Hightower : Corn Planting at Point of No Return
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Started by silverspiker - June 6, 2019, 12:52 p.m.

Corn Planting at Point of
No Return

This report was released, with short and long term trade strategies, on June 5th, 2019 to our subscribers.
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As of June 2nd only 67% of the US corn crop had been planted. This was up 9% from the week before but still way behind the 10-year average of 95%. This means 30.6 million acres need to be planted in June!

This is slowest plantings pace on record (back to 1980). North and western Corn Belt states of ND, SD, NE, KS and MO, which had a May 25th prevent plant date, still had 7.57 million acres left to plant as of June 2nd. South Dakota lagged the most with 3.36 million left. Central Corn Belt states with a prevent plant date of May 31st included IA, MN, and WI, and they had 6.34 million acres left to plant as of the 2nd. The eastern Corn Belt remains the major problem, with IL, IN, OH and MI having 13.66 million acres left to plant and a June 5th prevent plant date.

With the drier weather this week, we could see another 20% planted by Sunday, which would put total planted acreage to 80.7 million acres. (We are assuming that there will be very minimal interest in planting corn after this week.) This would mean a loss of 12.1 million acres from the March 1st prospective plantings estimate and the May USDA supply/demand projection. But even with the dry forecast for the remainder of the week, it could be difficult to get that 20% planted.

If we further assume a drop in yield to 173 bushels per acre from the 176 in the May USDA report (due to the late plantings) and we also assume a 350 million-bushel decline in usage, 2019/20 US ending stocks would come in at 643 million bushels, down from 2.485 billion the May update. This would result in a stocks/usage ratio of 4.5%, which would be the lowest on record and would suggest a price in excess of $6.50 per bushel.......

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By mcfarmer - June 6, 2019, 1:10 p.m.
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With the eighty degree days we have now the corn around here in NW Iowa is catching up fast.

I have two days of beans to plant, then maybe patch some holes in if I can.

By metmike - June 6, 2019, 2:08 p.m.
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Thanks mcfarmer, 

What county in IA do you farm in?

By metmike - June 6, 2019, 2:12 p.m.
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Thanks SS!

It's going to be impossible for corn supply to meet demand this year so prices will have to be high enough to ration demand. 

Since export sales were negative this morning, these prices are already doing some of that. 


By silverspiker - June 7, 2019, 1:43 a.m.
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By mcfarm - June 7, 2019, 6:35 a.m.
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with 6/10ths to 1.5 inches we had Wed nite the corn window is now closed and too wet  to plant beans. We had a total of 3 days to plant the entire corn crop this year. Even at that rate many  acres went into the ground in poor conditions. Its up to mother nature for some break in the summer weather from what we have had for months.