Corn planting
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Started by metmike - May 6, 2018, 10:13 p.m.

Last week, only 17% of the US corn crop was planted vs the average of 27%.

This was up from just 5% the previous week and much higher than the slowest ever, 2013 when only 5% of the corn crop was planted.

The fastest ever was drought year 2012, when 69% was planted.

Last week, many places were catching up fast planting, especially the eastern and southern Cornbelt. Mcfarm remembers last year, how his crop didn't get planted and it was June but alot of planters were rolling in IN last week......even though IN was only 8% planted as of a week ago.

The average planting pace for tomorrows USDA report is 52%. We will probably be less than that but much faster than 2013, which still had less than 10% planted after the first week in May.........then the weather turned warm and dry and by May 26, 2013, 86% of the corn crop was planted vs the average of 90% near the end of May.

Any guesses on how much corn will be planted on tomorrows report?

I'll say 44%, just under the pace from last year

By metmike - May 7, 2018, 10:14 a.m.
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Dec corn has strong support just below 415, at last weeks lows.

It's down almost 5c at the moment and like the beans and wheat, not looking so good. 

Wet weather this week took a turn for the drier look overnight which might be a factor but planting delay weather scares rarely last...............since the market knows that the crop will eventually get planted, then it trades growing season weather which is what matters.

There is a USDA report our Thursday. 

By Jim_M - May 7, 2018, 11:07 a.m.
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IMO, the down draft today is the negativity from the China negotiations over tariffs and it's impact on beans.  

I would be extremely surprised if December corn hits $4.10 this week, especially with the USDA report this week and the expectations for a tighter ES scenario this year.  Add to it the dryness in the southern states and I think we are setting up for quite the weather market this year.  

By metmike - May 7, 2018, 3:40 p.m.
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Agree Jim,

Corn is having a hard time going lower. The Export inspections number this morning was huge.

The fundamentals have drastically shifted to being bullish in the corn market............after the massively bearish 2 years previously. 

Planted acres will be down and some of the corn is going in late, which means it will be more at risk for weather adversity.

Average or better growing season weather happens more than bad weather and the crop will be made based on that. 

By metmike - May 7, 2018, 4:31 p.m.
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Corn planted was 39%, a bit less than I wild guessed. Going to try something new by manipulating the USDA chart to post below.

 State  May 6, April 29, :  May 6,   : 2013-2017                                               :        2017    2018    :   2018    :  Average                                            :                                               Colorado  27           7          16          30     Illinois  65          32          74          56     Indiana   50           8          42          33     Iowa ...  49          17          40          48     Kansas .  44          27          47          48     Kentucky  49          15          37          48     Michigan   9           3          14          17     Minnesota 32           -           9          44     Missouri  76          52          78          66     Nebraska  46          17          42          46     North Car 87          63          81          84     North Dak 20           -           7          24     Ohio .... 45           1          23          27     Pennsylva 24           1           9          26     South Dak 28           -           6          33     Tennessee 75          36          65          71     Texas ....76          70          81          72     Wisconsin 14           3          15          25                      :                                               18 States 45          17          39          44     
By metmike - May 7, 2018, 4:34 p.m.
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I see that posting the USDA graph for planted corn did not work so well.

Will send it to the web page designer.

By cliff-e - May 7, 2018, 9:48 p.m.
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Meanwhile in the lovely #4 corn producing state of Mn. we're floundering at just 9% corn planted and on our farm we have yet to start as there are just too many places the ducks, geese and carp are swimming in our fields. And where the water has stood too long the soil has sealed up and choked out the oxygen in the soil so that it stinks like a slough. The prevented plant option is looking more appealing as each day passes.

By metmike - May 7, 2018, 10:27 p.m.
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Sorry to deliver more bad news to you cliff.

MN is the farthest behind of any state right now and will be even farther behind average on next weeks crop progress report since it will also, probably have the most rain in the next 7 days. 

By the last week in May, MN is usually around 95% planted....probably not this year.  The good news is that, after this week, the NWS thinks the weather will turn very warm and dry in MN.

Not sure that I agree with that as waves riding around the heat ridge may ignite more thunderstorm activity than expected in their outlook.....hopefully not.


Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By mcfarm - May 8, 2018, 6:45 a.m.
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yes metmike last year planting was a 2 time nightmare for Indiana and Ohio. This year the boys in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisc are really getting hammered.....many report only a few acres planted with the conditions miserable with rains likely.....and that is big corn country when you ad northern Iowa to it