My prediction is that Trump looses in 2020 and I even voted for him in 2016.

I agree with that assessment Richard. He has too many enemies and people that greatly despise him.

They despise him so much that they will vote to obliterate the industry that they make a living on and justify it because the hatred is blinding so many people from seeing realities. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/38089/

Personally, I think that if agriculture ever puts 2+2 together on the Green New Deal which like the Climate Accord, by design, intends to obliterate agriculture, that the farming community vote will be extraordinarily lopsided in Trumps favor.

However, I think the brainwash is too powerful and right now, 2+2=10 in many minds.

I was thinking that $8 gasoline would F** people up and Trump would loose.

remember, last time around  All the indicators were wrong. 

polls were wrong.  the betting houses were wrong.  and the futures markets were wrong.  

If Trump has a good economy and has resolved the trade war,  he has a shot.  But Trump has created a new phenomena.  People will deny they'll vote for him to pollsters and yet still vote for him.  It's just too unfashionable for some to fess up.

Bear, I would push back slightly on your assessment that all the polls and pundits were wrong.  (I certainly was wrong)

The RCP avg of polls showed Hillary Clinton with a 4 point lead on Trump on the eve of the 2016 election.  She won by 3 points.

The 538 model by Nate Silver showed Clinton with a 75% chance of winning and Trump with a 25% chance.  Well, 1 in 4 is not the same as being wrong IMO.  That's better than the roll of the dice cube.  He also predicted that Trump was 4 times more likely than Clinton to win an Electoral victory while losing the popular vote.  (Trump 2.8% chance to Clinton's 0.7%)

I agree with Tim that Trump over performs most poll numbers by 2-3 points.

I agree with Tim on his last point. That being people will not fess up to voting for Trump. But will that be enough this time??? I think not.

I doubt he gets a trade deal.

Trump will throw money at the AG sector. he will ask what the Dems are doing for AG. The Dem candidate will reply that Trump started this trade war and he owns it. Dem answer. It will take a Dem to resolve this mess, since Trump has caused more problems.

I doubt the economy is going great due to Chinese tit for tat tariff

 42% of working age people are not working. the gov't skews the numbers, but a lot of people know there is nothing, but flipping burgers, which they don't want to do. Where are all those high paying jobs promised. The economy runs on the domestic service sector

This time we have a  voting bloke of 25-40 yr old Bernie supporters that sat out the last election

 A person would think it would be so easy for Trump to destroy the socialist agenda of any Dem, once the debates start,

You and I may not like a socialist agenda, but a lot of  25 - 40 yr old people have been left out of the  democratic agenda

  That socialist agenda may be exactly what the 25-40 yr oid voter wants to hear

I think the 25-40 yr old voter will put any Dem over the top and defeat Trump, unless Trump finds a message these people will buy into. DO you really think Trump can relate to 25-40 yr oid voters. Look at his rallies and see how many young people show up

It could be the reverse and many young people will not fess up to socialist values

SO far this voting bloke is strongly Dem, and followers of the AOC kind of thinking. They want to save the Polar bears, tax the rich, get out from under student loans, find a job other than flipping burgers or being a waitress

Everybody else is mostly a 50/50 split, thus the 25-40 voting block will vote Dem, as they believe any thing has to be better, than Trump

That is why Trump won, because a lot of Dems stayed home, but he has worn out his welcome, with the younger voting bloke that has lost faith in him, if very many ever did believe him

However, this is not 2016

A new block of voters will go to the poles in 2020

Dems win easily

I contend that even for all Trump's craziness, the election is still his to lose.  The Democratic choices are so bad it boggles the mind.  I think if someone could get control of Trump's Twitter account and filter it, his approval rating would shoot up 10%.  There are times I think he is purposely seeing how outrageous he can be.  When you think about how insulting some of the things are that he does and he still gets a 50/50 chance, goes to show us and all politicians, how off base our elected officials are in terms of what the average American wants.  

Democratic Candidate.  Can you imagine.  If we all collectively think about the Russians disappearing, I'm sure it will happen!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/marianne-williamson-hurricane-dorian-tweet-power-of-mind-153247046.html

Wayne said

"I think the 25-40 yr old voter will put any Dem over the top and defeat Trump, unless Trump finds a message these people will buy into. DO you really think Trump can relate to 25-40 yr oid voters. Look at his rallies and see how many young people show up"

I have been to one of Trumps rallies, and who I saw there was middle working class people that see someone who fights for them. These 'forgotten' people will vote. They don't protest but they WILL vote.

JMHO Cutworm

I doubt the economy is going great due to Chinese tit for tat tariff

 42% of working age people are not working. the gov't skews the numbers, but a lot of people know there is nothing, but flipping burgers, which they don't want to do. Where are all those high paying jobs promised. The economy runs on the domestic service sector

You keep saying things like this,   My department hires young people  all the time, generally starting no lower than 60K and they advance rapidly if they put in the effort. And we're not unique. Our biggest problem is finding qualified applicants and then competing with all the other people looking for qualified applicants.

Please present some actual data that shows the economy is weak and there are no jobs. I have plenty of data to the contrary,  but perhaps I am overlooking something.