precious metals and the 30 yr cycle
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Started by bear - July 9, 2019, 3:29 p.m.

i am conflicted.  yes i am long metals, ... but...

the 30 yr cycle has me worried.  silver hit lows in the early 90's .  the 30 yr cycle would put a new low for silver somewhere around 2021 or 2022.   this would corelate with a recession, and a drop in base metals in general.  

gold looks like it broke out to the upside, but many other metals have not.  

copper, and freeport (fcx) both look like they are struggling.  

precious metals are severely underpriced,  but can go lower if the world economy takes down the commodity complex.  

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By metmike - July 9, 2019, 4:38 p.m.
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Thanks for sharing your insight bear...........keep it coming. I don't know diddly about the metals markets. 

By wglassfo - July 10, 2019, 3:04 a.m.
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JMHO for what it worth

Some serious investors are heavily invested into gold

They are in the physical gold not paper speculation

And I will tell you why paper gold is a fools game

No matter how many contracts of paper are bought long, the banks simply create a paper contract out of thin air and take the opposite side

It costs them nothing to create a paper contract

You on the other side put up real money

You may be in and out with a profit

The banks operate on the bulk of contracts, and can wait forever, with no skin in the game, either long or short as opposed to the majority of buying or selling.

We know the market goess up and down

You will eventually close your position

The bank never closes with out a profit

You have a good chance to lose what with margin etc.

The banks have this simple equation refined much better than I can explain, so take the risk with the idea the market is rigged against you or at least the majority of players


Remember they create from thin air with no margin or monetary risk, so long as the market goes up and down

If you wish you need to be in physical gold

You may wait multiple yrs but eventually we all know the system of our fiat will implode

What will your paper do if there is no buyer or seller, especially if the other side is a loser. You know: Blood from a stone?? 

Physical is a tangible asset

In times of extreme inflation when fiat is worthless, your physical will be worth many multiples of value

In terms of inflation adjusted value, gold is a bargain even at these prices. Buy and hold

Gold is a many generation store of value. If the system implodes your gold will buy when blood is running in the street

The market will do the most harm to the most people is as true today as it was when 1st uttered by who ever made the comment

If you want to trade paper contracts this is not what you want

I am just saying, some day we will all wish we had a store of physical gold, and what we may have will look small, but who has 20/20 for sight

Some folks with liquid assets, looking for a home to invest, have as much as 25% of their portfolio in physical gold

History proves austerity to live within the gov't revenues or a balanced budget has long gone, never to return. Social obligations and pandering for the vote will garante more money printing to pay the bills

At some time we simply have more fiat than the world can absorb. That will be the start of the down hill slide and no way the gov't can simply call a halt

After all, every politician soon learns the number one job is to get re-elected. You don't get re-elected by cutting old age benefits in 1/2 or more plus all the other gravy train expenses

This is a simple lesson of mathematics any grade school student should be able to grasp. But our elected officials will never do anything that risks his/her chances of re-election even if it means the end of our life style as we know it

Anybody with a lick of sense knows inflation is coming

Tangible assets will be in demand,

What we don't know is the time frame or the multiples of increased value

In a free market where you have a given amount of shares in Co. X, supply and demand decides the price

No such thing with gold when the banks simply print  more or sell/ buy back  shares if you wish to look at it that way, and get a sense of the gold market

Bankers hate gold for good reason. What if everybody wants to buy and nobody will sell. That is what the banks fear most

China and other countries buying physical gold and less treasury bills adds to the bankers problem

When I say "banks" I am talking the few large western banks world wide

Inflation adjusted gold is very under priced, but can you stay liquid in an irrational price movement and still come out the other side with all your initial investment

 Gold could easily drop 100.00/oz but my bought and paid for physical gold and silver will be just fine


By Richard - July 10, 2019, 11:06 a.m.
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This is the way I see it. Gold made the low for the year already. We are now in an up move.

We are going to have a war with Iran and Gold and silver will make a HIGH in 2020 and then both will come back down going into a low around early 2022. From that low they will then start a last move up.

This is how it is. Targets going into 2020 Gold - $3,600 Silver - $60