crop conditions
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Started by mcfarm - July 7, 2019, 8:33 p.m.

if the current predicted weather holds for the next 2 weeks it will be the absolute worst for this years crop. It was planted wet, has shallow roots, lacks oxygen and nitrogen and a hot dry spell will send the crop indexes down ward in a hurry. In our area we needed a rain desperately this week and had 60 to 90% chances nearly never happened and we have highs around 90 every day. Today we had high drought like winds and you could visually watch the crop deteriorate over the afternoon. Took just a few days for the ground to get rock hard and start to crack open.

By metmike - July 7, 2019, 9:03 p.m.
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You have been in a small dry pocket the last 2 weeks from most of c.IN into wc. OH.

There is another one in n.MO into s.IA.

There is almost no growing seasons on record when there were not dry pockets of 2 weeks much bigger than that. Almost the rest of the cornbelt has continue with an abundance of rain during that period and can go for awhile before the crop really starts to get stressed

However, the forecast as advertised the past week is one in which that should start to happen. Not much rain the next 2 weeks in many places and some decent heat with the high angled sun which will dry the top soils out pretty quickly.

It will be especially hard to get the market as excited as it would be in a typical July with a hot/dry forecast because soils are full of moisture and we just got done finishing trading the biggest planting delay from too much rain weather market in history.

The heat will help speed corn towards maturity, although the market will not look at it that way if rains shut down. We can't afford to lose any more yield and hot/dry during pollination is not the best and is horrible for filling.

The other thing is that the last run of weather guidance weakened the "dome of death" which is probably why we were not able to add to the sharply higher far.

CZ gapped higher by 3c and only filled a penny of that gap, which should stay open if the forecast doesn't turn less bullish overnight.

The CZ high on Friday, was 443.5 I think and the low this evening has been 445.25.

Another observation. On Friday, the maps were already showing the turn to hot/dry and the market dropped pretty hard after the open, despite that. Corn came back to finished unch but beans finished sharply lower and on the lows.

In a typical July, the weather maps we had on Friday might have resulted in double digit gains for the beans and much higher for the corn too.

The speculative interest in buying on hot/dry weather maps has been very subdued so far. 

I see that beans have just made new lows by a couple of ticks and corn is down near the lows. 

Corn has bounced 26c from its lows of last week, so I would feel more comfortable buying here if that wasn't the case(I was actually long a small position earlier but covered when we couldn't go higher early on).

By pll - July 7, 2019, 9:08 p.m.
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MC I think we are about 150 miles west of you in ECILL we had a few places last week that missed rain and other places that we just finished replanting got up to 4 inches for the week and ponds full again. Some of our corn doesnt look to bad (if it was June 10) but some of these soybeans look terrible there is no way they will make 75 % of normal crop with great growing conditions the rest of the year

By metmike - July 7, 2019, 9:24 p.m.
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Thanks pll. It's good to have as many reports as possible.

Here in sw IN, we had 4 rains the previous 4 days, adding up to around an inch in this county, vanderburgh. Like you there are places that had flooding and others that missed much of it.

We had some hot/dry in May here that resulted in corn planting that on one field I saw today, will tassle in the next week and is 6 foot tall. 

Normally, all the corn is pollinating by now here along the KY border. The late planted corn will not pollinate for at least 3 weeks, some of it is barely waist high but growing fast now with ideal conditions.

There are a couple of bean fields that look pretty good but others horrible, mainly because of knowing its July and they are so tiny. They are more like what double crop beans usually look like at this time of year(planted after harvesting the SRW crop).

By metmike - July 7, 2019, 9:32 p.m.
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After looking at the precip maps again and going back the last month, the one state that has received the least amount of rain during that period is IA.

IA is a small state but the highest producer for corn and 2nd in beans and most productive per acre and for the area that it takes up. 

So I think the forecast for the state of IA is going go be a focus going ahead. 

If IA misses rains for 10 days, with some top soils on the dry side right now and heat, its hard to not think that we are going higher.............which, by the way is my opinion based on the current weather forecast.

If the earlier hot/dry maps show up overnight, we "should" have some good buying on Monday.

By wglassfo - July 8, 2019, 3:06 a.m.
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Here in Ontario we have had heat stressed corn, this past week.

Past week was mostly 100 degrees F, every day

We have good soil moisture but seems plant can't take the heat and I suspect shallow roots

Perhaps a dry spell will encourage more deep rooting but in my experience heat stressed corn never grows roots fast enough

We are still in the garden spot with excellent colour and growth but very late. Just imagine what the rest of Ontario looks like.

On July 4 maybe 1/2 of our corn was knee high or better

Depending on hybrid that knee high had rows filled in unless it was a hybrid with upright leaves, which took all of until July 4 to fill the rows.

The other 1/2 is early maturing but 8-12" corn needs until end of October to mature which is a big worry

We got a total of 1" of rain in two rain events, the past 10 days and still had heat stressed corn

Some got nothing and some got 4"

Neither is what folks wanted

Most Ontario corn is late planted in June and 6-10" high and 80-90 day maturity. That corn will struggle to make a crop, even though hope springs eternal

Our very best corn is waist high, which in a normal yr would see 80% of the crop with that much  growth. 8" corn just won't do it this yr

Most Ontario acres got planted to beans in June with maybe 15% planted to corn over entire province, and as I said most is 8-10" tall with some better of course but if it is, it is an eye catcher and very rare to see

We will have a severe shortage of corn in 2020 in Ontario

Our fresh market sweet corn people tell us we have some of the best sweet corn growing in all of Ontario on our farms, which means we did the best we could with conditions as they were. Early planted is in tassel, with planting staggered to match market and harvest capacity.

Big machinery sure paid for planting quickly this yr

We still plan on more tile

I just spent 104,000 on less than 60 acres of heavy clay with some sand hills. A lot was installed at 20' spacing. We will continue to install tile as needed, although 30 ' will catch the most of the new tile jobs left, and some at 40'.  Banker is coming to our farm to have a tile loan set up next week, as the budget won't handle that much expense in one yr. I think he just wants to get out of the office on occasion. I will use variable int rates as I don't fear high int rates in the nest 5 yr or less. Hope to pay it in 3 yrs. and loan will allow any amount of pre payment of principal, we wish as time goes past. Int is not a big item at these low rates

And of course we have no idea of price or yield for our 2019 corn, so a longer time frame for re-payment may be needed, say 5 yrs. but loan will be for 10 yrs, just in case we have an unexpected expense.

That 60 acres will be summer fallow as I try to level the hard clay ridges for next yr and a winter of frost. No income for this yr, on that tiled ground which adds to the cost, but it had to be done and tile people have more work than they can do. Forget a 10 acre wet spot unless you have bigger acreage near by to tile, or can tile in July before wheat harvest. I put some tile in standing corn to get a proper job done. I had corn planted next to our tile project, on the same farm.. Just close your eyes and tile it, where needed.

Bottom line is Ontario 2019 corn is very late and not many acres planted to corn. Normal yr would see at least 60% corn with COC doing very well on some soils., and management consistent with coc. I even plant COC on heavy clay ground and zero beans on my acres.

Not very many do COC like I do in Ontario, but my system works for me. I would rotate crops if the ROi was better, but it isn't in the cards I have been dealt, for me. I try for 200 bu/acre on our soils but so far, 190, whole farm planted acres average seems to be my limit.

By Jim_M - July 8, 2019, 7:39 a.m.
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The argument could be made that we are still trading 91 m acres for corn too.  It’s been talked about plenty on this forum.  We don’t always like the USDA numbers, but it’s what we trade.  Until they say differently, the rest is all noise.

By metmike - July 8, 2019, 10:23 a.m.
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The American model took out all the heat in week 2 overnight(I don't believe it) and the rest of the models added some rain in the 11-15 day period, so the models were less bullish overnight.

July is seasonally a very weak time of year also. When hot/dry does not dominate the forecast, corn and beans go down almost every year.

We may see these maps and the forecast get more bullish again though.

Also, barely filled the bullish gap higher in the corn from last nights open on hot/dry weather models that turned less bullish overnight.  So its not a break away gap. 

However, that served as good buying support because the threat of hot/dry is still out the filling of the gap as an exhaustion gap will not really be confirmed until we stay under the bottom of the gap(Fridays highs).

Crop conditions this afternoon will be important but the extended models are the most important. They are still leaning bullish here. 

By metmike - July 8, 2019, 11:39 p.m.
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Lots of heat in the forecast but models have added too much rain in week 2 for it to turn very bullish.

CZ's high tonight was the bottom of the map higher last night and looking more like the exhaustion, gap and crap negative technical formation mentioned last night. 

We need to take out the additional rains added the last day in week 2 to turn things around. 

Rains in the Western belt and Upper Midwest coming up are also a negative.

By wglassfo - July 9, 2019, 9:51 a.m.
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I don't  know much about how the USA crop usually grows and pollinates, plus the normal rain patterns, in different parts of the USA. The corn belt is so huge it is impossible for me to know

Thus I have to rely on others and separate the wheat from the chaff.

Our production in Ontario is mostly a local market with Mich. corn filling the gap

This yr Mich corn does not look so good, thus we should have strong cash prices for 2020 corn deliveries

Some live stock people are already buying corn for their needs. We are delivering corn to a live stock operation

Our best chance for rain is a week away according to local weather forcast

The temps have cooled down and our corn is growing rapidly. Fingers crossed for some rain, even though we have plenty of soil moisture. All tiles are still running water, that I have checked

July is our normal dry time of yr

Pollination usually waits for a late July/early Aug. rain. If it doesn't rain and corn pollinates in dry conditions then top end of yield is gone. Temps usually moderate by late July "here"

I have seen corn stop growing in some very dry spots in the field for lack of moisture

We are not blessed with rain once a week "here" thus we do not grow 200-250 corn

Water to irrigate is not available on a ROI , although high value crops do irrigate if water is available