USDA crop report Thursday
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Started by metmike - May 9, 2018, 12:25 a.m.

Anybody have guesses for the report coming up at 11 am CDT on Thursday?

Trading on Wednesday will feature a lot of position squaring ahead of the report. 

Yeah, I know this place is still dead but plan to completely turn it around in June.

By MarkB - May 9, 2018, 1:35 a.m.
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I have to wait until the report comes out. Then trade accordingly. Not going to risk speculation ahead of it.

By metmike - May 9, 2018, 10:44 a.m.
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Smart advice. Every once in a while, like early in harvest when early yield reports have come in much lower or higher than expected and you are well connected to a source that gets accurate yields, you can play the USDA report game with a high confidence position for them to reduce or increase the size of the crop.

Otherwise, the USDA reports are a massive gamble. Huge surprises outside of the the highest or lowest pre report estimates will either give you a massive gain or massive loss in seconds. 

What stinks, is that if you have a good position on or are contemplating putting one on, the report can blow that away in seconds.

If you want to be long corn, with a plan to buy CZ at 4.15 and risk Xc for instance and the report is really bullish corn and causes CZ to spike to 4.40, your risk reward has shifted tremendously.

If its bearish, and corn spikes down to 4.05 immediately, it can be a gift to enter much cheaper............but it can also change the fundamental picture that the market was trading before the report. Only trading for awhile afterwards will tell you and if we bounce back to 4.15 pretty quickly, do you enter there?

You'd probably be best to risk new lows which means more than 10c but the new fundamentals might mean that 4.15 is now a good place to sell, instead of buy from the overall market psychology.

Wyckoff refers to market psychology as the "composite man". 

By metmike - May 9, 2018, 1:15 p.m.
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With wheat and beans down -7c and -8c, corn -1c, we can guess a few  potential things about the action:

1. Long specs are covering risk.

2. Possible selling from those that think it might be bearish.

3. Usual buying sources that offset selling on a typical day are absent because they don't want that position in front of a USDA report(will wait to see what they report shows before deciding what to do)

By metmike - May 10, 2018, 9:12 a.m.
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USDA report out today at 11am CDT

By metmike - May 10, 2018, 12:05 p.m.
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By metmike - May 10, 2018, 12:09 p.m.
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I'll try to have an interpretation later. 

However, the initial response by the market was a huge spike higher, especially the beans and corn, no so much wheat..........followed by a sell off, especially the wheat.

Beans are holding, corn went down to test lows just before the report and is unch. , wheat is making new  lows............but its been less than 10 minutes

By metmike - May 10, 2018, 3:15 p.m.
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From Farm Futures:

WASDE delivers bullish corn, soybean news


As for 2018/19 soybean ending stocks, USDA estimates just 415 million bushels – significantly below average trade guess of 533 million bushels. 


U.S. 2018/19 ending corn stocks, meantime, came in lower prior USDA estimates of 2.272 billion bushels, at just 1.682 billion bushels. That was also near but slightly higher than the average trade estimate of 1.631 billion bushels.

By metmike - May 10, 2018, 3:20 p.m.
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This thread will no longer except posts...........we are working on the issue.