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Started by bear - May 12, 2018, 3:03 p.m.

the yield curve is still not widening.    this probably means that the economy will not show stronger growth next year than what we have this year.    if the economy were to ramp up,  then you would have seen the curve widening already. 

so some commodity prices may pick up a bit more,  but still with modest growth.  

the curve is also not inverted,  so we should not see any big crash/recession next year.  

the yield curve in England is inverted on the long end, (but not on the short end).   if short rates in England go up a bit more,  and the long end drops,  we will see the world wide recession start in England.  maybe by 2020. 

Re: economy
By metmike - May 12, 2018, 4:41 p.m.
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Thanks for bringing up an outstanding topic bear:

How an Inverted Yield Curve Predicts a Recession

What an Inverted Yield Curve Means

"An inverted yield curve means that investors have little confidence in the economy. They would prefer to buy a 10-year Treasury note and tie up their money for ten years even though they receive a lower yield. That makes no logical sense. Investors typically expect a higher return on a long-term investment.

An inverted yield curve means investors believe they will make more by holding onto the longer-term bond than if they bought a short-term Treasury bill. That's because they'd just have to turn around and reinvest that money in another bill. If they believe a recession is coming, they expect the value of the short-term bills to plummet sometime in the next year. That's because the Federal Reserve usually lowers the fed funds rate when economic growth slows."