Crop condition report July 8, 2019
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Started by metmike - July 8, 2019, 1:02 p.m.

This is anything but a typical year but more often than not, crop ratings peak in June, then slowly go down.

This year, its likely to go the opposite way because of the horrendous start.  This means that the market likely got the worst ratings of the year already(when normally, the market would have seen the best ratings of the year)............unless the weather deteriorates for numerous weeks(rains shut down with heat).

However, with ratings already this low and expectations of continued improvement, signs that things could start going backwards again with this small crop could turn very bullish. 

Expectations for the release at 3pm CDT.

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  20m20 minutes ago              


The Crop Progress poll from Reuters shows that analysts expect 1-point improvements in conditions for #corn & #soybeans

Winter #wheat harvest seen advancing another 15 points to 45% complete.

Corn silking and soybeans blooming will also make their first appearance later today. 



By Jim_M - July 8, 2019, 1:45 p.m.
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It will be interesting for sure.  The market was expecting a 1-2% increase in crop ratings last week and got a 1-2% drop.  So it took a step back before it took a step forward.  If we get an increase, it will only put us where the market thought we would have been last week.  

By metmike - July 8, 2019, 4:07 p.m.
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Corn did improve 1% close to expected but beans deteriorated 1% vs an expected slight improvement.

By Jim_M - July 8, 2019, 4:12 p.m.
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Market got their 1% improvement in corn, but look at how far behind it is.  Yikes.  The "I" states don't look good.

By metmike - July 8, 2019, 4:42 p.m.
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Thanks Jim,

metmike: I don't know if that really shows it that well since there were 11 other years with corn silking this late or even much less on this date.  I think what has happened this year, is that the earlier planting in some places is making this stat look better than it really is.

The heat coming up the next 2 weeks will cause the corn crop to do some catching up on maturity.

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  20m20 minutes ago              


Here are all the years since 1981 in which July 7 silking progress for #corn was 8% or less. That was true in at least 11 of these years, including 2013 and 2008. No report for 2 other years. USDA reported the 2019 progress for July 7 at 8%. Five-year average is 22%.



By Jim_M - July 8, 2019, 5:35 p.m.
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You'll have to explain this phenomenon of "catching up".  Good weather growing is good weather growing.  Your implication is the crop could go from being a month behind, to being 2 weeks behind because of warm weather.  

By metmike - July 9, 2019, 12:53 a.m.
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Corn needs a certain amount of heat units/growing degree days to mature. 

Corn Growth Stages and Growing Degree Units

By metmike - July 9, 2019, 12:55 a.m.
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July 7:#Corn 57% good/exc (+1 on week), 8% silking (22% avg)

#Soybeans 53% good/exc (-1 on wk), 10% blooming (32% avg)

 Winter #wheat 47% harvested (avg 61%, last wk 30%)

 Spring wheat 78% good/exc (+3 on wk), 56% headed (73% avg)



By Jim_M - July 9, 2019, 7:05 a.m.
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Thanks for the article.  I knew that, I just wondered if you knew some voodoo that I wasn’t aware of.  

I guess every day helps, even if it is just a couple, but there is still an awful lot of corn that is going to be pollinating in August.

By wglassfo - July 9, 2019, 9:19 a.m.
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We have slightly over 1/2 of the crop in good to excellent condition, given the latest USDA numbers

I would think that part of the crop silks and pollinates at normal to slightly later than the normal time of yr


What abouit the rest of the crop

A large part by anybodies estimate

This part of the crop will silk and pollinate much later than normal

That does not bode well for a normal crop yield

Even with good weather, you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear

It will take a miracle of a late frost to have much over 155 average yield

If the good soil was water logged then it yields lower

If the fringe [normal dry hills yield better] does this make up for the high yielding soil

I think not

Then add in late maturity and shorter day varieties [ planted in June which will yield less] and we have a short crop

Ray Jenkins has opined that he thinks a better basis will move west over time. This equates with the thinking a short crop is coming

How much less is the question

I think the date of the 1st killing frost will answer many of those questions

In Ontario anybody with unsold corn in a farm bin and mostly with little 2019 planted corn will hold that corn , in the bin, for the 2020 delivery time frame when Ontario runs out of corn

Unfortunately most of my bin corn is sold and I expect to re-fill with 2019 planted corn

We are in the only garden spot of Ontario and we are behind in crop maturity, although the crop has used the heat to make good progress

We are perhaps 80% corn planted in our little circle of crops, we will have the most available corn for sale

With Ohio offering over 5.00 cash now [at least late last week] for corn this should tell us some thing.

Is Ohio storing old crop corn on farm for sale in 2020???

Basis is one of the best indicators of end user demand

By Jim_M - July 9, 2019, 12:39 p.m.
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The stats validate what I have been seeing.  What corn crop that is growing is behind and then there is the rest of the crop which is either never going to make it, or have a horrible yield.  

By metmike - July 9, 2019, 2:18 p.m.
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I figured you knew that but many others that are not farming and market savvy don't.

By cutworm - July 9, 2019, 3:36 p.m.
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Jim this is a calculator for corn GDD's

My corn planted on June 4th 110 day corn is going to need above average GDD's and no drought to Black layer before the first freeze, and should silk the first week of Aug.( not a good time to silk hot dry)

By Jim_M - July 9, 2019, 3:47 p.m.
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Pretty cool!  Thanks for sharing.

By metmike - July 9, 2019, 4:36 p.m.
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Great link/site cutworm!!

The big heat over the next 2 weeks will be piling up some massive heat units. One can guess that this was part of why corn was down so much today.

Heat right now, as long as rains don't stop is a good thing but one we hit pollination, it will be bad.

Especially bad if we have a hot August because widespread heat fill with rapid maturation, though making the crop less vulnerable to an early frost, will reduce  the amount of time that the plant has to fill kernels........and as a result, they don't get as plump.

Warm muggy nights also increase plant respiration which uses up some of the sugars produced during the day with photosynthesis(increasing CO2 reduces this and also makes plants more heat tolerant and water efficient-the stomata don't need to open as wide)

Major, long lived heat fill can take 30 bushels/acre off the yield at a specific location vs the same situation with temperatures below average after pollination.