KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 11, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 226K; previous 221K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1686000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. June CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.8%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.0%; previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 331.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1029.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 276.6K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2390B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)(previous +89B)
12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
12:00 PM ET. June Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. June Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, July 12, 2019
8:30 AM ET. June PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.2%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Wednesday over the potential for a cut in interest rates later this month as the market posted a new contract high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above April's high crossing at 7910.75 opens the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7719.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7949.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7719.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7580.44.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2945.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3004.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2945.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2894.51.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday spiking to a new all-time high. However, profit taking ahead of the close tempered early session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling a potential pause or downturn is possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,576.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally above last-October's high crossing at 26,951.81 into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26,983.45. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,750.54. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,576.93.
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September T-bonds closed down 14/32's at 154-21.
September T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Friday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Friday's high, June's low crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 158-09 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 157-02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 158-09. First support is June's low crossing at 152-27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.05.
September T-notes closed up 45-pts. At 127.140.
September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 126.155 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 130.010 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the reaction low crossing at 126.155. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.062.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off June's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the May 20th reaction high crossing at 64.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 60.53. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 64.03. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.62. Second support is June's low crossing at 50.79.
August heating oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 202.50. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.98 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74.
August unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday following a bullish API inventory report released on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 203.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 201.14. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 203.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 185.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 183.23.
August Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.470 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.316 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.470. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.653. First support is July's low crossing at 2.217. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.134.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 97.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at crossing at 97.26. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.39. Second support is June's lowcrossing at 95.36.
The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support June's low crossing at 112.57. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.
The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2668 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2668. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2803. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2480. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0107 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0210 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0112. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0107.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 76.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.81. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 76.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.15.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidate some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 0.0917 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0935. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0942. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0912.
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August gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1390.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1390.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1336.60.
September silver closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 15.835 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.941 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.625. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 15.835. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.941. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 14.700.
September copper closed sharply higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 275.70 would open the door for additional strength near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 259.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 275.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 285.35. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.65. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up 1 1/4-cent at 4.38 1/2.
December corn closed higher on Wednesday as traders position themselves ahead of Thursday's WASDE report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off last-Friday's high, the May 28th gap crossing at 4.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24 3/4. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 4.20.
December wheat closed up 3/4-cents at 5.16 1/4.
December wheat closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.10 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.10 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.88 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.62 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed high on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.85 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.36. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.52 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 1-cent at 5.42.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.63 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.63 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.82. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.38 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up 7 1/2-cents at 9.11 3/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.17 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.88 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 9.34 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.90 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.88 1/4.
December soybean meal closed up $1.10 at 317.00.
December soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off June's high, the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. Second resistance is the June 2018 high crossing at 346.10. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.
December soybean oil closed up 7-pts. at 28.56.
December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 27.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is June's low crossing at crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $2.65 at $81.73.
August hogs closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.04 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.93 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 75.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 85.93. Second resistance is the reaction crossing at 95.52. First support is June's low crossing at 73.95. Second support is the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90.
August cattle closed down $0.50 at 107.63.
August cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 109.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 109.93. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at 119.95. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.53 at $142.35.
August Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 143.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is June's low crossing at 130.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extends Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, October 2018 high crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.
September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 26.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 12.04 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.33 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Tuesday's downside breakout of the May-June trading range, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.03 would confirm that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Hot is the word but how much rain and where will the remnants of Barry go?
USDA report out at 11am Thursday and EIA Natural Gas storage report comes out at 9:30am.