USDA report Friday
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Started by metmike - June 25, 2019, 3:08 p.m.


Acreage will be in focus but don't forget about stocks on Friday. Trade sees June 1 #corn stocks up 0.5% from a year ago but #soybeans up 53% to record levels. Corn would be 3rd largest after '87 & '88. #Wheat stocks (effectively 18/19 carryout) are pegged identical to last year.



By metmike - June 26, 2019, 10:51 a.m.
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By metmike - June 28, 2019, 12:16 p.m.
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One of the biggest shockers ever. Corn acres way above all expectations, bean acres much below.

Corn could touch limit down...........though the market will NOT believe these numbers.

USDA/NASS June acreage survey results:#Corn well above expectations#Soybeans well below expectations#Wheat near expectations



By metmike - June 28, 2019, 12:19 p.m.
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  Stocks all come in lower than expected.

By Jim_M - June 28, 2019, 12:24 p.m.
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With the amount of wetness and late planting this year, if there wasn't a significant amount of crop switching, then that philosophy will forever be dead.  

By metmike - June 28, 2019, 12:42 p.m.
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As I speculated shortly after the release, corn has hit the 25c limit down.

In December, that's 426, which is where we are at and been locked there at times.

By Jim_M - June 28, 2019, 12:47 p.m.
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Seems like the USDA just punted until August.  If you read the whole report they do nothing but talk about the poor and late planting conditions.  They give no credence to crop switching at all.  Must be a myth

By metmike - June 28, 2019, 1:05 p.m.
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metmike: This will NOT be the final acreage or even close to it!!!!

      Chip Flory@ChipFlory                  14m14 minutes ago              



@LanceHonig @usda_nass This means acres will be resurveyed for August Crop Production Report, right?





By metmike - June 28, 2019, 4:28 p.m.
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The problem is that the USDA is using old data. Many farmers still INTENDED on planting corn earlier this month when they responded to the survey and ended up NOT planting because we had another week of very wet weather that came after that..........which changed it from very late to TOO late.

Planted acres for corn will be at least 3 million less in August and bean acres will be up.

This USDA report was the saddest USDA report in history. What really was the point in giving us a junk acreage estimate based on conditions from weeks ago, that have changed drastically and was dialed in with much higher prices?

I have suggested potential corruption within the offices of the USDA previously based on surprises that make no sense.......going from a bullish surprise on one report to a bearish surprise on the next report and missing the actual target both times from releasing outlier reports. 

Outlier reports cause massive moves like today when people that know the results beforehand make a lot of money on.

There was nobody in the USDA that had/knew these shocking numbers that didn't know exactly what the market reaction would be. 

It was a shocker because EVERYBODY else, all the private firms and big market players were expecting the USDA to better reflect the reality in the fields/market.  The one that everybody else knows exists.

So the USDA. THE authority and organization we pay to be the best and have the best and latest information on crops for traders and producers and end users to base their decision making on.................billions in value.........just gave us the WORST estimate possible. 

But they are smart enough to have known this is exactly what was going to happen. To justify it by using limitations in the survey as an excuse, when they know that it reflected BAD information and to still put in BAD information that they knew would have this intentional. 

When people do things like this intentionally, their motives must be questioned.

By Jim_M - June 28, 2019, 7:36 p.m.
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I couldn’t agree more.  Some people made some serious money today and my guess if that they are dangerously close to the USDA

By bowyer - June 28, 2019, 10:30 p.m.
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The report was a joke. USDA is corrupt. How could they even put out those numbers?

By metmike - June 28, 2019, 11:08 p.m.
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Just to be clear on what happened  today with this report. This has been the slowest planting season in history by a wide margin because of soils too wet to plant all the way until this week in some places. It got too late to plant corn on at least 4 million acres in the Eastern Cornbelt.....probably more.  The USDA came out with an acreage estimate today that cut acres from the March report by only 1 million acres. The USDA estimate  for planted acres for corn  was not only 6 million acres above the average trade guess from all the professional firms but it was 2 million acres above even the highest guess in that group of experts and 10 million higher than the lowest guess.  It's almost impossible for the USDA's number released today to be correct.

They did something similar with the soybeans, only in the opposite direction. Their number was 4 million less than the average trade guess and 1 million lower than  even the lowest guess from all the professional firms. There is a very small chance that their estimate is close to being accurate for beans if many, many farmers, who were set on planting corn, when it got too late for corn,  decided to plant nothing this year and take the pp crop insurance instead.

By metmike - June 28, 2019, 11:20 p.m.
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How Late is Too Late for Corn and Soybean Planting?

This wonderful article was written on June 13th 2013(a previous wet year for Illinois)

It’s very late to plant or to replant corn, and for many with unplanted fields or with poor stands that may need to be replanted, the choice is whether it makes sense to plant corn this late, and if not, whether the best option is prevented-planting insurance or replacement with soybeans, as crop insurance provisions allow.

Table 2.3 in Chapter 2 of the Illinois Agronomy Handbook  indicates that we can expect a corn crop to yield about two-thirds of its expected (early-planted) maximum yield if the crop is planted on June 8 and has a full stand. That is a projection, since most of our corn planting date studies include planting only through the end of May. Based on this, however, we have projected that corn reaches the point where we can expect 50 percent of maximum yield if it is planted sometime between June 15 and June 20.

I reanalyzed our more recent planting date data, and if – this is a big "if" – we can accept projections of yield that go well past the last planting date, we would move the planting date from which we’d expect half a crop a little later, closer to the end of June. But we know that corn planted during or after the middle of June will produce fair to good yields in some years and very little yield in other years, depending on unpredictable weather that follows. Hence it makes sense to consider June 15 to 20 to be that last "practical" date on which to plant corn if we want to produce grain.

If we do plant corn in mid- to late June, planting a very early hybrid, having the option of harvesting the crop as silage if grain production looks unlikely, and getting good rainfall throughout the rest of the season will all improve the chances of ending up with a profitable crop. The chances of having enough frost-free days to grow a crop are higher in central and southern Illinois than farther north, but higher water loss rates and lower water-holding capacity of soils can cancel this advantage. It may also be difficult to get seed of very early hybrids, and because early hybrids are not developed for the central and southern Corn Belt, there is no guarantee that they will do well under late planting.

If it’s too late to plant corn and we don’t expect enough yield to make a profit (or at least to make more than crop insurance would pay to plant nothing), does it make sense to plant soybeans instead? We have run our soybean planting date studies into the first or second week of June, but we still have to project expected yields past the last date we actually planted.

Going through the same exercise as we did for corn, we would expect soybeans planted at the end of June or early in July to yield half what they would if planted early. This is about two weeks later than the normal doublecrop planting date in southern Illinois. Doublecrop soybeans have averaged 72 percent of full-season soybean yields over the past 10 years at Brownstown, so using early July as the 50-percent-of-maximum-yield planting date seems reasonable.

We know that doublecrop (or very late-planted) soybean yields can range from zero to good, and there’s no way to predict when they are planted which end of this range they’ll be on. As many found out in 2012, planting into bone-dry soils is not usually conducive to high doublecrop soybean yields. And in northern and central Illinois, doublecrop soybeans or soybean planted (or replanted) in late June or early July have had a considerably lower rate of success than doublecrop soybeans in southern Illinois.

By metmike - June 28, 2019, 11:34 p.m.
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Below is the USDA report as of June 16th, about the time when it doesn't make sense to plant corn anymore. 

92% of the intended corn acres were planted as of that date and in fact, some acreage intended for corn had already switched to beans at that late point in time.

That left roughly 8% not planted to corn yet. Any corn planted after that date, has yield prospects of 50%. Producers knowing this, are very unlikely to plant corn after this date. They can plant beans for another few weeks or take the PP insurance.

The USDA, knowing this, only cut planted acres by a little more than 1% in today's report!!!


By metmike - June 28, 2019, 11:43 p.m.
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  U.S. #corn plantings by state from USDA's June survey.

 National pegged at 91.7 mln acres.......around 1 million less than the previous number. South Dakota had the biggest difference from March intentions, lighter losses in North Dakota, Illinois, Ohio, & Wisconsin. Nebraska, Kansas, & Kentucky added acres from March.

Note that they kept corn acres in Indiana the same, with miniscule cuts in Ohio and Illinois. No way can this be right!


By metmike - June 28, 2019, 11:45 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                     

  USDA's June survey showed a shockingly large reduction in plantings of #soybeans from March intentions - 80 million acres from 84.6 mln in March. Largest difference was -800,000 acres in South Dakota. Every major state reported fewer soy acres than intended.

                                                 Low soybean prices were obviously a huge factor.


By cliff-e - June 29, 2019, 7:26 a.m.
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Since the USDA allowed haying/grazing on PP acres beginning Sept. 1 and THEN allowed the sale of hay from those acres and THEN allowed the planting and harvesting of silage corn at lower pop. rates for sale...will they now rescind all those hastily made decisions on PP acres since they've now reported seemingly no grain production problems this year?

The chances of that happening are slim and none and SLIM just left town. It's all about cheap feed for well heeled campaign contributors. And here's one of them...

By metmike - June 30, 2019, 2:28 p.m.
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      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  17h17 hours ago              


Average high temperature (deg F) for France and nearby areas for the four-day period of June 26-29 (major corn growing areas shaded in light green)



By metmike - June 30, 2019, 2:39 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  Jun 28              


Here's what the market did with #corn prices from late May through June. Look at that compared with #soybeans. USDA surveyed farmers in the first two weeks of June. Not surprising that many farmers either planted or still hoped to plant corn as of that survey.


Consider the insurance guarantees for each (avg Feb. price of new-crop futures). #Corn $4/bushel, #soybeans $9.54/bushel. Beans haven't touched that price since February. Corn has recently topped out 73 cents above, as of this post still 34 cents above.                                                                              




By metmike - June 30, 2019, 2:42 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                           


Summary of June 1 grain stocks versus a year ago. U.S. #corn stocks were slightly below last year, but farmers were storing more this year than last. Farmers were holding nearly double the amount of #soybeans from last year. More #wheat on farms, too.



By Jim_M - July 1, 2019, 10:03 a.m.
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It's funny how the ES of beans has doubled a couple times over and yet the price is essentially the same the last 4 years.  

By metmike - July 1, 2019, 11:07 a.m.
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Good observation Jim!

Maybe there is a floor for soybeans based on value longer term.

Export inspections this morning.

Great for wheat, pretty good for beans but we are rationing corn with these high prices and demand has dropped off a cliff:

By metmike - July 2, 2019, 11:57 a.m.
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Northey: Prevented planting could hit more than 10 million acres

"The number of acres that American farmers are unable to plant this year due to wet weather may exceed 10 million acres, the highest number reported in recent years, Agriculture Undersecretary for Farm Production and Conservation Bill Northey said today.

The number of acres that farmers have reported as unplantable in previous years has ranged from 2 million to 10 million acres, Northey said, adding that he expects the number of acres reported this year to be “many multiples” of the lower figure and “at least the high end of what the previous range was.”

Northey spoke to reporters in a telephone call with officials of the Farm Service Agency, the Risk Management Agency, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

A USDA survey of farmers’ planting intentions released last week has been criticized as out of date and inaccurate, and USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service has said that it will re-survey farmers on their planting intentions."

Northey said he did not know when NASS would conduct that survey, but noted that his agencies deal with actual planting data, not intentions.

USDA has already processed claims for more than $151 million in prevented planting and the total claims are likely to reach more than $1 billion, the officials said.

By Jim_M - July 2, 2019, 12:04 p.m.
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That's just PP.  Throw in some crop switching with that and it takes a big number and makes it even bigger.  Has the USDA created someone of a problem here?  

By metmike - July 2, 2019, 12:08 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  4m4 minutes ago              


The most prevented planting acres in the U.S. was 9.62 million in 2011. Some 43% of that was #wheat, and 47% of those total acres was in North Dakota. Another 13% was in South Dakota. 2013 came in 2nd with 8.3 million acres. North Dakota claimed 34% and Minnesota 11%. #AGTRIVIA