gold and negative real rates
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Started by bear - July 7, 2019, 10:53 a.m.

some experts will tell you that gold does well when we have negative real rates... that is when the return on bonds is lower than the rate of inflation.  

the criticism against gold is that it pays NO interest, no return. 

but i think there will be something fascinating happen over the next couple decades.

look at the 5 yr chart of gold in euros.  it has been going up for 5 years.  why?  because of negative rates in europe.

german 10 yr bonds have a negative return.  if inflation is running 2%,  would you rather own german bonds that pay a negative return?  or own gold that pays no return (and gold has historically kept up with inflation).  

i think over the next several years, if bonds continue to underperform inflation we will continue to see gold hold up. gold (which pays no return) will look better than bonds (which pay no return).  a govt can default on its bonds, but gold does not default.  

By metmike - July 8, 2019, 12:56 p.m.
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Fascinating topic bear, thanks for bringing it here!