ISM Indicates contraction in MFG For August
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Started by TimNew - Sept. 3, 2019, 11:20 a.m.

ISM came in at 49.1, showing agreement with other less reliable indicators that MFG is slowing down.  The weakness was shown across the board from new orders to backlog.  Anything below 50 is contraction.

By gfn - Sept. 5, 2019, 9:33 a.m.
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"Showing agreement with other less reliable data" 



Last week it was cherry picking now it's less reliable. All I know is it was fortelling for those not blinded by politics. 

By TimNew - Sept. 5, 2019, 9:45 a.m.
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As opposed to those blinded by ignorance?

ISM is showing contraction for the first time since 2016.  It's one of the most reliable metrics out there, and that is the consensus of every knowledgeable person who watches things like this. 

And note,  I did not use a sweeping and likely inaccurate generalization in my heading like "Manufacturing is contracting for the first time in 10 years" or "Manufacturing Hiring is grinding to a halt".  Simply that ISM is indicating a slow down.   There are many other measures out there that do not confirm a general contraction,  but it's certainly something to watch for.

I'm offering constructive criticism tho I suspect it's falling on deaf ears.

By metmike - Sept. 5, 2019, 11:02 a.m.
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gfn's "less reliable" indicator, this time did a good job.

Though I trust that he will start using a source or link for a number(s) that he provides as I've requested a handful of times(instead of just posting what looks like a random number embedded in a new thread, leaving me to scrabble around trying to verify it-or Tim in the past) 

By TimNew - Sept. 5, 2019, 11:09 a.m.
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It conforms to the ISM, which is positive,  but it certainly did not show the 1st contraction in MFG in 10 years as his subject line claimed.

By TimNew - Sept. 5, 2019, 11:28 a.m.
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I think I need to spend a little more time on this.

ISM and PMI reports are surveys.  The ask purchasing and production managers a series of questions,  some based on hard data and some on subjective opinions.  They are pretty good predictors/indicators of how things are going, but they aren't perfect (Of the two ISM tends to be more reliable).

But like the housing index, which is a survey of builders,  it doesn't always reliably predict housing trends. I've seen high housing index readings followed by a drop in starts and permits, and vice versa.

Durable goods and factory orders for both durable and non-durables had a very strong showing in the last week.  It doesn't predict where we'll be In a month,  but, to at least some degree, it's encouraging and somewhat contradicts the PMI and ISM surveys.

In the final analysis,  you can't look at one monthly PMI reading and assume that MFG is in contraction/expansion.  It's a warning sign, and not the most reliable one out there.

By metmike - Sept. 5, 2019, 11:45 a.m.
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Thanks Tim!

That's exactly why sources are important. I sure as heck don't follow that stuff and had no idea about any of what you just explained in detail.

A source, at least gives us a starting point for a discussion and especially with an opportunity to learn more as well as verification that it isn't a made up number or more fake news which is defining our world today.

We are the ANTI-fake news forum (-: