Currency devaluation
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Started by wglassfo - July 31, 2019, 10:59 a.m.

I read a lot about currency devaluation and of course the bankers are the suspects in this devious plan to cause havoc in our society

I am not a currency expert but I did some rough math

My 1st combine cost 22,000.00 brand new in the early 1970 Today that combine might cost 5000,000.00 plus

My 1st truck bought brand new in 1968 cost 3250.00 Today my grandson paid almost 60,000.00 for a truck with every option available

My 1st farm cost 52,000.00 in 1967

Today it might be worth 500,000.00 for the bare land. Everything else was added after purchase

All of this sounds lke an astronomical increase in price

But is that not approx a 2.5 % increase in value for the number of yrs

I say approx because all is not exactly equal. I purchased a used 1 yr old truck with 18,000 on the odometer for 28,000 and not having every option but had what I wanted. Cars cab be bought for approx. 20,000.00

That 2.5 % is the target for inflation the Fed says it wants

I don't see this currency devaluation as anything serious unless one wants zero inflation

So why do some want us to believe the sky is falling

I must admit I get sticker shock every time I look at a big ticket item, but is any of this a concern

All prices are quoted in CAD and somebody should check my math as I did it in my head as I posted

What I am saying is currecy manipulation and devaluation is mostly a myth and not bad for our ecconmy

Much better than if prices went down along with wages as there would be less corrrelation in times of uncertaibty and possible higher unemployment as manufacturing and other production might worry about who has the money to buy my production at profitable margins. Higher prices seem to be more optomistic for production and employment.

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By bear - July 31, 2019, 11:34 a.m.
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your numbers are probably pretty accurate.  but over the long trend, this is what i see...

before we had a fed & fiat currency, the price of a new car came down (rather than going up), while the quality got better,  and wages went up.

during the 1800's, up to the late 1920's,  wages went up , but prices did not (expect for during wartime),  wages outpaced inflation for over 100 yrs.  since we scrapped the last of the gold standard (1971), wages have Not outpaced inflation.  according to some sources, the wages of most  of society have underperformed inflation (since the early 70's).

a  currency losing a little value, short term, does not really hurt us.  it may give us a short term trade advantage. but,... a currency losing too much value, long term, is bad for the nation. 

example, argentina was the 5th largest economy in the world in 1901.  but after 100 years of too much socialism, and debasing its currency,  it is now number 60.   that happened as a long term trend.  

sorry you cannot really trade on it short term.  

i don't want to see that happen to my country, and my grandkids will be far worse off years from now. 

sometimes trading/investing is about recognizing if something is far too cheap when judged against the long term trend.  i think here, gold and silver are far too cheap.  (but they may stay far too cheap for 10 years). 

the person who was best at judging this long term trend was richard russell.  he died a couple years ago.  he was famous for his dow theory letters.