Mike I saw talk of early frost potential in Brazil. Do you see that ?
Great question. June-August is frost risk season for coffee country.
There is no threat to the crop during the next 2 weeks. A more comprehensive discussion on coffee later today!
In the distant past, when coffee country was farther from the equator and before beneficial
global warming/climate change and there was a higher risk for freezing temperatures to do damage to the crop in their Winter, prices would rally in Apr/May to dial in frost risk premium, then drop ahead of and during the harvest in Jul/Aug.
Prices have crashed over the last year and have not been following any sort of seasonal trend.
|Date Posted & Author|
Coffee charts going back 10 years:
1 Year Below
Drought in Brazil in 2014 caused a spike
Drought in Brazil and bad weather globally in 2010 caused the 2011 spike
Note at this link below, that coffee prices dipped below 50c in late 2001 and the first half of 2002!
So coffee can still go much lower!
History of frosts/freezes and droughts in Brazil thru 2000.
|Date||Severity (Damage)||Coffee Frost or Drought|
|1902 (Late July/early August)||Devastating||F*|
|1918 (June 24-26)||Severe||F*|
|1942 (Late June/early July)||Severe||F*|
|1953 (July 4-5)||Severe||F*|
|1955 (July 30-August 1)||Severe||slight F|
|1962 (July 25-26)||Minor||F*|
|1963 (August 5-6)||Moderate||F and D|
|1966 (August 6)||Severe||slight F|
|1967 (June 8)||Minor||F*|
|1969 (July 9-10)||Moderate||F*|
|1972 (July 8-9)||Moderate||F*|
|1975 (July 17-19)||Very Severe||F*|
|1978 (August 13-16)||Moderate||F*|
|1979 (June 1)||Moderate||F*|
|1981 (July 20-22)||Severe||F*|
|1984 (August 25)||Minor||F*|
|1994 (June 25-26 and July 9-10)||Severe/Very Severe||F and D|
|1999 (August to November)||Severe (40% crop lost)||D|
|2000 (July 17)||Moderate (est)||F*|
* In most cases frost or drought was not indicated by the source. Although only F is written in these cases it is likely a combination of the two forces that caused devastation to the coffee crop.
2 week temperatures in Brazil show no chance of frost. Above normal.