The threat of hurricane Dorian is affecting the cotton market right now:
Here is a production map for cotton. This one shows the % production by state.
Texas produces 38% of the cotton crop and most of that is grown in the panhandle, so the weather there is huge.
Georgia is 2nd , producing less than half of what TX does but is very important.
It's actually been very dry in the Southeast, with drought and they could use several inches of rain at this time of year when its so dry.
Crop ratings plunged a whopping 6% from the gd/ex category on Monday because of this:
But not high winds or excessive rains, which is a potential if Dorian tracks over cotton country.
The forecast below will be updated to add rains in the Southeast since the latest track for Dorian is MUCH MUCH farther west.
Still the threat to the cotton crop with the current forecast looks minimal..............as mentioned, it could actually end up causing beneficial rains.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Mike,
Thanks for starting this thread. Whereas significant losses could occur, I agree that they won’t be nearly as large as those from Michael due to way fewer open bolls and very likely not as strong a hit since Michael was uncommonly very bad. But prices are much lower than last year and west TX has been too dry. So, the total bounce % could still be similar.
The cotton threads last Fall on Michael were some of the best ever at MarketForum, led by dozens of your posts with comprehensive data/analysis!
In copying the links below and reading them, there is no doubt that they were THE best ever here and maybe anywhere on the effects on cotton production to the 2018 crop............better than places that charge hefty fees to receive information like that!
Threads on Michael
Cotton 42 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Nov. 7, 2018, 5:07 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/16882/
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Cotton: non-Michael harvest related wx issues 13 responses
Started by WxFollower - Oct. 12, 2018, 3:45 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15065/
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Cotton and hurricane Michael
18 responses |
Started by metmike - Oct. 8, 2018, 2:02 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/14719/
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Hurricane Michael
15 responses |
Started by metmike - Oct. 8, 2018, 1:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/14717/
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Invest 91L/possible future Michael in W Caribbean as of 10/5
10 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Oct. 5, 2018, 3:37 p.m.
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Posts/threads of the week-2
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/15362/
Started by metmike - Oct. 16, 2018, 5:53 p.m.
We normally would bestow honors for this illustrious award to just one post or thread. However, there were numerous comprehensive threads/posts on Hurricane Michael and the effects of it as well as Texas weather on cotton, so we listed a number of threads/posts.
The best post, by WxFollower, that got things rolling is featured at the top.
https://www.marketforum.com/library/
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Re: Posts/threads of the week-2
By metmike - Oct. 19, 2018, 2:10 p.m.
Just patting Larry on the back again for seeing major Hurricane Michael, days before this storm was significant.
Thank you, Mike. I see CT is all over the place today and was down pretty sharply at one point early this morning. Profit-taking for short term longs??