58% planted nation wide----Another gap tonight?
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Started by tjc - May 28, 2019, 5:06 p.m.

Report came in at 58 %.  Expectations were near 65%.

My 'guess' is 5-8 higher, and will build upon that start.

Other sites suggest large traders no longer short, so they can now build LONG position

Could get intersesting!!

Remember my first gap post suggested 430-435 area.

  Other thoughts?

By Jim_M - May 28, 2019, 5:15 p.m.
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As I prepare for an onslaught of scattered thunderstorms and rain for the next 4 hours, I fully agree with your assessment.  

By mcfarmer - May 28, 2019, 5:25 p.m.
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I put a sell order for  the first 1/3 of 2018 corn on the open tonight.

With all the corn that’s around who knows.

By metmike - May 28, 2019, 5:37 p.m.
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Nice for you to have your crop planted and finally some decent prices because other farms are having the adversity. We're up 70c now from the bottom 2 weeks ago.

I agree, another big gap higher on the open for corn tonight. That was easily the most bullish planting/progress report in history from this excessively wet weather across key production areas for weeks.

Here's the link to the USDA crop condition report.


Below is what was expected.

POLL: U.S. Crop Progress, May 26 The 5-year average for #corn planting is 90% (same with spring #wheat). For #soybeans, the average is 66%. If analysts are correct, 2019 will stay the slowest on record for corn. The top three slowest are 1995-67%, 1983-73%, 1993-79%. #plant19



By metmike - May 28, 2019, 5:58 p.m.
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      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                                             


Historical national corn planting progress as of May 26 (since 1987) One word...unprecedented 19 points of progress (or less) for the coming week...and this year will be slowest for the week ending June 2 as well (77% done on June 2 in 1995)



  The top slowest years for #corn planting on May 26.............going all the way back to 1982.

1) 2019 58%

 2) 1995 67% 

3) 1983 73% 

4) 1993 78% 

5) 1996 78% 

6) 1984 79% 

7) 1982 79% 

8) 1990 80%

 #Soybeans: Going back to 1980

 1) 1990 25% 

2) 1983 25% 

3) 1995 27%

 4) 2019 29%

5) 1984 32% 

6) 1993 34% 

7) 1996 35%

 8) 1981 35%

By metmike - May 28, 2019, 6:07 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  2h2 hours ago              


Only 58% of U.S. #corn was planted as of May 26, the slowest pace on record. That is only +9 points on the week and drastically lower than the average of 90%. The trade was expecting 63%. #plant19



By metmike - May 28, 2019, 6:14 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  21m21 minutes ago              


Only 32% of U.S. #corn had emerged by May 26 compared with a 5-year average of 69%. That is RECORD slow by far. Here are the next few slowest (records since 1999): 2) 2002 53% 3) 2013 54% 4) 2008 55% 5) 2011 57% 6) 2009 58%



By metmike - May 28, 2019, 6:16 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                                              


On May 26, the United States still had 99 million acres of both #corn and #soybeans left to plant. That is the most ever by far. Here are the next 4: 2) 1995 70.1 million 3) 1996 58.2 million 4) 2013 56.8 million 5) 2011 56.5 million#plant19



By metmike - May 28, 2019, 6:17 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  1h1 hour ago              


Here's some more analysis. U.S. planting progress for #corn and #soybeans on May 26 versus the final yield deviation from trend for the last 30 years. Far into uncharted waters with corn. #plant19





By metmike - May 28, 2019, 8:43 p.m.
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Big cluster of storms in the wet areas adding to the early bullish enthusiasm tonight!

through 0008 UTC 05/29/2019

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

Central Great Lakes sector loop

By metmike - May 28, 2019, 8:51 p.m.
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These are the last gasp, near the end of the extremely bullish wet weather pattern storms. There will be more of them tomorrow as they sink farther south.

Question now is if the news can get any more bullish than it was after the release of the most bullish planting progress report in history in combination with these storms?

If this pattern was to continue for another week, then yes............but it will be turning drier.

Planting progress will still be the slowest ever next Monday but could catch up fast after that IF we dry out like the maps say(looks like chances for trend yields this year are extremely low and on corn acres that are way lower).

There is an increased risk for an early freeze to do damage this year from the crop not mature yet, like what happened in 1995 with the mid Sept freeze that went all the say down to s.IL s.IN.

By bowyer - May 29, 2019, 8:40 a.m.
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Another 2.8 " rain  last night . Looks like the corn market topped overnight

By tjc - May 29, 2019, 9:32 a.m.
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  2.2 here in north central Illinois.  More forecasted today, thurs/fri, sat night.

  Most likely PP for this Landlord

  Tend to agree near term (only) peak made around 6 this morning.  (Better buy dip into Friday morning)

  Lead month high in 2016 was 439; in 2015 was 443, then 519.5 in 2014.

By wglassfo - May 29, 2019, 11:03 a.m.
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Some body asked if anybody had a decent crop of corn or beans growing

Hard to believe but some have it wet and a good bit of crop is actually suffering from drought

Fl, AL, GA and some lower eastern states with excessive heat [NC SC, VA wants rain] The other states have  withered and turned to pine apple. Granted some irrigate as our sweet corn friends, now harvesting  in GA do that

Given the fact much of this crop was mudded in, compaction and drought [lower states with heat] could be the summer problem, for a big chunk of acreage

Somebody did the math and by a very conservative estimate of yields and acres planted the surplus could disappear or even more

We got 4 hrs of planting done yesterday with rain last nite, so nothing will move today

We still have a bunch of corn to plant, even going around wet or water spots. [That really sucks]

June corn doesn't yield for us but with no PP or crop insur. what can we do

Zero beans in the ground and a crop of corn that will struggle to mature or yield

Have already switched to planting  early day corn, long ago

One more thing

Will N get side dressed as I would think most of it is gone. Who gets product in a timely window??

The bean window for dicamba weed control will be a problem so lots of weedy bean fields

Weeds and beans do not yield

Not much good can be said for this yrs yield expectations at this time frame. Only bright spot is some decent wheat in places [Parts of Texas, that escaped flooding]

How many will even be able to take advantage of higher prices and on what % of their crop??

J.D and CNH report slower Ag machinery sales  

Was that a surprise to anybody???

People might not take food for granted if we have back to back crop problems

Did anybody look into army worn problems in china???

That is some thing to watch down the road

By metmike - May 29, 2019, 4:27 p.m.
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The most bullish planting progress report in history was traded and the worst of the extreme rains is past. Drier weather ahead in week 2 but not completely dry. In fact, the new system coming in late week 1 added rains today but it wasn't bullish enough to keep us up. 

That doesn't mean that we won't make new highs, just that the news, which has been getting off the charts bullish, couldn't get any more bullish at the moment. 


By metmike - May 29, 2019, 8:52 p.m.
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Corn closed last night's huge gap higher from the most bullish planting progress report in history, shortly after the open this morning. 

This is the textbook/classic signature of an exhaustion gap............extreme, even panic buying at the market, hitting the offers and not caring about price with the gap higher(that features prices opening higher than the highs of the previous session)  then, after this is exhausted, prices collapse lower and in the absence of this buying fuel, sellers have to get more aggressive selling at lower prices to find enough buyers in order to get filled with their sell orders.

Beans have not filled their gap higher from last night however. July beans have the open gap between Tuesdays hihg of 858.25 and Wednesdays low of 863.25, so around a 5c unfilled gap. 

What's even more interesting in the corn and beans is that they also had gaps higher on Monday evenings open.

For the beans, that gap is way down, just below 838(Tuesdays low) to 834(Fridays high). For July Corn, its between around 404.75 and 407. (Fri high and Tue low).

The corn fundamentals have turned so extraordinarily bullish here because this years crop is going to be tiny(smallest since at least 2012 for sure) and this is be a supply side drive to ration what has been poor demand. 

Beans stocks have been at massive record highs(because of 6 record production years in a ro, along with poor demand or we wouldn't still be well below $9 but bean prices are showing the most resilience today, holding last nights gap, while corn closed its gap and is 13c below the open from last night currently.

I will venture to guess that alot of the buy corn, sell beans trades because of the extreme rains coming were reversed to day because of the extreme rains ending............so sell corn and buy beans spreads since last nights open.

The news in corn, also could not have been more bullish in May. I guess the planting report showing just 58% planted in late May, was sort of like a crop condition report showing the condition deteriorating by 6% or more.........so the 10c higher open last night, even after having already gone up close to 80c for the 2 weeks prior to that. 

Most of the wet areas will not plant for another week but we have another potential  fairly wet system early next week....then it looks pretty dry. The bean market that was trading a switch from corn to beans because it was getting late, can actually trade on it getting so late that bean production will really start to go down.

By bowyer - May 29, 2019, 9:26 p.m.
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Thanks for your commentary. I was watching corn free falling and should have taken some profits, but couldn't believe it could drop so fast. Should have recognized what was happening. Several believe $5+ will happen but won't happen until at least late summer. Maybe I should take profits on $4 dec calls and buy back later, cheaper

By cutworm - May 29, 2019, 9:51 p.m.
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Met mike said

This is the textbook/classic signature of an exhaustion gap............extreme, even panic buying at the market, hitting the offers and not caring about price with the gap higher(that features prices opening higher than the highs of the previous session)  then, after this is exhausted, prices collapse lower and in the absence of this buying fuel, sellers have to get more aggressive selling at lower prices to find enough buyers in order to get filled with their sell orders.

I have seen this before the drop will be faster and farther than most think. I made good money shorting after a key reversal that is after a gap like this . Sold a large amount of my 2019 crop today.

By silverspiker - May 29, 2019, 11:06 p.m.
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.... the aqua marine lime green line @ 3-48 was my entry ...  exited and liquidated  my 

N - July corn longs @ 4-32  ... nice run ... flat as a pancake ...

    === James Gang Funk #49   PUSH & PULL THE BINGER


By metmike - June 3, 2019, 11:06 a.m.
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By silverspiker - June 3, 2019, 11:48 a.m.
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....risk to reward ..... (*get it ? *)

No photo description available.

....risk to reward ..... (*get it ? *)

By wglassfo - June 3, 2019, 12:31 p.m.
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I am sure some folks further south have a longer spring planting window

As for us, in the Great Lakes areas of Ontario, this week will be the last of the corn planted, unless for silage corn 

Even this weeks planting is a crap shoot for maturity using early day varieties

We have planted a couple days into June but never this late

Currently we had rain and are waiting for corn ground to dry

Overall in Ontario there is a large part with zero work done. Not a wheel turned

This yr Ontario will produce the smallest corn crop in yrs.  Probably the smallest crop in 50 yrs, when 125 BPA was an average crop "here" in the 1960's

Huge tracts of land simply will not see any corn and mid June beans will happen or even July as we have no PP

Around here mid June or later will produce approx. 20-30 bu beans or less [on average] as we approach last part of June

Latest I ever planted beans was June 10 and they yielded 39 BPA

This yr will be later

So: we do not affect the big picture but many farmers will have a serious short fall of cash come 2020 spring planting time

All of our corn buyers have told us not to sell as the price is going higher

By metmike - June 3, 2019, 2:22 p.m.
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Thanks Wayne!

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  2h2 hours ago              


U.S. Crop Progress expectations for June 2. The five-year planting average for #corn on this date is 96%. 71% would be slowest on record (next: 1995 77%, 1982 85%) Five-year average for #soybeans is 79%. 42% would be second slowest (1995 40%)#plant19



By metmike - June 3, 2019, 2:24 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  2h2 hours ago              


Here are slowest June 2 planting and yield deviations.

 For corn it is getting late for the comparisons, tho. Not many super slow ones anymore.


1) 1995 77% -12% 

2) 1982 85% +8% 

3) 1983/1996 86% -24%/-3%


1) 1995 40% -2%

 2) 1990 45% +3% 

3) 1983/1996 45% -11%/+2%

By metmike - June 3, 2019, 4:03 p.m.
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Corn 67% planted lower than expected

Beans 39% correction to the first number.....am away from the computer.......this was also on the low side.


By beaners - June 3, 2019, 5:02 p.m.
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market expected this...so no real surprises....?

By cliff-e - June 3, 2019, 5:03 p.m.
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