Sunspots update: quietest yet of cycle
3 responses | 0 likes
Started by WxFollower - June 16, 2019, 3:22 p.m.

 I’m now seeing what may finally be a firmer move down closer to absolute minimum as this appears to be the quietest yet with the longest streak of spotless days yet whether you look at Solarham or at SIDC:

http://www.solarham.net/wwv.htm

http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles


 I’ve been anticipating the deepest cycle minimum in at least 200 years and we may finally actually see evidence of this soon. Whereas the first 4.5 months of 2019 have at times been a little more active than what I had expected, the rest of 2019 as well as all of 2020 and possibly all of 2021 into early 2022 may be the big show I’ve been expecting. Let’s sit back and watch what may very well be an historically deep minimum!

Comments
By mcfarmer - June 16, 2019, 4 p.m.
Like Reply

Interesting, any implications for weather ?

By WxFollower - June 16, 2019, 4:43 p.m.
Like Reply

McFarmer,

 At this point, not much imo. I had been thinking the active sun may have been more of an influence on the warming of 1950-2000. However, here we are in 2019, 12+ years into an overall very weak solar period and we sit at or near at least multidecadal highs globally. I'm having trouble believing the lag is so long as to delay any cooling from the much less active sun (weakest in 100-200 years) past the present period. The idea in my mind was that indirect effects of a weaker sun would be the main influence (such as via increased cosmic rays reaching Earth thus leading to cooling from increased low cloudcover), if the weaker sun were to have much influence at all. But again, here we are well into 2019 and pretty much nothing to show for it. So, I as of now think no more than a little global cooling will occur due to the weaker sun.

By metmike - June 17, 2019, 8:03 p.m.
Like Reply

I agree with Larry that we haven't been able to measure or detect any cooling that may have occurred from the weaker sunspot activity.


There are several things going on though.

1. It's impossible to separate warming/cooling from individual contributors in the global averaged temperature. Warming from the physics of the increase in greenhouse gases, mainly CO2,  has with 90% confidence,  been the biggest  contributor to the warming of the last 100+ years. Warming from the grand solar maximum during that same century?  If not for similar warming events during the Medieval Warm period, 1,000 years ago, the Roman Warm Period and Minoan Warm periods, I would be 99.9% confident that almost all of it was from the increase in CO2. The Holocene Climate Optimum between 5,000 and 9,000 years ago was much warmer than this in the Arctic and we have no explanation for what caused that.

Maybe the biggest tell tale sign of CO2 warming vs other warming is a hot spot aloft in the tropics...........that has failed to show up the way it should, which makes me less confident in the amount of warming caused by CO2:

Study: Tropical Hotspot ‘Fingerprint’ Of Global Warming Doesn’t Exist In The Real World Data

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/22/study-tropical-hotspot-fingerprint-of-global-warming-doesnt-exist-in-the-real-world-data/


2. The amount of heat that is stored in the oceans is over 1,000 times that in the atmosphere. The oceans can store heat for many decades, so an excessive amount of heat the went in, let's say 50 years ago, during the grand  solar maximum that lasted decades, could very well still be coming out now. In fact, as it turns out, half of the warming during the recent warming period has been caused by an increase in El Nino's., which are natural  warming events in the tropical  Pacific Ocean that  burp out enough extra heat to spike global temperatures as much as .5 degrees higher. 

If you look at the graph at this link, the spikes higher were during El Nino's. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/06/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2019-0-32-deg-c/

Half of 21st Century Warming Due to El Nino

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/05/half-of-21st-century-warming-due-to-el-nino/

So its possible to likely(in my opinion) that the warming has caused an increase in El Ninos vs the El Ninos causing the warming longer term but the point here is that the heat coming out in recent El Nino's  could be part of the release of excessive heat that accumulated for decades last century during the solar grand max and would mask any cooling in the early part of a solar grand min. 

3. We use global surface temperatures to monitor warming because that's where we live and it matters the most by a wide margin but only a tiny fraction of the heat in the system exists there. It's good to measure the amount of increase in heat in the entire atmosphere but this is the tail of the dog.  The big dog is the oceans. They contain 1,000 times more heat than the atmosphere and we don't really know what the heat content change is in the deep oceans. Oceans have enormous thermal inertia on the scale of decades as mentioned above. If there was a measurable effect from the increase in cosmic rays because of the weak solar wind from almost no sunspots, I would not expect it to show up in temperature graphs of the atmosphere. 

If you live by a big lake or ocean, in the Spring when you have your first 80 degree temperatures, do you expect the ocean temperature to respond?  And the oceans don't even use the warming air temperatures as their main source for warming up. It's the angle of the sun in the sky gradually increasing and generating more power/heat which does the vast majority of heating of the oceans. 

The angle of the sun today, is still the angle of the sun a year ago on this date and the same as 100 years ago on this date. The sun is actually a tiny bit weaker during these minimums but nothing even close to suggesting that it could make much difference in the amount of heat going into the oceans or cooling the planet. 

A theory suggests that these solar mins cause more clouds, which in turn have a significant effect(over decades). The main evidence with this theory is related to the Little Ice Age that lasted over a century,  coinciding with  a period of very little sunspot activity.


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/15/the-sun-is-blank-nasa-data-shows-it-to-be-dimming/

Across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, the sun’s output has dropped nearly 0.1% compared to the Solar Maximum of 2012-2014. This plot shows the TSI since 1978 as observed from nine previous satellites:

Energy content, the heat is on: atmosphere -vs- ocean

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/06/energy-content-the-heat-is-on-atmosphere-vs-ocean/

 
    
 

I decided to make this graphic to put it all in perspective: