KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday June 4, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.3%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)
9:45 AM ET. May ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 77.3)
10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected -1.0%; previous +1.9%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.7%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.7%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
4:00 PM ET. World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 411.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 259.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1255.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -6.0%)
8:15 AM ET. May ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +170000; previous +275000)
9:45 AM ET. May US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.0)
10:00 AM ET. May ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.0; previous 55.5)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 59.5)
Prices Idx (previous 55.7)
Employment Idx (previous 53.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 58.1)
10:00 AM ET. May Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 476.493M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.282M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.944M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous 2.204M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 124.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.615M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.458M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.797M
11:00 AM ET. May Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.7)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7388.06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7245.57. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7388.06. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6623.56.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2831.83 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2831.83. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2892.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2650.94.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 155-22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 152-12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-24.
June T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.260 is the next upside targets.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.283 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 127.025. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.260. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125.167. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.283.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.83 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 57.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.83. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 52.66. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69.
July heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.33. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 169.59.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 168.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 191.76 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 187.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.21. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 168.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 159.94.
July Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 2.168 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.598 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.598. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.664. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.382. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.168.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 96.81 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target.First resistance is May's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is May's low crossing at 96.81. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.36.
The June Euro was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.58 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.58. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 113.11. First support is May's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2798 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off May's high, the October-2019 low crossing at 1.2412 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2671. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2798. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2568. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2412.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 1.0191 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9948 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.0143. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0191. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9948. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.61. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 73.74. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0929 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0936. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.905.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 1335.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1295.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1334.10. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1335.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1295.20. Second support is May's low crossing at 1273.20.
July silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.904 is the next upside target.If July resumes the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.904. Second resistance is the April 26th reaction high crossing at 15.120. First support is May's low crossing at 14.265. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, January's low crossing at 256.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 282.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 261.10. Second support is January's low crossing at 256.10.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight following Monday's bullish planting progress report. The report showed that only 67% of this year's corn crop has been planted, which is well below the five-year average of 96% planted. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to modestly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, last-May's high crossing at 4.45 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level would also mark an upside breakout of a 5-year trading range on the monthly charts. Closes below last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.38. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 4.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.09 3/4. Second support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4.
July wheat gapped higher to start the overnight trade but turned negative due to profit taking.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.71 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.95 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.71 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 13 3/4-cents at 4.86 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.52 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.28.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.68. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.51 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was higher overnight following Monday's bullish planting progress report. The report showed that only 39% of this year's soybean crop has been planted compared with the five-year average of 79% planted. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to modestly higher opening when the day session begins trading. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's gap crossing at 8.58 1/4 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8.94 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's gap crossing at 8.58 1/4. Second support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 8.20.
July soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. Closes below last- Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is last-Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00. Second support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 301.40.
July soybean oil was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.09 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.09. Second resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. First support is the reaction low crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.
Thanks tall pine!