1st estimate Q2:19 GDP @ better that expected 2.1
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Started by TimNew - July 26, 2019, 9:38 a.m.
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By pj - July 26, 2019, 7:09 p.m.
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National Debt going to go up 4.1 Trillion. Yes, it's based on projections, but does anyone really believe it won't go up that much? https://tinyurl.com/y3uvsker

By TimNew - July 26, 2019, 7:59 p.m.
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The link says Trump will add 4+ trillion to the current 22 trillion debt. In that unlikely event, and I stress unlikely, it will pale in comparison to the roughly 10+ trillion that Obama added.

So far, these annual trillion plus forecasts have not come to be. We added a staggering 8 billion last month for a total of 747B fiscal YTD. We have 3 months left in the fiscal year and September often shows a surplus. Last year, 119 billion. 

Anyway,  it's amusing that we're hearing angst over the 2.1% GDP.  In the last admin, 2.1 was cause for celebration, Ya know the "magic wand/new reality" guys. but I digress.

Facts are/is..   The Trade war is costing us plenty. In spite of that, with the increase in employment and earnings, consumer spending far exceeded the wildest projections of the fed and all the assorted pundits offsetting somewhat dismal #'s in other areas.   And we had a pleasant surprise yesterday in Durable Goods with a huge surprise in Core Capital. Meanwhile,  Q2 corporate earnings are mostly exceeding expectations and we have several million more job openings than we have unemployed.

https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=498786&cust=us&year=2019&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

So, let's hold off on the ecofuneral for now  :-)





By pj - July 27, 2019, 12:02 p.m.
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Didn't say anything about about "ecofuneral".  Just seems pretty clear that once again, goosing the economy by cutting taxes and increasing spending is (not surprisingly) running up the "national credit card". And, I wonder about all the "conservatives" that not that long ago were screaming about the national debt... seems they've all developed laryngitis.

BTW I don't think it's fair to compare the deficits under Obama, who inherited the worst recession in 75 years with largely recovered economy that Trump inherited.


By TimNew - July 27, 2019, 1:10 p.m.
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I won't spend much time on it,  But Obama's 800 billion stimulus added to an already bloated budget accomplished nearly nothing and the deficit of his last year was greater than any president's before him.  He had 4 years of trillion + deficits.  And to this day I maintain that had he done nothing, the recovery would have been more robust.

I am not happy about the current budget numbers, and I blame the spending.  Revenue is actually up nicely so the tax cut has little/nothing, perhaps less than nothing to do with it.  but I take exception to the doomsday predictions I keep hearing. Especially when they come from people who cheered on Obama. (Note: Not including you in that group).


By mcfarm - July 27, 2019, 2:40 p.m.
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wow, seem to remember quarter after quarter under a previous President showing worse than projected numbers...quarter after quarter....ad now we have better than expected, quarter after quarter. Where are you Brian Williams and Company to report

By joj - July 27, 2019, 3:12 p.m.
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By mcfarm - July 27, 2019, 4:15 p.m.
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are they after revisions....seems there were multiple revisions when the earlier ones were .....say we say over hyped


as far as the Trump and Obama economys look a lot alike...wow, what a stretch there. Might want to look around at the other numbers around and ask the minorities and women who are not employed in record numbers because we all learned years ago "those jobs ain't coming back"

By TimNew - July 27, 2019, 8:51 p.m.
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It's so cute when libs try to compare Obama's "Economy" to Trump's. Thanks Sam,for acknowledging that Trump'seconomy is as good as Obama's...  I know that was a stretch for you.   But actually, if you look at real numbers,  Obama's were somewhat lacking. Obama had some great quarters to be sure, but he had several quarters where GDP was negative.  Trump has not seen that. And so far, it appears he won't.   And let's not get into job growth, particuarly in MFG. Ya know, where"Those jobs are not coming back" without a magic wand.  I'll get a kick out o that for just about ever..  


https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/