KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, August 13, 2019 

6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism\

                       Small Business Idx (expected 102.7; previous 103.3)

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.4%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.3%)

8:30 AM ET. July CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.3%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.6%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.1%)

8:30 AM ET. July Real Earnings

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)

9:30 AM ET. SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting

11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.4M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.1M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.2M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""

The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Monday due to concerns over the trade war between the U.S. and China. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 7808.73 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7738.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7808.73. First support isthe 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7237.04. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 7107.06. 

The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 2961.48 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2737.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 2940.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2961.48. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 2774.78. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.  

The Dow closed sharply lower on Monday building on the previous week’s decline on lingering worries over U.S.-China trade tensions and continued unrest in Hong Kong. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,570.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,570.98. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,786.28. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,362.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 25,034.74.

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September T-bonds closed up 2-00/32's at 163-09.

September T-bonds closed sharply higher on Monday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 167-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 163-31. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 167-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 159-23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-05.          

September T-notes closed up 195-pts. At 130.095.

September T-notes closed sharply higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, weekly resistance crossing at 132.016 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.096 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 130.275. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 132.016. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.064. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.096.        

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

September crude oil closed higher on Monday due to technically related short covering. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.65. Second resistance is the late-July high crossing at 58.82. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 50.52. Second support isthe 75% retracement level of the 2018/2019 rally crossing at 49.99. 

September heating oil closed higher on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 184.93. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at  188.05. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 174.50. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 165.77. 

September unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If September extends the decline off July's high, the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 172.63. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.10. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 161.11. Second support is the January-2019 low crossing at 156.05.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.267 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 1.909 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.184. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.267. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 2.029. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.909.        

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at 97.65. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 98.70. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 96.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.81.

The September Euro closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.00 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 112.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.00. First support is August's low crossing at 110.65. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.

The September British Pound closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2309 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2152. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2309. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  

The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0199 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0354. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0064. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 1.0024.

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.02. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.81. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 75.08. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 74.68.   

The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 0.0960. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing 0.0940. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934.  

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October gold closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1452.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1525.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1473.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1452.00.

September silver closed higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.416 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.467 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 17.260. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 17.416. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.467. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.667.          

September copper closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.57 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 252.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.57. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.30. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 253.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 252.64.  

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December Corn closed down 25-cents at 9.92 3/4. 

December corn closed limit down on Monday following today's bearish WASDE report. The USDA dropped its planted acre estimates by 1.7 million acres from July, now at 90.000 million acres. But trade estimates were well below that tally, with an average guess of 87.656 million acres. USDA also lowered its harvested acreage estimates from 83.600 million acres in July down to 82.000 million acres. The USDA estimated total U.S. corn production of 13.875 billion bushels, with average yields totaling 166.0 bushels per acre. That was above trade estimates of 13.146 billion bushels on average yields of 164.9 bpa. Ending corn stocks rose to 2.181 billion bushels down only 179 million bushels from their estimate of latest estimate for the 2018/2019 corn crop estimate.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 3.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.21 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.21 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.36 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 3.91. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 3.78.  

December wheat closed down 24 1/2-cents at 4.77. 

December wheat closed sharply lower on Monday following a bearish USDA WASDE report. The USDA estimated all U.S. wheat production at 1.980-billion-bushel production, up from 1.921 billion bushels in July. The upward revision was fueled by gains in hard red winter wheat, white winter wheat and spring wheat production. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.20 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.73 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.58 1/2.     

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 24 1/2-cents at 4.09.

December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.82 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.70 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 4.04 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.82.  

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 8 3/4-cents at 5.22. 

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 5.19 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.    

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed down 13-cents at 8.78 3/4.

November soybeans closed lower on Monday despite a friendly acreage and production estimate from the USDA. The USDA estimated soybean acres at 76.700 million planted acres and 75.900 million harvested acres. The USDA held its projected yield at 48.5 bpa. and ending bean stocks fell to 755 million bushels. However, spillover weakness from corn and wheat pulled soybeans lower on the day. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.90 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.90 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.32 1/2.  

December soybean meal closed down $5.20 at 298.50. 

December soybean meal closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 316.40. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 297.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.  

December soybean oil closed up 10-pts at 30.05. 

December soybean oil closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Monday as it extends last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 30.18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79. First support is July's low crossing at crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60.     

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October hogs closed up $0.10 at $67.08. 

October hogs closed higher on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.89. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 81.98. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 61.50. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  

October cattle closed down $3.00 at 103.75. 

October cattle closed limit down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 103.27 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 110.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 112.39. First support is today's low crossing at 103.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.27. 

October Feeder cattle closed down $4.50 at $133.75. 

October Feeder cattle closed limit down on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 131.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140.72 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 147.45. First support is today's low crossing at 133.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 131.95.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 9.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.   

September cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 21.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

October sugar closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.84 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October extends last-week's decline, weekly support crossing at 10.80 is the next downside target. 

December cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 54.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.11 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.