KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 18.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 266.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1949.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.2%)
7:30 AM ET. June Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +46%)
8:15 AM ET. June ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +27000)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 227K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1688000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)
8:30 AM ET. May U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -50.79B)
Exports (USD) (previous 206.847B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
Imports (USD) (previous 257.638B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
9:45 PM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 PM ET. June US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.9)
10:00 AM ET. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 56.9)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.2)
Prices Idx (previous 55.4)
Employment Idx (previous 58.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 58.6)
10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -2.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:00 AM ET. May Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 469.576M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -12.788M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.225M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.996M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.38M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.441M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.876M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.069M)
11:00 AM ET. June Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.6)
12:00 PM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2301B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)
1300/1700 U.S. financial markets close early for Independence Day
Thursday, July 4, 2019
N/A Marianas: U.S. Independence Day
N/A U.S. Independence Day. Financial markets closed
Friday, July 5, 2019
8:30 AM ET. June U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +75K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.6%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.83)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.22%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous 3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous -15K)
Private Payroll (previous +90K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.8%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 405.0K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 487.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 612.1K)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 7910.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7607.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7849.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7910.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7607.45. Second support is June's low crossing at 6969.00.
The September S&P 500 posted a quiet inside day with a slightly higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2915.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2981.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2915.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2885.00.
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the rally off June's low, last-October's high crossing at 26,951.81 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,326.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 26,907.37. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,633.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,326.41.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed up 1-02/32's at 156-02.
September T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high high crossing at 156-17. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-23. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 153-17.
September T-notes closed up 135-pts. At 128.035.
September T-notes closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 130.010 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.155 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 128.085. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.155. Second support is June's low crossing at 126.155.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil sharply lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.37 is the next downside target. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the May 20th reaction high crossing at 64.03 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 64.03. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.37. Second support is June's low crossing at 50.79.
August heating oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.96. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74.
August unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 200.99 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 196.53. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 200.99. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 185.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.22.
August Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.307 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.307. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.493. First support is June's low crossing at 2.134. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.27 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.71 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at 94.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at 96.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 97.26. First support is June's low crossing at 95.36. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.78.
The September Euro closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 116.21 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support June's low crossing at 112.62. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.
The September British Pound closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the May-June trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2849 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2830. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2849. First support is June's low crossing at 1.2556. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Monday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0085 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 1.0505 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0181. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0085.
The September Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 76.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.69. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 76.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday filling Monday's gap and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Monday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off April's low, the December-2018 high crossing at 0.0948 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0942. Second resistance is the December-2018 high crossing at 0.0948. First support is June's low crossing at 0.0926. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it filled Monday's gap. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1372.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1384.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1372.70.
September silver closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.133 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 15.835 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.625. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 15.835. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.133. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 14.700.
September copper closed lower on Tuesday confirming yesterday's key reversal down and closed below the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.86 signaling that a short-term top has been posted.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 259.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.11 would open the door for additional strength near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 285.35. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.65. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up 4 1/4-cents at 4.26 3/4.
December corn closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 4.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/2.
December wheat closed down 8 3/4-cents at 5.15 1/2.
December wheat closed lower for the third day in a row on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.04 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.40 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.04 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.88 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 12-cents at 4.55.
December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.54 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.36. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.54 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down 7-cents at 5.51.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.72 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.93. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 6.00 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.50 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down 9 3/4-cents at 8.98 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Tuesday following yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87 is the next downside target. If November resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2 is the next upside target.First resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 8.98 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87.
December soybean meal closed down $1.70 at 312.90.
December soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday confirming Monday's key reversal down and close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 315.30. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 326.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. Second resistance is the June 2018 high crossing at 346.10. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.
December soybean oil closed down 35-pts. at 28.24.
December soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.28 at $78.98.
August hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.53 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off March's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.53. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.72. First support is June's low crossing at 73.95. Second support is the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90.
August cattle closed unchanged at 104.10.
August cattle closed unchanged on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 100.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 107.18. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.35 at $138.38.
August Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 141.63 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at 141.63. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.05. First support is June's low crossing at 130.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of its recent gains and filled Monday's gap. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 11.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
September cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 25.81 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.08 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 12.04 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.33 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the May-June trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 68.60 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 64.70 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range.
Thanks again tallpine!