | F* |
* In most cases frost or drought was not indicated by the source. Although only F is written in these cases it is likely a combination of the two forces that caused devastation to the coffee crop.
2 week temperatures in Brazil show no chance of frost. Above normal.
No threats for a frost/freeze on weather models here to start off the week of June 10, 2019
