INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - May 30, 2019, 3:56 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, May 31, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.9%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% previous +0.2%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% previous +1.5%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.0%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 626.0K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 541.0K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 393.3K)



9:45 AM ET. May ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (expected 53.0; previous 52.6)



10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 101.0; previous 97.2)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.4)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.3)



3:00 PM ET. May Agricultural Prices



                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +2.8%)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The June NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7103.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7495.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7495.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 7183.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7103.16.  



The June S&P 500 posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2857.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2857.55. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2650.94.  



The Dow posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,795.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,755.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,755.15. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 26,695.96. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,795.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,204.24.



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June T-bonds closed up 12/32's at 153-04.



June T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 154-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 153-05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 154-27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 150-23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-20.          



June T-notes closed up 25-pts. At 125.225.



June T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.260 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.126 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 125.270. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.260. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.126. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.293.      



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July crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off April's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 55.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 63.96. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 55.32. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 52.66. 



July heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally rally crossing at 188.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.26. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.81. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally rally crossing at 182.52. 



July unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 208.54. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 209.69. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.48.



July Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's decline, April's low crossing at 2.534 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.693 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.693. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.824. First support is April's low crossing at 2.534. Second support is the February-2019 low crossing at 2.510.        



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Thursday's crossing at 97.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 97.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.15.



The June Euro closed unchanged on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.71 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.71. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16.     



The June British Pound closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2412 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2868 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2701. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2868. First support is January's low crossing at 1.2591. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2412.   



The June Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9919 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0073 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0013. Second resistance is the the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0073. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9919. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. 



The June Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 73.85. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.  



The June Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0898.  



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June gold closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1290.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1302.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.



July silver closed higher on Thursday due to short covering. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.638 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.638. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.955. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 14.265. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.          



July copper closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 269.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 273.60. First support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76. Second support is January's low crossing at 256.10.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed up 18-cents at 4.36 3/4. 



July corn closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, last-May's high crossing at 4.45 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.38. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 4.04 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.00 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82.   



July wheat closed up 23 1/2-cents at 5.14. 



July wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.66 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.21 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.82 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.60 1/2.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed up 25 3/4-cents at 4.79.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.20 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.20 1/2.  



July Minneapolis wheat closed up 14 3/4-cents at 5.63 1/2. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.43 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.31.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed up 151/4-cents at 8.87 1/4.



July soybeans closed higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.72 1/2 thereby opening the door for a larger-degree rally into June. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's gap crossing at 8.58 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8.92 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 8.17. Second support is May's low crossing at 7.91.  



July soybean meal closed up $7.70 at 326.70. 



July soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 293.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 283.10.    



July soybean oil closed up 1-pts. at 27.74. 



July soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.20 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into June. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.20. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 29.72. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.     

 

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June hogs closed down $1.53 at $83.67. 



June hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08. 



June cattle closed down $2.28 at 110.08. 



June cattle closed lower on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37 is the next downside target. Closes above today's high crossing at 113.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.47. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. Second support is  the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37.

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $4.50 at $138.23. 



August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.80 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 143.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is today's low crossing at 138.22. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at 10.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, last-July's high crossing at 25.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.35 is the next upside target. If July renews this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. 



July cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - May 30, 2019, 6:42 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

We added a bunch of rain to the forecast for next week.