Re: Weather
By mcfarm - May 15, 2018, 10:54 a.m.
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have to tell you metmike if that forecast turns out like last couple of weeks it ain't going to rain. We have had nothing but 40-50-60-70-% chances nearly every day and even that "likely" thing several times and have gotten not a drop. Starting to really show as with those high chances nobody was willing to sock the seed 3 inches deep looking for moisture. Well as it turns out now that seed is laying in dry dirt and acre after acre will not germinate without help

Re: Re: Weather
By metmike - May 15, 2018, 11:25 a.m.
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I agree mcfarm,

These rainfall totals keep getting less and less with each forecast. We went from having excessive rains in many places to excessive in a few spots but lots of rain everywhere to maybe completely missing the rains in some places.

7 day total below:

By metmike - May 15, 2018, 3:05 p.m.
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Severe storm risk the next few days....mainly in the Plains......except this

afternoon a moderate risk in the Northeast:


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Coniglio
Issued: 15/1613Z
Valid: 15/1630Z - 16/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Moderate Risk        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Picca
Issued: 15/1720Z
Valid: 16/1200Z - 17/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          1730 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Kerr
Issued: 15/0727Z
Valid: 17/1200Z - 18/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook                 
                Forecaster: Kerr
Issued: 15/0856Z
Valid: 18/1200Z - 22/1200Z
          Note: A severe weather area          depicted in the Day 4-8 period          indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms          (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe th
By metmike - May 15, 2018, 3:10 p.m.
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Lastest National Radar Loop:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

This is the area getting clobbered:

Northeast sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST   PA...FAR NORTHERN NJ...SOUTHERN NY...NORTHWEST CT...SOUTHWEST MA...    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HIGH   PLAINS...    ...SUMMARY...   Widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and scattered large hail   is expected across parts of the Northeast States this afternoon into   early evening.    ...Northeast States...   Convective evolution will be tied to an MCV and small convective   cluster currently ongoing near the OH/PA border. Robust diabatic   heating is underway ahead of this feature with trailing outflow from   a lead convective cluster currently crossing the Hudson Valley. 12Z   Pittsburgh sounding sampled a favorable environment for   destabilization with an EML yielding steep mid-level lapse rates.   Warm-sector buoyancy of 1000-2000 J/kg will become common by peak   heating. This sounding also sampled the southern periphery of strong   700-500 mb winds. As the OH/PA cluster evolves east and becomes   surface-based, convection will organize into a fast-moving QLCS with   embedded bowing structures given the strong mid-level westerlies   nearly orthogonal to the line. Widespread strong to scattered severe   wind gusts appear likely which may yield a derecho, and thus   damaging wind coverage probabilities have been increased this   outlook. A few cells should form ahead of the developing QLCS, most   likely across parts of southern NY/Hudson Valley vicinity into   western New England. Supercell wind profiles will support a tornado   and large hail risk maximized across this region, with this activity   becoming absorbed within the broader QLCS. The severe threat will   quickly wane near the Atlantic Coast once the QLCS impinges on the   stable marine layer.
By metmike - May 15, 2018, 3:25 p.m.
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NWS week 2 forecast still very warm but above normal rains:

8 to 14 Day Outlooks
Valid: May 23 to 29, 2018
Updated: 15 May 2018
Click below for information about how to read 8-14 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
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Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

By mikempt - May 15, 2018, 3:26 p.m.
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Tornado watch here in Valley Forge Pa. The air is like soup