Such an awesome chart if worth seeing twice!!
Thanks tallpine!
The supply fundamentals are extremely bullish with the small 2019 new crop growing right now and what's planted is what's planted.
The June USDA acreage report, next Friday will be the most important acreage report in history!
https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/will-usda-drop-corn-acreage-by-3-6-or-10-million
Uncertainty about corn acreage looks to remain in place through the summer.
"Corn futures prices rallied about $0.90 per bushel since the beginning of May.
The rally reflects expectations that planted acreage will fall well short of March intentions and on yield concerns associated with wide-ranging late planting.
Demand weakness continues to emerge in the export market, but supply issues look to overwhelm any decrease in demand. The release of USDA’s Grain Stocks and Acreage reports on June 28 looks to set the tone for summer corn prices.
The reduction in corn planted acreage by three million acres and corn yield by 10 bushels per acre in the June WASDE appears to be a harbinger of things to come this year. The June estimate of planted acreage of corn is generally expected to be far less than intentions of 92.8 million acres reported in March.
The only question remaining is the scale of acreage loss. The magnitude of prevented planting acres this year looks to eclipse the previous record of 3.6 million acres in 2013 by a wide margin. As of June 9, 14.5 million acres remained unplanted in the 18 states reported in the Crop Progress report. The amount of prevented planted acreage in those estimates remains uncertain, but the prospect of planting more than 14 million acres of corn after June 10 seems daunting.
Additionally, some acreage may have been switched to soybeans due to delayed corn planting over large areas of the Corn Belt. Recent wet weather brings soybean acreage planting into question as well. However, the prospect of a new round of Market Facilitation Payments provides a strong incentive to plant soybeans in the second half of June if weather permits.
The June acreage estimate will probably not be changed until FSA certified acreage data becomes available in October. The final acreage estimate released in January tends to be less than the June estimate.
Since 1996, the final estimate averaged 626,000 acres less than the June acreage report in years when prevented planting acreage exceeded one million acres. This year may see a substantial drop from the June acreage estimate due to the uncertainty about planting during the survey period."
