Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:37 a.m.

Happy July 11th!   Do something to set off fantastic figurative fireworks in somebody's life today!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.   

We are now trading "Rain makes Grain"(hot and dry are bullish) the advertised changes continue as rains dry some places.. and a heat ridge becomes a major player for the rest of July. Where it's located is the key to how bullish the weather might get.

Heat is also bullish for natural gas.

Run to run model changes on the location of the heat ridge and especially the rains for both week's  1 and 2 have been enormousthe last day.

Barry still expected to reach a minimal hurricane...watching the remnants forecasts.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     



 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:38 a.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.

Temporary, slight cooling Midwest to Northeast.


By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:40 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Very warm to mostly HOT in much of the country.  Some cooling under Barry's remnants.

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:40 a.m.
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Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below

Above average red colors in most of the country....... as we approach the hottest time of year seasonally.......except under some temporary Barry cooling.

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:43 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


Watching the remnants of far north will they go next week is a huge question. The European model (operational) is still the farthest north, latest  to Indianapolis next week........other  models still a bit farther south.

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:45 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

 Dome of upper level high pressure will suppress rains, as they shift to the northern/nw belt, around the periphery of the dome. 

KEY FEATURE: Remnants of potential minimal hurricane Barry! How far north will they go next week???

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:46 a.m.
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Risk of excessive rains.

Excessive rains likely from remnants of Barry increasing and shifting northward over the weekend into early next week. Confined to the Gulf Coast the next day.

   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:49 a.m.
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Slight risk to mostly marginal risk of severe storms, mainly a wind threat continues the next several days in several locations but not widespread. This will shift to the northern tier later this week, with the jet stream shoved up there by the building heat ridge.

Possible severe storms or a tornado from Barry around the w.Gulf Coast late the next 2 days.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:49 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

Drier air surges southward in the Cornbelt and Northeast today.   ......with humidity levels dropping. 

Only to have the remnants of Barry bring tropical moisture northward into early/middle of next week.

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:53 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

Much of Iowa has dried out a bit!

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:55 a.m.
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Currently, there is 0%  of the  main Cornbelt/Midwest with drought.........but it's been very dry along the Canadian border. There is drought in the Southeast. 

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market has turned into a rain makes grain market(hot/dry has turned bullish), though there are still a few more beans that need to be planted in early July.


       Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - July 11, 2019, 11:59 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Friday: Upper level trough/low off the West Coast deeper and farther the downstream heat ridge backs up farther west and allows for more troughing and cooler weather Upper Midwest to East.

Saturday:  Deep upper level trough off the West Coast. Big heat ridge downstream. Will the heat ridge dominate the south and be elongated from west to east? With upper level troughing and a fast, progressive flow across the north?

Sunday: Canadian model is strongest with heat ridge in the south and on numerous members goes pretty far east with it.

Monday: Heat ridge weaker in the East, still pretty strong south, downstream fromm the significant upper level trough along the West Coast.

Tuesday: Upper level trough a bit weaker off the West Coast but the key to the 2nd half of July is based on the position of the downstream heat ridge. Somewhere between the Southwest US to S.Plains and potentially  points eastward. The farther west it stays, the cooler it is in the Midwest/East, the farther east, the hotter those places get, especially the southern tier.

Wednesday: Where will the heat ridge be at the end of 2 weeks?

Thursday: Heat ridge in the southern half of the country looking extremely impressive on half of the Canadian model solutions at the end of week 2. Less troughing in the East on this model today and strong zonal jet stream along the northern tier slightly farther north today vs its warmer today.

Friday: Very impressive heat ridge on just over  half the members again overnight.

Saturday: Using the just updated 12z run for this update. WOW! Look at the deep cut off low along the coast of southwest Canada! The magnitude of this feature is MUCH greater than yesterday and with almost universal

Sunday: 12z model, latest one again today. Very deep upper level trough off the West Coast, centered off the sw Coast of Canada with a heat ridge/dome downstream. A minority of members 1/3rd have the idea of an upper level trough in the Northeast with some cooling there. The Dome is very impressive in the central US.  Good trough/ridge couplet in this amplifying pattern.

Monday: Deep trough off the West Coast teleconnects well with its counterpart in the downstream couplet of a major heat ridge in the central part of the county. Favored locations of the rain suppressing dome are in the c/s Plains eastward. This model is the most bullish.

Tuesday: 12z run today. Still the deep trough off the West Coast and impressive downstream heat ridge. Where will it be at the end of 2 weeks? This model has it a bit farther west today with an upper level trough and cooling in the Northeast. Wide spread and disagreement on the location of this dome, anywhere from the S.Rockies to the Upper Midwest and even East on a couple of solutions.

Wednesday: Heat ridge slightly farther west, as well as some upper troughing in the Northeast slightly farther west on this model mean for today but its still the same trough west, downstream heat ridge pattern. Where will the most intense heat be and how much rains are very undetermined/uncertain.

Thursday: Big heat ridge most of the country. Strong zonal get over the top.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 25, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 12:12 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Monday: Upper level heat ridge the farthest west on this model........possibly in the Rockies. Other models are farther east. This model backs the heat up farther west and allows some cool air to push into the East........on some solutions. It is also fairly dry, with some solutions shutting down the rains.............hard to do with very wet soils, so that remains to be seen.

Tuesday: Upper level heat ridge somewhere and least likely in the Northeast, which may be on the cool side.  This pattern is usually a very dry one but with wet soils, that may not be the case this time(just not excessive rains).

Wednesday: Heat ridge location around the Rockies. Maybe troughing in the Northeast. Heat would back out west and cooling farther east with this type of solution.

Thursday: Heat ridge much farther west on this model with cooling in the East.

Friday: Heat ridge shifts farther southwest and upper level trough is getting carved out in the Upper Midwest to Northeast with some cooling.

Saturday: More of a west to east heat ridge across the south today with upper level troughing north.

Sunday: This model is stronger with the flow across the northern tier and has more troughing in the East and is cooler in the middle.

Monday: Strong heat ridge from West to S.Plains.

Tuesday: Slim pickins on this product today.  Location of the heat ridge will determine how bullish or bearish the 2nd half of July weather is.

Wednesday: Huge heat ridge. Where will it be during the 2nd half of July!

Thursday: This model prefers the heat ridge in the West, with troughing and cooler downstream at the end of 2 weeks.

Friday: Some GFS ensembles have the huge heat ridge farther east..........most don't.

Saturday: The potential for the upper level low to be in southwest Canada, shifts the heat ridges position downstream to be farther east than recent GFS solutions(which have had it the farther west and some cooling potential in the East)  but this model has a huge spread on whether there will be a ridge or trough in sw Canada.

Sunday: Deep trough Pacific NW to sw Canada to Gulf of Alaska, massive heat ridge downstream over much of the US. Good trough/ridge couplet in this amplifying pattern.

Monday: Deep trough/cut off low far sw Canada with a downstream heat ridge.......extremely impressive. This was the 0z model.  The last run of the US model took out all this heat and the other models added rains in week 2 which has taken out much of the bullish gusto from Sunday evening.

Tuesday: Where will the HUGE heat ridge be at the end of 2 weeks?

Wednesday: Massive heat ridge in week 2. Best location is the middle of the country on this model but uncertain.

Thursday: Massive heat ridge. Will it back up towards the west a bit late in week 2?

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 12:14 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.

Last Thursday: Positive anomaly from Alaska, extending to the N.Rockies/Plains Weak negative anomaly in the Southeast. This would favor the warmth farther west but doesn't agree with other models. 

Friday: No extreme anomalies.

Saturday: No major anomalies, and slightly higher values in the east, suggesting

less potential cooling than yesterday. Makings of a potential, big heat ridge across the southern half of the country. 

Sunday: Slightly positive anomalies, except weaker in the Great Lakes which favor a cool Midwest. 

Monday: Biggest positive anomaly is in N.Canada.

Tuesday:  Modest positive anomaly across much of the country from west to east. Potential for a heat ridge to build in under this environment. Where will it be located? Rather than an amplified south to north heat ridge, this favors an elongated west to east heat ridge, especially in the south. 

Wednesday: Slight positive anomaly centered Pacific Northwest favors more heat west than east.

Thursday: This is just the average of the individual ensembles from above, so it shows the positive anomaly in the Northwest(with heat), with a weak negative anomaly in the Southeast and cooler weather vs average in the middle of the country. 

Friday: Positive anomaly gone in the West, leaving room for a more zonal flow and potential for heat to just move from west to east across the country but no big positive anomaly anywhere.

Saturday:  Negative anomaly along the sw Canadian coast, slight positive in a large area downstream..........where the heat ridge will be. 

Sunday: Negative anomaly Pacific NW to Southwest Canada connects with downstream heat ridge positive anomaly to the east with amplified pattern. 

Monday: Still the same negative anomaly in far sw Canada/Pacific nw with downstream heat ridge and positive anomaly in the center of the country. The last 6z US model obliterated the heat ridge in week 2 but appears to have been an outlier. 

Tuesday: Still the negative anomaly centered off the sw Coast of Canada with the downstream positive anomaly centered in the Upper Midwest associated with the huge heat ridge.

Wednesday: Same trough/negative anomaly West, huge ridge/positive anomaly east couplet. Ensures heat over most of the country.

Thursday: Anomalies not as strong but heat ridge dominates. Positive anomaly center  is a bit farther west today.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 11, 2019, 12:15 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Tuesday: Potential for rains to shut down, especially in the southern half after day 10. Where will the heat ridge set up? I won't try to guess the NWS outlook for this afternoon because there is some key shifting in features late in the period that can turn this from bearish to bullish in a flash.

Wednesday: Heat more favored west, cooler to the east. Rains may not be as abundant as recently.

Thursday: GFS products strongly suggest hot West and cooler to the east again....but the overall pattern and model solutions don't feature much cool air...with heat in the West AND the South. Wet soils and potential northwest flow argue for above rains(not much above) but this pattern, historically leads to gradual  drying.

Friday: Rains should be drying up.  Big heat ridge in much of the country, location of it and heat being watched.

Saturday: Confidence continues to increase that we will be entering a mostly dry period for much of the Midwest, starting next week. How long will it last?  There will be some intense heat under a heat ridge but the location of that is uncertain.

Sunday: Increasing magnitude of the trough off the NW coast and downstream heat ridge couplet assures us of  major heat spreading across most of the country. A dome of this strength is likely to defeat rain making underneath it, regardless of wet soils.  Rains could still take place along the periphery/top of the heat ridge over the northern parts of the country.

Monday: Tons of heat for sure and dry in the 6-10 day, probably the 8-14 day(northern US will have rains over the top of the heat ridge) but the market has traded this hot/dry forecast for several days and dialed it in now. The question long will it last and will it become LESS hot/dry with time? The overnight models were already adding more rain in the 8-14 day period.

Tuesday: Widespread heat! How much rain? A good case can be made for rains to become more scarce with this type of pattern.

Wednesday: Widespread heat a given! How much rain is a huge question mark. This type of pattern can go either way, including a good case for rains to dry up. The heat will be drying soils out too.

Thursday: Widespread heat for sure again! How much rain and remnants of Barry early in the period are the big questions marks.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
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Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - July 11, 2019, 12:16 p.m.
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By metmike - July 11, 2019, 12:16 p.m.
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Previous discussion.                                                                                                          

                Re: Re: Re: Sunday Weather            


      By Jim_M - July 6, 2019, 8:11 a.m.            

            Has the switch filled?  Have we gone from cool and wet, to hot and dry?  Might as well throw the kitchen sink at the crop. 

 Stay tuned!  Same Bat station, same Bat channel!  


                                 Re: Re: Weather Saturday            


                By metmike - July 6, 2019, 1:53 p.m.            



                        Re: Re: Re: Weather Saturday            


                By Jim_M - July 6, 2019, 4:10 p.m.            






                Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By wxgrant - July 9, 2019, 10:29 p.m.            


WOW! WPC Jumping all in to the 12Z operational run of the EURO. I hate looking a one run like this. The ensembles still show heavy rain but don't bring it as far north as the operational EURO. The AM WPC 7 day QPF for my DMA was 0.10" to 0.50". Now it's 1.50" to 3.00". GFS, GEFS, GDPS, CMCE, and EPS all much drier than the 12Z Euro this far north. I guess the 12Z EURO could be right but when it is such an outlier why weight it so heavily? 


                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By metmike - July 9, 2019, 11:39 p.m.            


I see what you mean Grant. 

The 0z European model was already the farthest north and just added to it at 12z. The 1" rain band gets almost to Chicago!

It's ensembles bring the 1" QPF to the Ohio River, farther north than the 0z run, with the Canadian ensembles close to that but the GFS ensembles are way farther south by something like 250 miles.



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By metmike - July 10, 2019, 1:25 a.m.            


The 0z US models have shifted much farther north with the rain shield from the tropical system. 

More like the ensembles of the other models but not as far north as the Euro operational.

This system is going to move slow so several inches of rain with the tropical moisture associated with it.

I see how important it is for your viewing area Grant. A slight shift in the track and you go from no rain to 3 inches of rain or vice versa. Same thing here in sw. IN.



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By metmike - July 10, 2019, 6:38 a.m.            


0z euro takes a well defined, 200? Mile wide band of heavy rain even further to the left and north now......wesr of St. Louis! To Chi then curving right to MI.

The outlier continues to go in th outliers direction of even more extreme from previous solutions but the others models are going in that direction, so the outlier has some credibility.

I am wondering if this is bearish or bullish soybeans right now that would be the most adversely effected by excessive rains. Since this is not going to part of a long lived pattern, more just a day or 2 of heavy rain....then gone...I’ll say more bearish. 

For sure more bearish corn