metmike:So maybe this will destroy us just before the fake climate crisis does (-:
There has been enough of them coming close or hitting the earth
Along with earth quakes, forest fires, plastic in everything, including the air we breathe living on top and in our waste, enough nuclear power to destroy us it's a wonder we have survived this long
We are responsible for our own disaster, so not much bothers me any more, even if it comes from outer space
Ever since I was old enough to read the world was coming to an end in X number of yrs.
Alright, regarding Apophis, I actually have something to share on this one.
Sometime back around 2013, Neil DeGrasse Tyson (the somewhat famous modern astrophysicist) did an interview at a university with Stephen Colbert. You can find the entire interview on YouTube.
During the Q&A section, an audience member asked Neil about Apophis, this is what he had to say:
https://youtu.be/7BHQIasisqY?t=3040
*Hopefully that link works and loads at the correct time slot.
Now, here is the short version of what Neil has to say.
> An asteroid the size of the Rose Bowl (Mike's article specifically states that it is 340 meters across)
> Discovered December 2004 headed towards earth, which is also not unusual
> Calculations show there is a CHANCE of it hitting the earth in 2036 with a close approach in 2029 (which Mike's article mentions)
> Best estimates (during Neil's interview) state that the chance of it hitting in 2036 is several in a million
NOW, here comes the important part of Neil's response and why you really shouldn't worry about this.
IF it hits, it will likely hit the pacific ocean, plunge to a depth of 3 miles and then explode. When it explodes, it will cause cavitation sending waves of tsunamis. The projected impact point in the ocean is approximately 600km out from Santa Monica Beach, California. The worst tsunami would be about 5 stories tall and is projected to take out the entire west coast of the united states.
Yes this all sounds really bad and incredibly destructive, but here is the next key point from Neil: Nobody has to die!
We would know well in advance if the asteroid is on course to actually hit us. People can be evacuated/re-located. Buildings and infrastructure can be rebuilt.
I respect Neil as an astrophysicist and a modern speaker of science to the public, however, it's a shame that more recently my respect for him has been tarnished by his promotion of the climate crisis.
Thanks so much for this wonderful video madmechanic!
Neil is probably the most charismatic, flambyount and gifted science communicator of our time. He is also a brilliant scientist and much smarter than me about alot of things.
However, with 100% absolute certainty, he is not smarter about climate and weather.
And I'm not trying to make a case that I'm brilliant.............I just have all the data and facts, 37 years of actually observing the atmosphere and the most important thing that he lacks, an open mind that lets in the evidence, even when it contradicts the theory.
He constantly calls people like me "deniers" and that we believe the earth is flat and we don't believe in science.
You only have to read my 2 dozen climate discussions to know that I have rock solid evidence to substantiate every single point. I gather the evidence............then go where it takes me.............and it says that Neil is wrong.
I've searched to find where he ever has provided a shred of evidence to support his views but his position is that we all have to believe in the mainstream scientific point of view(from the expert atmospheric scientists) because the majority of them say its so.
In his world, an atmospheric scientist like me can't exist. I would love to have him over to our house and show him this data(if he would open his mind). I am not saying this to call names because he is brilliant but he is either in total denial of all the empirical data of the real weather and climate world or, most likely too busy in his own field of expertise to do the research himself..................so, he believes maybe naively, that he should just trust the message that he gets about the science from the gate keepers.
Climate science has been hijacked right under his nose and he is completely oblivious to it because climate science is not his area of expertise.
Another element that I think effects his belief system on this. As a brilliant astrophysicist, he has beliefs in numerous theories about the universe. Many of them are built on models(created by scientists that program computers with data and theories they think are plausible).
He is huge into theoretical astrophyics. Observational astrophysics too of course, which is based on observations that confirm with almost absolute certainty what's going on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrophysics
"Theoretical astrophysicists use a wide variety of tools which include analytical models (for example, polytropes to approximate the behaviors of a star) and computational numerical simulations. Each has some advantages. Analytical models of a process are generally better for giving insight into the heart of what is going on. Numerical models can reveal the existence of phenomena and effects that would otherwise not be seen.[27][28]
Theorists in astrophysics endeavor to create theoretical models and figure out the observational consequences of those models. This helps allow observers to look for data that can refute a model or help in choosing between several alternate or conflicting models."
metmike: The entire climate crisis is based on the outcome of the results of the most extreme global climate models. These models do exist as well as those with less extreme outcomes. Incredibly, much of the alarm is based purely on the choice of the gatekeepers to use the most extreme models.
The observations, however are greatly under performing the models, indicating that they've made the wrong choice of models.
The observations also include massive benefits to our greening planet, which the gatekeepers do not share.
The observations also include extremes, almost all of which have occurred in the past and are expected..........but people don't have weather records on their computers to see things or remember things like 6 major hurricanes hitting the East Coast in 1954/55 during a period of global cooling.
Imagine if that happened today?
People just don't know and neither does brilliant Neil. Bill Nye is the exact same way.
They are using their reputations as science educators with gifted acting/communication skills and selling themselves as experts in another scientific field that they are clueless about. And what they are really selling is a political belief system not science because their position on the climate crisis is clearly ANTI science:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Atlantic_hurricane_season
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1955_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Sorry to criticize Neil. I still think he is the best, outside of this realm.
If one of the smartest people on the planet(in his field of science) can be wrong about the climate crisis, how can the average person be expected to get it right???
Even my wife, on several occasions has said to me "How do you know that you are not the one that is wrong and everybody else is right?"
The data is the authentic data. The observations are the observations. I have the data going back to when data is available and 37 years worth of real time observations. Those that believe in a climate crisis ignore the objective data/observations.........about the weather, the climate, the biosphere and all of life on this greening planet.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27864/
The planet IS warming(at 1.3 deg./century) and we are having heavier rains and heat waves are a bit worse in the hottest time of year in some places in some years and the seas are rising (just over 1 inch/decade) but most of life considers this an optimum and the benefits are greater than the negatives to life, including humans.
That's why they called it the Holocene climate OPTIMUM the last time that it was much warmer than this(in the high latitudes that are warming the most right now):
you wrote "....If one of the smartest people on the planet(in his field of science) can be wrong about the climate crisis, how can the average person be expected to get it right???"'
People need to visit the MarketForum and read metmike's comments
Coming back to his comments....
Even though modern astronomy can predict the course of various objects with remarkable accuracy, the comment about the a few in a million chance tells us that they do not know exactly, how this rock is going to confront our planet. If so, how can he say that an impact would occur 600 miles from Santa Monica???? A few hours of inaccuracy, and the impact would be in NY, or Australia. or (heavens forbid), in Somalia
Nevertheless, when that time comes, we better stock up on beer.